A Shortcut Through the Long Campaign

From the Stirewalt on Politics on The Dispatch

Two hundred and forty-one days is a long time to do anything. Even something you like.

We will start and finish an entire Major League Baseball season in less time than it takes to contest the 2024 general election campaign for president, and we have to do it with just two terrible teams.

More than 2 million new Americans—a number larger than the population of New Mexico—will be born in the time that it takes to get from Super Tuesday and Election Day, November 5.

That is a very long time for the ordinary living of life, but for the churn-and-burn cycle of politics in the nanosecond news cycle, it is an eternity.

I don’t write that just to depress you, though I understand that it would. I point out the extraordinarily long campaign for the general election as a caution.

First, let it be a caution against political predestination. Less than a month ago, President Joe Biden was facing a growing chorus of murmurs from his own party about his fitness to run the race. Today, he is basking in the love of his fellow Democrats after a State of the Union address in which he trolled Republicans for a solid 70 minutes.

Both Biden and former President Donald Trump will be weak nominees when they emerge from their conventions this summer. And while unlikely, there is a greater chance than ever in the modern era that one or both of them won’t emerge as their party’s standard bearer at all.

But even if, like Peggy Lee, we are left to sing “Is that all there is?” there is much still to be determined. There are events outside the campaigns (the economy and national security most of all) and decisions inside of them (debates, running mates, strategies etc.) at which we can guess, but still don’t know. And neither do the candidates and their campaigns, really.

But the second, and more important, caution is against despair.

I am arguing against interest here as a political analyst, but I would encourage Americans to moderate their political news intake for an election so long and predictably tedious and vapid.

It wouldn’t be good to tune out altogether, but we should at least be able to enjoy the silver lining of the first general election rematch since 1956. If the parties can’t be bothered to be interesting, we shouldn’t feel so obliged to give them our rapt attention. Two of the most famous people in the world are going to spend eight months fighting over the same narrow patch of earth. We can let them rage without being trampled underfoot.

There will be much of interest to see, especially as it relates to the future beyond November 5. And, at the risk of opening myself to a mental health intervention, I am looking forward to covering it.

But if the major parties are repeating themselves, we don’t have to get so wrapped up in their narratives. Many Americans will know fear and anxiety because of this election. Some of that may be unavoidable. But it isn’t necessary to keep going on the same head trips for 34 weeks.

With all of that in mind, please consider the following from my friend and colleague, Nate Moore, on what we know now as we get ready to ride this log flume to November:

In a primary that has been all but over for months, the political press is forced to lunge at scraps of electoral data to gain insight about the November general. So Super Tuesday’s hearty serving of primaries was a welcome meal for pundits starved of hot takes. Fun though they may be, beware of these sweeping conclusions.

Joe Biden’s 51-40 loss—yes, that’s total votes, not percentages—in the American Samoa caucus does not portend disaster eight months from now. Nor does Donald Trump’s narrow loss in Vermont. Early spring primaries with an electorate of hyper-engaged partisans rarely mean much for November, especially if we look only at winners and losers.

A look under the hood and down the ballot, however, does allow for a few reasonable deductions—ones that will actually shape campaign strategies through the spring and summer. Here are a few.

1) Worries about Biden’s performance with Hispanic voters are legitimate. In the Texas primary, Biden earned just under 85 percent, a strong showing not far from the 88 percent Barack Obama received in 2012. But in overwhelmingly Hispanic counties across the Rio Grande Valley, Biden did terribly: 45 percent in Starr County, 55 percent in Willacy, 56 percent in Jim Hogg, 40 percent in Zapata. In Starr, Rep. Henry Cuellar won four times as many votes in his congressional primary as Biden did in the presidential. Recent high-quality polling data backs up these expected shifts. This is not to say Latinos are suddenly overwhelmingly Republican. But the realignment we saw four years ago appears poised to continue—often along socioeconomic and geographic lines.

