Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's Week 4 picks against the spread
A 7-2-1 Week 3 has got us pointed in the right direction. The overall record (12-16-2) is still ugly but a repeat of Week 3 gets us on the right side of .500.
USC at Utah (-3), 9 p.m. ET FRIDAY: USC is a hot mess right now. QB Max Browne has been benched and Sam Darnold is in his place. If the Trojans go to 1-3 things could get really ugly. Utah still beat BYU in Week 2 despite five turnovers. We’re taking the Utes because if USC was simply named, say, South Florida, the line is potentially 6 or 7.
Florida State (-5.5) at South Florida, Noon ET: Is this line an overreaction to FSU’s performance at Louisville. USF is no joke; Willie Taggart’s team has undergone a huge transformation over the past 18 months. This one will be competitive early but Florida State makes it a three-score game over the second half.
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-5.5), Noon ET: After watching the win over Georgia State it’s hard to think well of Wisconsin. Yes, the Badgers beat LSU, but is anyone impressed with LSU so far this season? Meanwhile, Michigan State shook off a sluggish Week 1 in a win over Notre Dame that was not as close as the 36-28 final score indicated. QB Alex Hornibrook’s first start for the Badgers is a loss.
Kent State (+43.5) at Alabama, Noon ET: Upset alert! No, not at all. This game isn’t going to be competitive. But We have a feeling Alabama coach Nick Saban will make sure his team eases off the accelerator in the second half with a four or five-score lead that never gets threatened. While the spread for this game is 43.5, the over/under is at 50. Good luck scoring, Kent State!
Wake Forest (+7.5) at Indiana, 3:30 p.m. ET: Did you know that Wake Forest has started the season 3-0? The Demon Deacons are one of four 3-0 teams in the ACC despite scoring the 12th-most points in the 14-team conference. We’re going to trust in the Deacs defense to keep this one close; the loser of this game could look back in November and wish this was a win for bowl eligibility purposes.
Florida (+6.5) at Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. ET: Prove it Tennessee. Despite the absence of cornerback Cam Sutton and other key players, this game is tailor-made for the Vols to break the Florida losing streak. Will it happen? A Tennessee win won’t be a surprise, but UT’s offensive line has struggled through the first three weeks. It’s hard to dominate a game getting pushed around along the line.
BYU at West Virginia (-7), 3:30 p.m. ET: This line is so close because BYU’s games have been so close. The Cougars are 1-2 and have won by 2, lost by 1 and lost by 3. That’s rough. And the most points scored by the winner of any of those three games is 20. The Cougar defense has starred while the offense has struggled. And a struggling offense isn’t going to keep up with West Virginia on the road.
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LSU at Auburn (UNDER 44), 6 p.m. ET: Welcome to the overreaction bowl where the dominant topic in the SEC afer this game will be regarding the future of the losing coach. And sorry, Auburn, we think the talk will center around Gus Malzahn. Trying to offer up an accurate prediction of this game is impossible given the performance of both teams’ offenses. So we’ll go with the under and watch the final score be 44-41.
Stanford at UCLA (OVER 46), 8 p.m. ET: UCLA scored 17 points in its win over BYU in Week 3 while Stanford has scored an efficient 26 and 27 in its two wins this season. Let’s buck the trend. The winner of this game breaks 30.
Washington (-12.5) at Arizona, 10:30 p.m. ET: These are the games you have to take care of if you want to be a legitimate contender. Arizona has not been impressive throughout the first quarter of the season while Washington has a matchup at home vs. Stanford next week. The Huskies get the TD to cover late in the fourth.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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