Solar eclipse weather forecast for New York: Here's what Accuweather predicts

It all comes down to one question - will Rochester's skies be clear or cloudy for the upcoming total solar eclipse on April 8?

Less than one month from now, millions of Americans from Texas to Maine will scramble to experience the total eclipse of the sun. Rochester is in the path of totality — where the moon completely darkens the sun — making it one of the best places to view the solar eclipse on Monday, April 8.

That is - if the weather cooperates.

Meteorologists from AccuWeather shared an early answer to that question last week and stressed that with the forecast nearly a month away, many factors can still impact what we will see - or won't see - on April 8.

AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter explained that the agency's eclipse forecast is based on the long-term historical average cloud cover data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and many others as a foundation,

"Then our long-range forecasters further identified weather patterns and trends that may potentially affect cloud cover to create a first look at the weather forecast for the day of the eclipse," Porter said.

Some parts of the nation - including southern Texas, the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes - have the best chance for favorable weather for April 8, based on the latest data, he said.

As of now, he said, "it appears that the Northeast faces the highest chance of clouds blocking the view of the total eclipse."

"There is a good possibility that a cold front will be moving across central and eastern U.S. near this time of the eclipse," Senior AccuWeather Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in the news release. The exact location of this front could be the difference between a cloud-filled and a cloud-free sky.

However, cloud-free weather could still win out in these areas on April 8, AccuWeather said. More detailed, specific forecasts will be available in the weeks ahead.

The National Weather Service in Buffalo also published maps on cloud cover climatology for April 8, based on an average of years between 1979 and 2022.

"While early April is historically a cloudy time period in the eastern Great Lakes, there can still be sunny days in early April," according to the Weather Service. "Also of note, this cloud climatology includes days with high, thin overcast when at least some view of the sun can still be available."

The average high temperature for April 8 in Rochester is 53 degrees. In the past 23 years, the Weather Service recorded measurable precipitation in Rochester 44% of the time and measurable snow 19% of the time

Solar eclipse map: Past weather data shows cities' chances for clear skies along Eclipse path

Select your location on the map to see eclipse times, peak sun coverage and likely levels of cloudiness during the eclipse. Lighter dots indicate a greater chance of clear skies. Don't see a map? Click here.

Weather in Rochester NY: Based on past weather, where are skies likely to be clear for the eclipse? 

Based on past weather data, of all the states in the path of totality — where the moon completely covers the sun — Texas has the best chance of clear skies.

Specifically, Brady, Texas, the geographical center of the state, is predicted to have the least cloud cover, based on historical averages.

Parts of Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania and New York (including Rochester) might not have the same experience, as these areas in the path of totality are more likely to see cloudy skies. On March 12, the map gave Rochester a 34.2% chance of clear skies. At the same time, Tonawanda (Erie County) has a 39.1% chance of clear skies, Watertown (Jefferson County) has a 46.7% chance of clear skies and Plattsburgh (Clinton County) has a 47.5% chance of clear skies.

Solar eclipse 2024 totality map

Using this map, find your location to see when the eclipse begins and ends and how much of the sun will be covered at its peak. Dark red dots along the path of totality represent areas that will experience a total solar eclipse, and all other orange areas will see the moon partially cover the sun. Don't see a map? Click here.

Includes reporting by USA Today reporter Doyle Rice

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Solar eclipse weather forecast in NY: Here's what Accuweather predicts