2) Republican Steve Garvey’s second-place finish in the California Senate primary is great news for Senate Democrats. Adam Schiff is now all but guaranteed to become the next senator from the Golden State—and most importantly he dodges a divisive and expensive general election matchup with progressive Katie Porter. Tens and tens of millions would have been burned in this Dem vs. Dem matchup, diverting critical resources away from races that actually matter. California’s Democratic donors can now look beyond state lines and toward places like Ohio and Montana when writing their checks. Paradoxically, Steve Daines and the NRSC would have been better off nationally if they were “locked out” of the general election as they were in 2018, rather than having to support Garvey.

3) Senate Republicans largely improved on candidate quality this time around (with a notable Lake-sized exception). The same cannot be said of 2024’s most important gubernatorial election. Mark Robinson’s nomination in North Carolina has already prompted an avalanche of oppo research. If this is what’s coming out in March, imagine the October surprises. Time will tell, but Robinson might actually approach Doug Mastriano levels of yikes. His nomination puts the GOP at a disadvantage in the race against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, but it could also have strange effects up and down the ballot in a crucial battleground.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 38.4%
Average disapproval: 58.0%
Net score: -19.6 points

Change from one week ago: ↓ 1.0 points

Change from one month ago: ↓ 2.8 points

[Average includes: New York Times/Siena: 38% approve-59% disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos: 37% approve-58%; Quinnipiac: 40% approve-57% disapprove; Gallup: 38% approve-59% disapprove; Monmouth: 39% approve-57% disapprove]

Polling Roulette

[Monmouth poll of U.S. adults, February 2024]

TIME OUT: ‘RADIO SQUIRRELS’

The Atlantic: “Nestled within the Point Reyes National Seashore, north of San Francisco, KPH Maritime Radio is the last operational Morse-code radio station in North America. … Its members call themselves the ‘radio squirrels.’ Every Saturday, they beep out maritime news and weather reports, and receive any stray messages. Much of their communication is with the SS Jeremiah O’Brien, a World War II–era ship permanently parked at a San Francisco pier. … To send a message, they tapped each Morse-code letter into a gadget called a ‘bug,’ generating a loud, staticky noise that reverberated throughout the whole building. ‘It’s almost like jazz.’ … The squirrels do their own repairs, and scrounge eBay for replacement parts on the newer units. To honor the station’s past, the volunteers start each Saturday morning with ‘services’ for ‘The Church of the Continuous Wave,’ in which they eat breakfast off vintage plates branded with the Radio Corporation of America’s old logo.”

GALLEGO, LAKE COURT MODERATES AFTER SINEMA EXIT

Politico: “Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s retirement announcement Tuesday set off a new scramble for her base of independent voters in Arizona’s hotly contested Senate race. … [Rep. Ruben Gallego] already had been moving in that direction. He quietly ended his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus at the end of last year, according to a person familiar with his decision who was granted anonymity to speak freely. [Kari Lake] has also been drifting toward the center, making overtures to the moderate wing of the Arizona Republican Party that she viciously attacked during her 2022 governor campaign. … Both candidates, however, face clear hurdles in selling those moderate bona fides to an unabashedly swing state — in a presidential year no less, where Arizona will be awash with politicking.”

Cruz readies to take on Allred: Washington Post: “Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and his allies are mobilizing to prevent a repeat of his near-miss reelection race in 2018 that shook up politics in traditionally red Texas. The Club for Growth, an influential conservative group, told The Washington Post on Wednesday it will spend at least $10 million to defend Cruz against the newly minted Democratic nominee, Colin Allred. … Allred is also taking lessons from 2018. His supporters see him as a more disciplined campaigner who has already shown in the primary he can take the fight to Cruz. … Allred has already outraised Cruz, and his campaign had almost $2 million more cash on hand than Cruz’s did as of mid-February. … Allred’s supporters say he is well-positioned to draw a contrast with Cruz on the [border] while also maintaining some distance from national Democrats.”

