If states agree to Colorado River water cuts (which is iffy), they may not be big enough
Only a few days remain for the seven Colorado River basin states to agree on a plan to use drastically less water.
Bureau of Reclamation Director Camille Touton has directed all seven states to trim 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water next year – a cut that likely would have to be sustained through 2026. Maybe longer.
And if they don’t agree on a plan to do so by mid-August, the bureau has made it clear that it will step in to make the cut for them. Because Lake Mead and Lake Powell are tanking in a hurry, putting the infrastructure it oversees at risk.
But the states still seem far from a deal.
States keep putting the brunt of cuts on Arizona
The Desert Sun reports that California might be willing to cut up to 500,000 acre-feet, though sources told the newspaper that’s still a moving target. The state is expected to consume more than 4.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water this year.
Meanwhile, the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico have already said that because the Lower Basin states of California, Arizona and Nevada are doing more to deplete the river, they should bear the brunt of the cuts.
That would leave Nevada and Arizona to make up the difference.
Who's doing what: Metro Phoenix cities start cutting back on water use
But as John Fleck, a water policy expert from the University of New Mexico, pointed out in a blog, “Nevada’s share of the river is so tiny that its contribution is couch cushion change, a rounding error. That leaves, in round numbers, 1.5 million acre-feet of water to come out of Arizona just to get to Touton’s bottom line number for additional conservation.”
Considering that CAP delivered about a million acre-feet of water this year, that would mean completely wiping out Colorado River water for users in metro Phoenix and Tucson – and then cutting another 500,000 acre-feet or so from on-river users, such as Yuma-area farmers.
In a state that is expected to consume about 2.1 million acre-feet of Colorado River water this year.
Even if we agree, 2 million acre-feet isn't enough
Let’s say a miracle happens and the seven states agree to this or some other plan to divvy up the cuts.
The only target anyone talks about anymore is 2 million acre-feet.
Which is shy of where Reclamation’s modeling says we need to be.
The bureau estimates that we’d need to cut at least 2.5 million acre-feet of water use each year, simply to keep Lake Mead and Lake Powell on life support.
More from Allhands: We've lost sight of the goal for Colorado River cuts
And if we fail to save enough to meet that target, the modeling suggests we’ll have to cut more in later years just to maintain those same bargain-basement lake levels.
A 2.5 million acre-feet cut doesn’t even begin to build back water levels. Nor does it leave much of a buffer should conditions worsen.
Yet states are struggling to find 2 million acre-feet.
It may take several passes to get there
Maybe the $4 billion the U.S. Senate promised to Reclamation over the weekend will change things.
Maybe that will make parties more eager to deal – though there are plenty of unanswered questions about how much cash might be available for paid fallowing, system conservation or habitat restoration, the three areas loosely defined in the Inflation Reduction Act.
But fair warning: If states agree to a 2 million acre-feet deal, we’ll be back to do more.
And if Reclamation mandates 2.5 million acre-feet, we could still wind up in this place again.
Because we’re still riding the razor’s edge between supply and demand.
Whether states agree or Reclamation mandates action, it may take a few passes to reach a more sustainable point.
Reach Allhands at joanna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com. On Twitter: @joannaallhands.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: A 2 million acre-feet water cut won't save the Colorado River
