SLO County voters get first chance to weigh in on Biden-Trump rematch. They aren’t excited

For the first time in four years, San Luis Obispo County voters weighed in on who they want to be the next president of the United States — and if the Election Night returns from Tuesday’s primary are any indication, they aren’t enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch.

Both parties saw about a third fewer votes cast for president in SLO County than in 2020.

According to initial Election Night results from the San Luis Obispo County Clerk-Recorder’s Office, 49,299 votes have so far been tallied in this year’s election, a roughly 27.9% voter turnout. That compares to 72,390 in 2020, or a 41% turnout through Election Night.

This year’s totals will go up in the coming weeks as the elections office processes the remaining mail-in ballots that were postmarked Election Day and earlier.

So who did San Luis Obispo County voters like most for president in 2024?

In terms of gross numbers, President Joe Biden had the clearest local support base, garnering 20,309 local votes by the end of the night’s count. That was 94% of the 21,615 votes for president by registered Democrats as of early Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile on the more competitive Republican ticket, former President Donald Trump totaled 14,189 votes by night’s end — or roughly 75.1% of the 18,896 Republican ballots for president counted so far.

Nikki Haley — who dropped out of the race after Tuesday night’s early results — followed behind with 21.5%, while Ron DeSantis brought in 1.6% and Chris Christie had 1%.

Lukewarm support for Trump in election results shows GOP splintering

The numbers were a stark drop from the March 2020 primary, where Biden and Trump’s roles were reversed, with Biden the challenger and Trump the sitting president.

At the end of Election Night in 2020, Trump had easily netted the majority of Republican votes, with 26,540. That made up 93.3% of the 28,460 Republican votes counted.

His total of 14,189 this year is a 46% decline from the support Trump received on Election Night 2020.

Trump secured 11,570 mail-in votes to go with 2,619 votes cast in person at polling places.

On Election Night 2020, he received 20,708 vote-by-mail ballots to go with 5,832 cast at polling places.

Hypothetically, even if every single Republican voter in SLO County who cast a ballot had picked Trump this year, the former president’s total still would be down 28% from last time.

Overall, the Republican vote total on Election night was down 33% from 2020.

In the 2020 primary, Trump would ultimately go on to win 36,077 San Luis Obispo County votes once all ballots were counted.

Lukewarm support for Trump shows a splintering in the Republican Party, according to Michael Erin Woody, a civil engineer who ran as a Republican for Congress in 2018.

“You have about a quarter of Republican voters that are questioning their support of Donald Trump and saying we don’t think he really represents us that well,” Woody said.

Right now, the Republican Party doesn’t allow their supporters to disagree with their platform, Woody said.

“They need to stop being so regimented in their views of the world,” he said. “You can’t beat up your voters and say you’re not a real Republican and then cozy up to them.”

Cal Poly political science professor Michael Latner agreed that Trump has a tough road ahead on the campaign trail.

“A 75% win is not great for a former president,” Latner said.

Now, it’s up to Biden and Trump to fight for Haley’s supporters, he said.

Still, Latner said he’s “not convinced that Trump enthusiasm is waning among his base.”

Trump’s supporters will likely remain loyal to him, Latner said. The former president’s real challenge is enticing independent and moderate voters to back him in November.

“The independents that really will be deciding the election — they’re going to make all the difference in the world,” Latner said. “If they’re too put off by Trump abusing his executive power in office, that’s going to be a big challenge to overcome.”

Biden will need swing voters to win November election, Cal Poly professor says

The lack of voter enthusiasm for a Trump-Biden rematch could also be seen on the Democratic side.

By the end of Election Night, a total of 21,615 Democratic votes had been tallied for president, compared to 32,733 in 2024. That’s a drop of 34%, mirroring the decline on the Republican side.

Biden did receive substantially more support this year as an unchallenged sitting president.

In 2020, SLO County Democrats actually leaned to Bernie Sanders, who secured 9,692 votes, or 29.6%, by the end of Election Night. That was well above Biden’s Election Night return of 7,678 votes, or 23.5%.

Once all votes were counted several weeks later, Sanders ultimately received 17,470 local votes or 32%, according to official 2020 primary election results, while Biden finished at 14,760 votes or 27.1% after all ballots were counted.

The Democratic ticket was substantially more divided that year, with other challengers like Elizabeth Warren, Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg bringing in several thousand votes a piece themselves.

On Election Night, Warren secured 4,740 votes, or 14.5%, Bloomberg had 4,028 or 12.3% and Buttigieg had 2,943 or just under 9%. Those numbers would go up as all ballots were tallied.

According to Latner, Biden faced “no actual organized opposition” from a Democratic candidate in this year’s primary — which is why he was able to garner so much support.

In 2020, however, Sanders presented an alternative to Biden for progressive voters, Latner said.

“Bernie has a confidence and integrity about him in that his message has not changed for many decades,” Latner said. “I think it would be hard to beat his performance.”

Latner said the November election again will be decided by swing voters, and Biden will need to engage with more moderate, blue collar voters.

“Part of the challenge for the Biden campaign is to demonstrate that the administration has been good for working-class voters,” Latner said.

Both Biden and Trump will need to fight for what he calls the “F--- the system voters,” who are less concerned with policy and more concerned with changing the way the country is run.

“There’s a chunk of the electorate that’s certainly up for grabs,” Latner said. “That’s going to be a real battle.”