Schiff, Garvey advance to general; Porter plays sore loser: Los Angeles Times: “Concluding California’s most competitive U.S. Senate primary in a generation, Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank and retired Dodgers All-Star Steve Garvey will square off in November to represent the Golden State in Washington. … The Associated Press called the race for Schiff less than half an hour after polls closed and at about 9 p.m. for Garvey. The other top Democratic challengers, Reps. Katie Porter of Irvine and Barbara Lee of Oakland, were running in third and fourth place, respectively. … In an effort to box Porter out, Schiff and his allies staged what amounted to a free advertising campaign for Garvey.”

Murphy wins crucial Bergen County convention: New Jersey Globe: “First Lady Tammy Murphy defeated Rep. Andy Kim at this evening’s Bergen County Democratic convention in Paramus, a critically important result that marks Murphy’s first proper convention win in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. … The final margin is something both candidates can spin as a victory: Murphy won the county party endorsement, a big deal in New Jersey’s party-dominated political system, but Kim still got a significant percentage of the vote despite the many advantages his opponent possessed. Clearly, though, Murphy is the undisputed winner tonight. … Since Bergen County is home to around one-tenth of the state’s Democratic primary electorate, the party endorsement there carries quite a bit of weight in a statewide primary.”

BIDEN ALLIES PLAN EARLY $700+ MILLION AD BLITZ

Politico: “Joe Biden and his allies intend to bury Donald Trump in campaign cash, hoping that the president’s financial advantage will be the equalizer in a race that’s becoming more of an uphill climb for the president. … An estimated $2.7 billion is expected to be spent just on presidential campaign advertising this cycle. … The Biden campaign said that groups allied with it had committed to spending more than $700 million to help defeat Trump. … And with the president’s team eager to turn 2024 into a choice election for voters, plans are in place for the campaign itself to ramp up contrast ad-spending this spring. A person familiar with Biden’s campaign strategy but not authorized to speak about it publicly said it will come earlier than when then-President Barack Obama’s allies began turning up the heat on Republican rival Mitt Romney in 2012.”’

BRIEFLY

Rep. Barry Moore beats Rep. Jerry Carl in GOP member vs. member Alabama primary—Politico

J.R. Majewski suspends campaign for Ohio battleground House district—Toledo Blade

San Francisco swings moderate with police, school reforms—San Francisco Chronicle

WITHIN EARSHOT: TRIBUNES OF THE PEOPLE 

“I’m in New York for most of my life. You run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein. I knew Roger Ailes. I knew – O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”—Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. explains how he twice found himself on Jeffrey Epstein’s plane.   

And

“Dina’s on the board of Exxon.”—Dave McCormick, the presumptive GOP Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, tries to relate to a group of veterans worried about gas prices during a campaign event in Palmerton. His wife, Dina Powell McCormick, serves on ExxonMobil’s board of directors. 

MAILBAG

“Who do you see running for president in future cycles, depending on what happens this year?”—Christopher DeCarlo, East Norwich, New York

Mr. DeCarlo,

As William Carlos Williams might have said, so much depends upon a red wave election, glazed with MAGA glitter, beside the white working class.

I kid, but it’s just too hard to say anything sensible about individuals who might be in the hunt not just after this year’s election but when it really counts, after the 2026 midterms.

Directionally, we know a couple of things: 1) We are on the cusp of a generational revolution, particularly on the Democratic side and 2) politicians are lagging, not leading indicators. They respond to incentives far more than they create actual change.

And it’s not just about the outcomes of the next two elections, but how those things come to pass. What we can all hope, though, is that the electorate will be in the mood for competency and character in our leaders.

Poetically,

C

“There’s one more choice as an alternative to the Trump or Biden train wreck: Vote for Haley anyway.  I’m certainly not staying at home due to down-ticket choices, and will be writing in Haley, as I did in 2020.  I can then go to sleep at night without personal guilt. Looking forward to your NewsNation show.”—Jim Stryker, Buffalo Grove, Illinois

Mr. Stryker,

I say this not just because you are a resident of Illinois: People should vote for whomever the heck they want to.

