South Florida, Panhandle could be especially vulnerable this hurricane season, AccuWeather says

Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·5 min read

One of the first official forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is out and it doesn't look good, especially for Florida.

AccuWeather is predicting an "explosive" hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster.

“All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”

Based on similar weather patterns in prior years, Florida is among the states that could be especially vulnerable this year, along with Texas and the Carolinas.

What is AccuWeather's 2024 Atlantic season forecast?

  • 20-25 named storms

  • 8-12 hurricanes

  • 4-7 major hurricanes

  • 4-6 direct U.S. impacts

  • Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk

  • Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season

2024 Atlantic hurricane season could break all-time record of 30 named storms

The AccuWeather 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast calls for 20 to 25 named storms. Eight to 12 of those storms are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes. Four to six storms could directly impact the United States.

“There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” said DaSilva.

Why do predictions put Florida at risk in 2024?

Florida's Panhandle and South Florida could face heightened risk from tropical cyclones this year.

That determination was based on previous history, looking for weather patterns similar to the ones occurring in 2024, DaSilva said.

"We came up with 11 years — analogs — that matched a similar pattern expected this year. We plotted where those storms made landfall."

What meteorologists determined were that clusters of storms made landfall in Texas; the Florida Panhandle, including the Tallahassee and Big Bend areas and South Florida; and the Carolinas.

"Florida is always vulnerable to tropical systems, but the thinking this year is that in 2024 the state could be especially more vulnerable based on clues from previous years," DaSilva said.

What areas of Florida could see the most impact in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?

What areas in Florida could be especially vulnerable this hurricane season?

DaSilva said Southeast Florida, especially from West Palm Beach down to Miami and the Keys, could be a little more vulnerable to tropical cyclones than the Southwest coast. Also at heightened risk this year is Florida's Panhandle.

In 2016, the most recent year with weather patterns similar to what meteorologists are seeing in 2024, Hurricane Matthew grazed the east coast of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in South Carolina as a Category 1 storm on Oct. 7.

Winds over 100 mph were recorded at Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, according to the National Weather Service.

Storm surge of as much as 9 feet caused flooding in Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville, along with low-lying parts of surrounding counties. A total of 17.01 inches of rainfall were reported at Cape Canaveral Air Station, according to NOAA.

Also in 2016, both Tropical Storm Colin and Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall in Florida's Big Bend area.

What about Saharan dust? Will that help reduce the number of tropical cyclones in 2024?

Saharan dust in the past has helped prevent storms from developing. Don't count on that happening in 2024.

Tropical systems need water temperatures to hit 80 degrees to develop.

"We're seeing waters in the Caribbean and the Main Development Region are already warm enough" for tropical cyclones to develop, DaSilva said.

The Main Development Region where tropical cyclones typically develop stretches from the western Caribbean to the coast of Africa.

"There might be a little dust. Most tropical systems — 80% of them —originate off Africa. If the African wave train is more active, dust may not have that much of an impact since more moisture is coming off the coast," DaSilva said.

Could there be a tropical cyclone before the official start of hurricane season?

Yes, and May storms typically form closer to the coast, meaning there is less time for residents to react.

Pre-season tropical cyclones often develop out of cold fronts that move down and stall in the Gulf of Mexico. Those storms could "pop up quickly," DaSilva said.

Rapid intensification: A meteorologist's greatest fear

Rapid intensification occurs when a storm strengthens rapidly. The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone — whether a tropical storm or hurricane — intensifies by at least 35 mph over 24 hours.

Those sudden spikes have marked some of worst hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the National Hurricane Center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY.

Out of the 10 hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 104 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification.

"As a result of warm waters, rapid intensifications are occurring more frequently," DaSilva said.

"Ian hit warm Gulf waters and exploded. What we've seen over last few years is that warm waters extend farther down, rather than just at the surface. That provides fuel for storms," DaSilva said.

"When water temperatures are 80 degrees hundreds of feet down, warm water replaces warm surface water, which is why we're seeing systems rapidly intensify. That's my greatest fear: when a tropical storm or weak hurricane explodes."

What should you do now, before hurricane season starts?

DaSilva said what he recommends, especially for those who live along the coast, is:

  • Have a hurricane plan so you know what you're going to do, especially if you need to react quickly and a system rapidly intensifies at the last minute.

  • Check your evacuation zone to see if it has been updated based on the latest computer models.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: 2024 hurricane season impact on Florida. Panhandle, South Florida risk