Originally published by Ian Bremmer on LinkedIn: Signal: The Spring Cynicism Edition

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Your Friday author has always been cynical about cynicism, the tool that lazy people use to appear sophisticated. But it’s hard not to smirk at the world’s five big votes scheduled for the spring. See for yourself.

Italy — On March 4, Italians head to the polls for parliamentary elections unlikely to produce a result that pleases most of those who vote. No party will win a majority, beginning a prolonged process of coalition bargaining in a country where many MPs switch parties after the votes are cast.

Maybe Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right Forza Italia will join the far-right Northern League and some smaller conservative parties to form a government. Berlusconi can’t serve as prime minister because he’s been convicted of tax fraud and of dyeing his hair with black shoe polish. Maybe the center-left Democratic Party will lead another unstable coalition, the fourth in seven years, with Forza Italia. Maybe, though not likely, the populist Five Star Movement (5SM) can form a government with the far right. Or maybe talks will collapse and Italy will need another round of elections. True connoisseurs of political cynicism will be closely watching the performance of the new “Free Flights to Italy” party.

Whatever the outcome, Italy’s large public debt and its frustration with other EU members who aren’t helping ease a still-large refugee burden will continue. The best that can be said: Economic growth continues to improve, and even the 5SM has stopped talking up a referendum on exiting the Eurozone.

Germany — Speaking of unhappy coalitions, we’ll learn the outcome on March 4 of the vote-by-mail balloting of 460,000-plus members of Germany’s SPD, who must choose whether their center-left party should join another government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel and the center-right CDU-CSU. Six months after elections in which both major parties took big losses from previous totals, it all comes down to an in-or-out vote for the SPD. This one, unlike similar votes in the past, is no sure thing, particularly with the party’s youth wing actively campaigning for “no.” If SPD voters reject the deal their leaders have cut with Merkel, Germany will have new elections, or Merkel will try to lead a minority government.

The choice is simple, if cynical: Join a Merkel-led government that many SPD leaders have pledged to oppose in exchange for leadership of the foreign and finance ministries or face new elections after the party’s worst drubbing since World War II. Merkel’s party won just 33% of the vote last September, but the SPD won a mere 20.5% — and its popularity has since fallen to 16%, now behind even the far-right Alternative for Deutschland. As in France, traditional parties of the center-right and center-left are struggling to cope with rising public demand for change.

True fans of hard-core electoral cynicism will ignore Italy and Germany to focus on upcoming votes in Venezuela, Egypt, and Russia.

Russia — Vladimir Putin isn’t much worried that he’ll lose his March 18 bid for re-election to Ksenia Sobchak. He’s more worried that he’ll miss his 70/70 target — 70% of the vote with 70% turnout — and that the kids won’t turn out to certify that their president remains cool.

That’s probably why the Russian government hatched a plan to get young voters to compete to win iPads and iPhones by sending in selfies taken at polling stations. (h/t to our friends at Bear Market Brief.) If there’s anything the youngsters like more than iStuff, it’s the selfies.

Other prizes we’d like to see offered:

• A chance to hold President Superman’s cape while he wrestles a slightly drugged bear.

• Two tickets to join the Kremlin watch party for the November US midterm elections. (Bring a date!)

• A chance to fire Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev on live TV.

Too cynical? I’m not even warmed up yet.

Egypt — On March 26, Egyptians will choose between voting to re-elect President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, voting for an opponent who isn’t really running to win, and staying home to watch TV. The January arrest of former army chief of staff and credible opponent Sami Anan made clear Egypt’s strongman will leave little to chance. Like Putin, Sisi is worried about low turnout, particularly since Egypt’s opposition will boycott the vote. No worries: Sisi’s government is unlikely to publish credible turnout information anyway.

Anan is far from the only rival pushed out of the race — a former prime minister, a human rights lawyer, and former president Anwar Sadat’s nephew have all been harassed off the ballot. But Anan’s uniform reminds us that Sisi worries less about civilian opposition than about losing his support base within the military. That may eventually happen, if Egypt’s economy and security situation don’t improve. But not in time for next month’s vote. In the meantime, 14 international and Egyptian rights groups accuse the US and EU of “largely unquestioning support for a government presiding over the country’s worst human rights crisis in decades.”

Venezuela — The salsa king of Venezuela, aka President Nicolas Maduro, has decided to stand for re-election on April 22. There are many reasons he’s going to win. His government has made no deal with the opposition, allowing Maduro to change election rules as he goes. There will be no objective international observers to certify Maduro didn’t cheat. And Maduro will cheat — by using the country’s courts to disqualify any legitimately popular opponent, by stuffing the ballot box, or both.

It’s no wonder then that the country’s four largest opposition parties announced this week they’ll boycott the whole show. Henri Falcon, a former Chavista turned controversial opposition figure, says he’s in the race. But though he enjoys a two-to-one lead over Maduro in current polls, there’s no way Maduro will let him win.

In the meantime, conditions inside Venezuela will get even worse. Declining oil production will undermine the value of the country’s only valuable export. Runaway inflation and shortages of basic goods will continue, even for those who have supported Maduro. Sanctions may hasten a default, particularly if the Chinese and Russians decide to stop throwing good money after bad.

That’s why the greatest threat to Maduro in coming months comes not from the still-fragmented opposition but from within the Chavista movement, those with real power to dance him offstage.

