The state of the Oscars race: who's in the lead after the big film festivals?

With Venice and Toronto out of the way, there’s an ultra-competitive best actress race shaping up – but a lack of major best picture contenders

By the end of September last year, after the annual onslaught of festival premieres, we’d already seen seven of the year’s nine best picture nominees. Again, we’re back at the informed speculation stage: the reviews are in, the first trophies have been handed out and we can start to assemble a loose, yet likely, list of potential candidates.

The race officially kicked off in January and although Sundance has become a less reliable starting point for awards-friendly films, this year did offer up three major contenders. The most ecstatic reviews were given to I Am Love director Luca Guadagnino’s heartfelt gay romance Call Me by Your Name, which also received special notices for leads Armie Hammer and breakout star Timothee Chalamet. Both could be in with a chance but the buzz is strongest around A Serious Man star Michael Stuhlbarg who is close to being a best supporting actor lock for an emotive, much-talked-about scene at the end of the film.

The festival also saw the premiere of Mudbound, a second world war-set drama about racial division in Mississippi, which opened to acclaim for director Dee Rees, who could become the first black woman to receive a nomination for best director (there’s also best supporting actress heat around star Mary J Blige). It was bought by Netflix for an ambitious $12.5m but the company has struggled to break through to the Academy with any of their fiction films so far – unlike Amazon, who scored their first Oscar last year for Manchester by the Sea. The company was also the toast of Sundance with Kumail Nanjiani’s crowd-pleasing comedy The Big Sick, which became one of the summer’s big sleeper hits. Oscar-wise, Holly Hunter has a decent chance of a best supporting actress nod and the screenplay could get recognition while the film is likely to make a showing at the Golden Globes, given the often limited comedic contenders.

Cannes was low on awards-aiming films with Todd Haynes’s fantasy Wonderstruck failing to gather much support, but Tangerine director Sean Baker’s comedy drama The Florida Project was warmly received and star Willem Dafoe is likely to get a best supporting actor nod.

The opening film at Venice has become something of an Oscar indicator with Gravity, Birdman and La La Land all occupying the slot. This year saw the premiere of Alexander Payne’s high concept comedy Downsizing, which stars Matt Damon as a man who decides to be shrunk, and while initial reviews were warm, it lost steam in Telluride and Toronto. The film that emerged from the festival with most acclaim was Guillermo del Toro’s 60s-set romance/fantasy/horror hybrid The Shape of Water which picked up the festival’s major prize, the Golden Lion. It also continued to impress audiences in Telluride and Toronto and star Sally Hawkins is an early lock for best actress for her role as a mute cleaner who falls in love with a sea creature.

Venice also saw Frances McDormand secure a place in the category with a foul-mouthed performance as a grieving mother in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, a film that also generated buzz for co-star Sam Rockwell. It went on to win the people’s choice award at Toronto, a prize that’s previously been awarded to Room, La La Land and The Imitation Game. The debut of Darren Aronofsky’s darkly comic surrealist assault Mother! was met with divisive reviews and while most were impressed with Jennifer Lawrence, the film is too strange to repeat any Black Swan-style Oscar success. Michelle Pfeiffer’s sinister turn could sneak into the best supporting actress category, however. George Clooney’s Suburbicon was dead on arrival with middling reviews despite a cast including Matt Damon, Julianne Moore and Oscar Isaac, while Stephen Frears is unlikely to continue his streak of directing older female actors all the way to the best actress race, with Victoria and Abdul gaining little heat for star Judi Dench.

At Telluride, the best actor race gained its frontrunner with Gary Oldman’s transformative portrayal of Winston Churchill in Joe Wright’s Darkest Hour and co-star Ben Mendelsohn heading for a best supporting actor nomination as well. Reviews have been strong and it’s exactly the sort of prestige British drama that the Academy likes to reward. There was also a warm reception for Annette Bening’s performance as Oscar-winning actor Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool but the film itself is small and in a tough category she might struggle.

The Colorado-based festival saw the premiere of fact-based tennis drama Battle of the Sexes, a timely crowdpleaser that could see last year’s best actress winner Emma Stone get a nomination and Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut Lady Bird which has two awards-worthy performances from Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf as mother and daughter. The film continued to generate heat in Toronto, the press screenings proving the hardest to get into throughout the fest.

Almost immediately after, the best actress race became even more confused in Toronto with the arrival of Aaron Sorkin’s directorial debut Molly’s Game, which propelled two-time Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain into the race with her role as a resourceful “poker princess”. The film itself is likely to be an adapted screenplay contender as well and could nab Idris Elba a best supporting actor nomination. His other film at the festival, the romantic adventure The Mountain Between Us, emerged as a non-starter despite chemistry between him and Kate Winslet. It didn’t bomb quite as hard as Benedict Cumberbatch’s Thomas Edison biopic The Current War which was seen as one of the festival’s biggest disappointments alongside Halle Berry and Daniel Craig’s LA riots drama Kings.

Toronto then saw yet another big star added to the best actress race: six-time nominee Glenn Close. Her performance in marital drama The Wife was heaped with praise but the film still doesn’t have a distributor so her place in the race will depend on who, if anyone, picks it up in time. In a similar boat is Hostiles, a grim western with Christian Bale that’s been scoring fine reviews but also lacks distribution. If it’s bought in time then Bale could be joining Oldman and previous nominee James Franco who entered the fray with his role as Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist which will benefit from the Academy’s obsession with rewarding films about films. They’re also joined by Jake Gyllenhaal, whose performance in Boston marathon bombing drama Stronger was universally praised. The Tonya Harding skating comedy I, Tonya picked up some positive reviews but might prove too crude for the Academy. Allison Janney is a likely lock, however, for her role as Harding’s vicious mother.

Outside of the festivals, Christopher Nolan’s second world war hit Dunkirk is a strong contender for best picture and will also score well in many of the technical categories. A similar summer release failed to launch Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit which was a box office disappointment and didn’t receive the acclaim it needs for a big awards push. There’s been buzz around Get Out becoming a rare horror film to sneak in given its critical acclaim, but it seems like original screenplay recognition might be the most likely way in.

There are still a number of unseen films to come. The New York Film Festival will launch two major premieres: Richard Linklater’s road trip drama Last Flag Flying and Woody Allen’s 50s-set Wonder Wheel. There are also three films from Academy-approved directors on the way. Steven Spielberg’s political drama The Papers (which could see nods for Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep), Ridley Scott’s fact-based crime drama All the Money in the World (which could do well for stars Kevin Spacey, Michelle Williams and Mark Wahlberg) and Paul Thomas Anderson’s untitled film about fashion (which is likely to thrust Daniel Day-Lewis to the front of the race).

Ten safe nominee bets

Gary Oldman – best actor, Darkest Hour

Sally Hawkins – best actress, The Shape of Water

Jessica Chastain – best actress, Molly’s Game

Jake Gyllenhaal – best actor, Stronger

Michael Stuhlbarg – best supporting actor, Call Me by Your Name

Christopher Nolan – best director, Dunkirk

Allison Janney – best supporting actress, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf – best supporting actress, Lady Bird

Aaron Sorkin – best adapted screenplay, Molly’s Game

Willem Dafoe – best supporting actor, The Florida Project