Sources: Yankees step up pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton as a trade from the Marlins increases in likelihood
On the day the match finally met the tinder and kindling that has sat lonely in the hot stove for far too long, the most delicious of possibilities started looking more like an inevitability. After trade talks between the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins accelerated in seriousness Friday, Giancarlo Stanton, the National League MVP and home run king, could soon be wearing pinstripes, multiple sources familiar with the discussions told Yahoo Sports early Saturday.
While the exact package that would go back to the Marlins was not yet clear, the confluence of New York’s desire to acquire Stanton, the Marlins’ yearning to dump the remaining $295 million on his contract and Stanton’s acquiescence to head to the Bronx created the perfect storm for a deal. Because the size of Stanton’s 10-year contract complicates any potential trade, one source cautioned against calling it close to done. At the same time, two others said there is more than smoke. This could light into full-on conflagration sooner than later.
The Marlins’ desire to rid themselves of Stanton’s contract leaves them with no strong possibilities outside of New York. Stanton used his no-trade clause to reject overtures from the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ pursuit of the 28-year-old still has not kicked into overdrive and, though it could at any time, shows little likelihood of doing so. And with the Winter Meetings likely to set off a flurry of spending and shrink the market even more, the Marlins understand their best deal may come from New York.
Even as the Yankees try to sneak under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold, which would reset the penalty they pay on any money over that number, the prospect of adding Stanton to a lineup with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and an assortment of other mashers was indeed too tempting not to consider in earnest. The Yankees’ ability to send back hefty contracts and offset Stanton’s $25 million luxury-tax number was real. So, too, is their prospect depth, with which Marlins executive Gary Denbo – who joined them from the Yankees this offseason – is intimately familiar.
And so started the game of chicken that will show just how desperate the Marlins’ new ownership, shepherded by CEO Derek Jeter, is to clear its ugly books of American sports’ largest contract. The Marlins bungled the talks from the jump, not including Stanton in early conversations and leading to the embarrassment Friday of him scuttling agreed-upon deals with the Giants and Cardinals. Never will Stanton have as much value as he does coming off a 59-homer season, and while the Marlins could try to deal him again in July or next offseason, the risk of his contract becoming a complete albatross make a deal now the best option.
What’s in it for the Yankees? On Friday afternoon, as the fallout from Shohei Ohtani signing with the Los Angeles Angels dissipated, a general manager wondered whether the next domino would be a trade of Stanton to the Yankees or Dodgers. His rationale on their pursuit of Stanton was simple and succinct: “Because. They. Can.”
The Yankees can in a number of ways. Sending Jacoby Ellsbury to Miami is the easiest. The Marlins also view the $70 million-plus left on his contract as a nonstarter. Chase Headley or Brett Gardner, who each count for $13 million each on the Yankees’ tax number and are free agents after the 2018 season, are potential centerpieces around which mid-level prospects and perhaps another major league contract could be packaged. Starlin Castro is another possibility; though he comes with a lower luxury-tax number, he also has a ready-made replacement at second in Gleyber Torres, arguably the top prospect in baseball.
Were the Marlins not so keen on lowering their payroll, they could pay down Stanton’s deal and receive the sort of young talent that would help rebuild their bereft farm system – not necessarily a Torres but others of his ilk. They’ve shown little desire to take that approach, playing right into the Yankees’ hands and making a potential deal more and more attractive.
Any fear that the Yankees are tumbling back into bad habits – spend, spend, spend on aging veterans – is unfounded, even with Stanton’s deal going through his age-37 season and including an opt-out after 2020. As New York has built an enviable young core, austerity measures have allowed a payroll that regularly pushed past $225 million to settle into a number that starts with a one. And while that keeps them among the game’s five highest, it comes not only with revenues that support it but a new collective-bargaining agreement friendlier to them than other recent ones.
The potential deal for Stanton resembles the one that sent Alex Rodriguez to New York, only with the Marlins refusing to pay down a sum anywhere close to what Texas did when it dealt A-Rod. Even still, the parameters of a trade that satisfies both parties are clear enough that one person familiar with the talks said he would be shocked if it didn’t happen.
This being baseball, it all could fall apart spectacularly, and the Marlins could re-engage with other teams in hopes that Stanton’s desire to leave Miami forces him to consider other possibilities. The cudgel that is his no-trade clause makes that an eminently risky play, particularly with the limited options the Marlins have.
Which leaves them with little to do other than play ball with the Yankees. There is a deal to be made. The Marlins know it. The Yankees know it. And as the Winter Meetings start Monday in Orlando, the pressure to make it happen only grows.
