State of the Union 2024: What to watch for

The annual State of the Union address is usually a ho-hum affair, marked by political pageantry and a lengthy speech by the president to Congress.

But in 2024, the event will focus the nation’s attention on a question that has become unavoidable for President Biden: Is he sharp enough to lead the country for another four years?

🤔 Will a 'senior moment' swamp the rest of the speech?

While the substance of what the president says will be the most important thing, this year’s State of the Union is also about Biden’s state of mind.

Biden’s performance on Thursday night will be analyzed by partisans and pundits looking to evaluate the president’s physical and mental stamina. A single slip of the tongue, misstatement or moment of confusion from Biden could overshadow the rest of his address in the minds of voters.

Biden is 81, and a recent special counsel report raised questions about his fitness for the job. These doubts had already been prominent in polling data — a result of both his advanced age and his at-times shaky delivery, not to mention relentless mockery from Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee in this November’s election.

• Biden and Trump have had memory issues. When does forgetfulness merit cognitive testing?

🇺🇲 Not your typical State of the Union

State of the Union speeches are a tradition in American politics that give the president an opportunity to articulate his priorities and project confidence and positivity. Most presidents usually include a line that “the state of the union is strong.”

Given the nation’s extraordinary political divisions ahead of what’s expected to be a fiercely acrimonious election, however, that notion will likely be a harder sell than usual.

Biden, for his part, will undoubtedly want to project strength and seek to redirect attention to Trump’s vulnerabilities.

💰 What Biden will want to take credit for

The White House wants credit for a booming economy. So far, however, polls indicate Americans have been pretty downbeat about the country’s economic situation, in large part because of the roaring inflation that shrank savings and purchasing power in Biden’s first few years in office.

Biden’s allies note that inflation has now cooled down considerably and that the U.S. has managed to dodge a recession predicted by many economists. They also say that inflation and other disruption was a natural consequence of an economy rousing itself from its pandemic slumber.

Critics, however, say that Biden’s own policies are what caused inflation to get out of control to begin with.

• What Biden gets wrong about 'price gouging' and 'corporate greed'

🚸 What will Biden say about the border?

Trump’s decision to thwart a bipartisan border security bill has given Biden an opportunity to blame the problems there on the GOP. Biden’s ability to make this argument could decide the election, as polls now routinely show that immigration and border security are top priorities for voters.

🐘 The elephant outside the room

To his opponents, Trump’s time in office was defined by his chaotic approach to the job, and ultimately by his effort to throw out the votes of millions of Americans in his attempt to overturn results of the 2020 election.

But Trump supporters focus on a record of general economic growth, along with judicial appointments they approve of and a country that avoided engaging in any major conflicts. And Trump has benefitted from being in the public spotlight less. Many Americans have either now forgiven or forgotten Trump’s outrage-driven approach to politics.

Now that the primaries are over, pundits and voters alike will be viewing Biden’s speech through the prism of an expected rematch with Trump.

📣 A tough crowd

Unlike a campaign rally, the president will be speaking to a crowd of both Democrats and Republicans.

Many of those Republicans will be openly hostile. And given internal Democratic Party divisions over U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza, he’ll be walking something of a tightrope with them as well.

According to CNN, citing a senior administration official, Biden "will announce that he's directing the US military to lead an emergency mission to establish a port in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast that can receive large ships carrying food, water medicine, and temporary shelters."

For many years, opposition party members would simply sit on their hands when the president of the other party said something they disagreed with.

But more recently, some members of Congress have heckled the president. In 2009, GOP South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson shouted “you lie!” at President Obama. Since winning the presidency, Biden has also been heckled by Republican House members like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Some Republicans may see heckling as one way to try to rattle Biden and cause him to misspeak. It’s the kind of thing that wouldn’t have been acceptable a decade or so ago, but is now a common feature of a more hostile, personal and performative politics.