RIO’S ELECTION-YEAR EMERGENCY

This is not the first time Brazil’s federal government has ordered the army to take command of Rio de Janeiro’s police force. The city has seen drug gangs and paramilitary militias fight over territory for years. But Rio’s murder rate is up 26 percent since 2015, and during Carnival celebrations early this month, images of gangs surrounding and robbing tourists featured daily on national television. Announcing a state of emergency last week, President Michel Temer explained that drug gangs have “nearly taken over” the city.

This latest round of violence is unfolding during a presidential election year, and the government’s ability to contain the killing could have an impact on the race. Pacification of the city won’t do much to help Temer, the incumbent with a single-digit approval rating. He’s unlikely to run anyway. Depending on how the violence plays out, maybe it’ll boost former military man and law-and-order tough guy Jair Bolsonaro, the presidential candidate who once said “Cops who don’t kill anyone aren’t really cops.” So far, Bolsonaro has refused to support the army intervention. Stay tuned.

MALAYSIA’S CARTOONISH POLITICS

Fahmi Reza is just a little too talented for his own good. Or maybe he caught the political mood at the worst possible moment. Ahead of elections later this year, this Malaysian artist and activist was sentenced to jail time and a fine this week following charges that he inked a cartoon that featured Prime Minister Najib Razak in clown makeup. The image went viral during recent protests. Mr. Fahmi’s lawyer says a stay was granted that will keep his client out of jail pending appeal, but he must still pay a fine of RM30,000 (about $7,662). The official charge is posting an image online that is “obscene, indecent, false, menacing or offensive in character with intent to annoy, abuse, threaten or harass another person.”

INSIDE KOREA’S UNIFIED HOCKEY TEAM

A quick break from all the cynicism: Click here for my friend Alex Kliment’s interview with Caroline Park, a Canadian-born member of the unified Korean Olympic women’s hockey team, which made history during the Pyeongchang Games by including players from both South and North Korea. Here’s what it was like inside that interesting bubble.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Saudi Vegas — Last year, Saudi Arabia announced plans to build a Las Vegas-sized city near Riyadh that will host cultural, entertainment and sporting events in a country that has little history of any of these things. Next month, the kingdom will get its first public movie theaters after a 35-year ban. This week, the government announced plans to invest $64 billion over ten years to promote tourism and to give Saudis more opportunities to get out of the house. Imagine the controversies to come.

Rohingya and social media — In Myanmar, about 90 percent of people have a mobile phone, making Facebook an important source of news in that country. Unfortunately, fake news is as prevalent in Myanmar as in other countries, and some have planted false accusations against the Muslim-minority Rohingya population to support a campaign of murder, rape, and arson against the group by Myanmar’s Army, forcing hundreds of thousands of Rohingya across the border into Bangladesh. The UN says it’s the fastest mass expulsion of people since the genocide in Rwanda nearly a quarter century ago.

Billy Graham — In an age of anonymous vitriol and political bitterness, it is still possible, maybe essential, to honor the sincerity and integrity of those with whom we have profound, fundamental disagreements. Christian evangelist Billy Graham passed this week. Among other things, he was the most charismatic public speaker this author has seen. Graham was far from a perfect practitioner of all he preached, particularly on questions that combined sexuality and civil rights, but he was also that rare leader, spiritual or political, who shunned personal profit and treated others with care.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Justin Trudeau’s Trip to India — You have to see the photos to understand why we’re averting our eyes. And there are plenty of them.

Wilbur Ross — Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross won the award for “Least Romantic Thing Ever Said” this week. Referring to the viability of commercial space operations, he said “I think a lot depends upon how successful we are in turning the moon into a kind of gas station for outer space.” Wilbur just fatally compromised his (admittedly limited) future as Hollywood’s next romantic leading man.

Another Kazakh alphabet — About four months ago, we let you know we were ignoring Kazakhstan’s new written alphabet, because we expected further changes. Our prediction was deadly accurate. Earlier this month, Kazakhstan’s government announced that it’s changing the alphabet again,this time because over-used apostrophes just completely freaked people out. The apostrophes have now been replaced by accents. (That’ll solve it.) There are other changes, but don’t try to memorize them. They’ll probably change it again soon.

HARD NUMBERS

6: At its current pace, Italy’s economy still needs six years to reach the level of GDP last seen before the financial crisis.

7: ”If you’d bought a million dollars’ worth of [Venezuelan] bolivars fifteen years ago, [they] would now be worth just seven dollars,” according toGirish Gupta of Reuters. “Imagine what that means for the money in people’s pockets.”

80: After Brexit, 80% of NATO’s defence spending will come from non-EU members. Another opportunity for Trump to question Europe’s commitment to common defense?

800: To avoid any appearance of a conflict of interest, heavy metal fan (and Indonesia’s President) Joko Widodo has reportedly paid 11m rupiah ($800) for a signed, limited-edition vinyl box set of Metallica’s Master of Puppets he was given by Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen.

22.5: Why must you always look both ways when crossing a street in the Netherlands? Because the country is home to 18 million people and 22.5 million bicycles.

WORDS OF WISDOM

— Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban offers a ray of sunshine in his annual State of the Nation Address.

Self-correction interlude: Last week, I referred to a “second round” of Mexico’s presidential election. As a number of loyal readers reminded me, Mexico’s vote will have just one round. I regret my mistake.

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Give a friend the Signal here.

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