After smart maneuvering, cap challenges await Dolphins in spring. Important things to know

Brandon Shore, the Dolphins’ senior vice president of football and business administration, has been a salary cap magician in recent months, as general manager Chris Grier kept adding talented players to the roster.

Even after lavishing tens of millions on Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, Emmanuel Ogbah and trade pickup Bradley Chubb, the Dolphins aren’t in “cap hell.”

But they are in a “cap heck” — something of a difficult, dicey position but one that can be managed.

Per overthecap.com, the Dolphins will enter the offseason with just $521,774 in cap space for 2023, a figure that could be buttressed a bit by the $5.1 million that the Dolphins currently have in 2022 carryover space.

Andy Elisburg has been a cap savant for the Heat for years — one of the best in the business — and Shore’s work during the past year was similarly inspired.

But Shore will need to be even more inspired next spring to navigate what’s ahead.

Fourteen things to keep in mind as the Dolphins face their biggest cap challenge in years:

▪ Beyond fullback Alec Ingold, there’s not a single Dolphins running back under contract for 2023.

So at least $5 million in space, potentially more, must be carved out to re-sign Raheem Mostert (who’s earning $1.2 million) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($1.1 million) if Miami decides to do so. Both could get raises.

▪ Though cornerback Byron Jones could return next season, it almost assuredly won’t be on his current contract.

His $13.5 million salary is nonguaranteed in 2023, and the Dolphins likely won’t pay that much to a player who is missing most - if not all — of the 2022 season.

He has a big 2023 cap hit ($18.8 million), and that cap hit drops only to $14.8 million if he’s cut before June 1 but $4.8 million if he’s cut after June 1.

So if the Dolphins want to release him after this season, waiting until after June 1 makes the most sense. But restructuring the contract with a pay cut - if Jones is amenable - well before June 1 would make even more sense.

▪ The Dolphins won’t be in any position to afford a veteran backup quarterback who’s as costly as Teddy Bridgewater, who’s earning $6 million this season. They will need to find somebody cheaper or hope Skylar Thompson is ready to assume the No. 2 job.

▪ Re-signing tight end Mike Gesicki, which already seemed unlikely, now looks unrealistic, too. Gesicki should command at least $10 million annually in free agency, and the Dolphins don’t have that kind of money unless they start chopping elsewhere.

Durham Smythe is under contract at a reasonable $3.2 million for next season (none guaranteed), with a $4.2 million cap hit. Miami could keep him as their starter or cut bait (with no 2023 dead money) and sign a reasonably priced alternative.

The Dolphins also must hope that Hunter Long and Tanner Conner are ready for more prominent roles next season.

▪ Impending free agent cornerback Nik Needham’s season-ending knee injury could allow the Dolphins to re-sign him to a cheap deal — far less than what he would have commanded had he remained healthy and played well for the remainder of 2022.

▪ Impending free agent Andrew Van Ginkel could command more money elsewhere, considering the Dolphins don’t have much cap space and considering there won’t be a ton of playing time behind Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, who are the team’s two long-term starting outside linebackers.

Van Ginkel has been playing about 25 snaps a game in the past month, and that could continue — or increase a bit — with Emmanuel Ogbah out for the year. Still, I wouldn’t rule out Van Ginkel returning; he’s liked and appreciated internally.

Melvin Ingram also is an impending free agent.

▪ What happens if Tua Tagovailoa - under team control through 2024 - requests a long-term extension next spring and the Dolphins agree to one? That could have a modest impact on the Dolphins’ 2023 cap.

As perspective, Kyler Murray’s five-year, $230 million extension in Arizona — signed in July — raised his 2022 cap number by $5.9 million, which was the pro-rated portion of a $29 million signing bonus.

His cap hits of $12.7 million this season and $16.0 million next season then jump to $51.9 million, $41.6 million, $55.6 million, $43.5 million and $46.4 million over the following five years.

So if the Dolphins give Tagovailoa a lucractive extension, the impact will be felt somewhat immediately but won’t be significantly felt for a couple of years.

