Spring Outlook: Above normal temps, rainfall

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – On Thursday, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released its spring weather outlook for the months of April, May, and June.

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It is calling for above-normal temperatures in the Southeast. Likewise, it’s calling for above-normal precipitation.

(Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
(Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
(Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)
(Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

So, what does that mean as far as severe weather is concerned during our springtime months?

You may have heard that we’ve been in an El Nino pattern, and normally it is La Nina during the springtime that causes the most problems in the Southeastern United States. The El Nino is expected to transition to a La Nina, but not until later this summer.

News 2 Meteorologist Davis Nolan asked John Gottschalk of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center just what his thoughts were on our situation this year.

March can bring everything from snow to tornadoes

“If we were in a La Nina winter going into the spring, typically we have more “troughing” and the upper air pattern is more conducive to severe weather in the plains and also the Southeast and Midwest in that sort of situation,” Gottschalk explained. “But we don’t have that this year. We are sort of into a transition to ENSO Neutral (in between El Nino and La Nina), so right now there’s not much that can be said reliably or confidently with respect to the severe weather season in your area.”

Flooding is also a concern during our spring months in Middle Tennessee and South Kentucky.

The Spring Flood Outlook is calling for the possibility of minor flooding in our part of the country, meaning minimal or no property damage, though roads may be inundated during heavy rain events.

The good news is that although we are still seeing moderate drought conditions in our southwestern counties, the Seasonal Drought Outlook is calling for the likely removal of those conditions with the above-normal rainfall.

It should be emphasized that these are generalized seasonal outlooks and they don’t mean that we will not have any severe weather or flooding during the spring months.

We still always have to be prepared.

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