There is nothing wrong with choosing the lesser of two evils in your own mind. Sometimes, it is even virtuous if the perceived evil on one side is sufficient, the lesser evil is mild.

But there’s also nothing wrong with voting your conscience. Anybody who tells you that you owe them their vote not only misunderstands the relationship, but is a pretty lousy politician.

All best,

C

“Your noting Alana Mounce’s addition to the Biden campaign is spot on. I’d add that Yvanna Cancela has also joined Team Biden. Culinary/union connections. She’s also a very important addition especially for Southern Nevada.”—Cheryl Blomstrom, Carson City, Nevada

Ms. Blomstrom,

Good point! Cancela, former state senator and former chief of staff to Nevada’s previous Democratic governor, is indeed a good addition.

Nevada’s Democratic Party sets an excellent example for the blue team in other states. In a place where Democrats have seemed to be on the ropes for decades, they have been maestros of organization and turnout.

Like the old Republican Party in Wisconsin before it fell on hard times, the Nevada Democratic Party has worked harder and more effectively to prevail in a highly competitive space.

All best,

C

“Since the fall debates look to be off the table, I would assume this would eliminate the VP debates also.  Given most VP candidates are not known very well nationally, would this not be a big hit to a potential GOP VP who wants to get at least some exposure that comes with the pick?  I know they can go on all the talk shows, but in this case, that will require huge manure shovels to deal with January 6 and stolen election questions constantly, while trying to persuade independents and swing voters to give Trump one more chance.”—Larry Hubbard, Franklin, Tennessee

Mr. Hubbard,

I am not sure yet where we will land on debates. It is certainly possible, maybe even slightly probable, that there will be no debates.

But we are only at the beginning of the debate about debates. It is still possible that the two major party nominees will assent to the slate proposed by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Donald Trump has already said he would go, despite his party’s previous withdrawal. President Joe Biden is so far being coy, but the pressure for him to participate will be enormous. The incumbent is really in a bind on this one.

And with the possibility of having third-party candidates on the stage, for the first time in a generation, Biden risks the possibility of a debate taking place with him out of the conversation entirely.

Whether he does all three or not, I don’t know. But I think it will be next to impossible for Biden to avoid it altogether, as long as Trump is willing to submit to commission rules.

All best,

C

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let me know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the writerly Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: ‘DON’T BLAME ME, VOTED FOR KODOS’

This week’s winner has it all: Pithy, written in the form of an actual cutline, and absurd comedy. Mwah!

“Nikki Haley, seen here with what she called a ‘delicious child’”—Daniel Summers, Knoxville, Tennessee

Winner, Mudslingers Division: 

“We’ll see who’s smiling after I fill this diaper.”—Michael Smith, Georgetown, Kentucky

Winner, Target Demographic Division: 

“Baby resents participation in political cliche.”—Linda McKee, Dubois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Waka Waka Division:

“So they’re saying I can’t carry Virginia. OK, here’s Virginia.”—Bill Ward, St. Augustine Beach, Florida

Winner, ‘Rigged!’ Division: 

“Haley attempts to persuade baby to cast ballot, commits voter fraud.”—Will Bates, St. Louis, Missouri

Winner, Moranis Division: 

“Little Donnie and I would like to announce that Operation Baby-Ray has been a complete success.”—Jack Funke, Poplar Bluff, Missouri

PLEASE HANG UP AND DIAL AGAIN

Jalopnik: “Living near an airport can be everything from dangerous to downright disruptive. People who usually live near these airports and their busy areas of traffic often try to get things at the airport changed, but it’s usually unsuccessful. One household in Washington D.C., though, took things to a whole new level by issuing over 7,000 complaints … in a single year. … Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington D.C. received 8,760 noise complaints in 2015. A whopping 78 percent of those complaints (6,852) were made from just two individuals in a single household in the Foxhall neighborhood of D.C. The report details why these people were so determined to be heard: ‘The residents of that particular house called Reagan National to express irritation about aircraft noise an average of almost 19 times per day during 2015.’”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.

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