Tagovailoa’s cap hit next season is $9.6 million.

▪ The Dolphins can free up additional cap space by restructuring contracts.

Some of the Dolphins’ 2023 cap numbers are jaw-dropping: $31.2 million for Hill, $22.2 million for Chubb, $20.4 million for Armstead, $18.8 million for Byron Jones, $17.4 million for Ogbah.

There are also sizable 2023 cap hits for Jerome Baker ($12.5 million), Christian Wilkins ($10.8 million) and Xavien Howard ($10.1 million).

Hill, Armstead, Chubb and Wilkins aren’t going anywhere, and Howard likely won’t be going anywhere, either.

Under Howard’s restructured contract, he has a small base salary in 2023 ($1.2 million) that’s fully guaranteed, plus a prorated bonus of $8.8 million.

His reasonable $10.1 million cap number in 2023 swells to $33.1 million if he’s cut before June 1 and $31.9 million if he’s traded before June 1.

If he’s cut after June 1, his 2023 Dolphins cap hit would be $9.9 million. If he’s traded after June 1, his Dolphins 2023 cap hit would be $8.8 million.

So there’s no reason to move on, even if his play doesn’t return to elite level this season.

▪ The Dolphins are in a condundrum with Ogbah, who’s out for the year with a triceps injury.

Keep in mind that Ogbah’s $15 million salary for 2023 is entirely guaranteed, and his $17.3 million 2023 cap number would mushroom to $21 million if he’s cut before June 1 and would stay $17 million if he’s cut after June 1, per overthecap.com.

But if he’s traded before June 1, the Dolphins would have a $6 million dead cap hit on Ogbah for 2023 but $11.4 million in cap savings. So a trade cannot be ruled out, though another team likely would want him to restructure.

▪ A trade could be the best way to resolve receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr’s future; he hasn’t played nearly as much as expected when he signed with Miami 11 days before Hill was acquired.

Keep in mind that $5 million of his $7 million salary next season is guaranteed. He has an $8 million cap hit in 2023.

But if he’s traded before June 1, there would be a $2 million dead money hit for the Dolphins for 2023 but a $6 million cap savings.

His $8 million cap hit in 2023 would drop to $1 million if he’s traded after June 1.

A trade seems to make sense to free up needed cap space.

▪ A few veterans signed for next season, beyond Smythe, have no guaranteed money due in 2023 and cap hits that would be greatly reduced or eliminated if they’re cut.

That group includes Keion Crossen ($2.9 million nonguaranteed salary for next season, $3.2 million cap hit), Alec Ingold ($2.7 million non guaranteed salary for 2023, $3.7 million cap hit) and Cethan Carter ($2.3 million salary non-guaranteed in 2023, $2.6 million cap hit).

Carter is most at risk of that group; he and Crossen would be owed nothing and have no dead money cap hits in 2023 if they’re cut.

Ingold has been an asset and figures to return.

▪ The Dolphins likely will need to be cost-conscious at inside linebacker, which could mean another year for Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley (two impending free agents), with the team hoping that Channing Tindall will assume a larger role in his second season.

Baker would seem more likely to return than not, but keep in mind that that none of his $8.4 million salary next season is guaranteed.

His $12.5 million cap number in 2023 shrinks to $8.7 million if he’s traded before June 1, and drops to $3.7 million if he’s traded after June 1.

Baker restructured his contract (lowering his 2022 cap hit by $2.5 million) to help the Dolphins facilitate the Chubb trade from a cap perspective.

▪ Kicker Jason Sanders, whose performance has diminished, likely will have competition next summer, but keep in mind that $2.5 million of his $3.4 million salary for 2023 is guaranteed.

He has a $3.8 million cap hit for 2023, and if he’s cut, the cap hit would be $3.7 million if cut before June 1, or $2.9 million if cut after June 1.

So the Dolphins could take Sanders and another kicker to camp and make a decision in late August.

▪ The Dolphins have a $1 million in dead money on their 2023 cap, including $600,000 for Chase Edmonds and $196,000 for Solomon Kindley.