Seoul Tragedy Pressures President Yoon to Show He Can Lead

Jon Herskovitz and Shamim Adam
·4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s handling of a deadly crowd surge that killed more than 150 people will give him a chance to prove to critics he can lead, or hand his opponents more fodder to paint his administration as incompetent.

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Yoon convened emergency meetings just hours after the crush occurred late Saturday night in the popular nightlife district of Itaewon, where tens of thousands were celebrating Halloween. He quickly pledged medical and financial support to victims and their families, and vowed there would be thorough investigations and reviews of safety measures to prevent similar tragedies.

He visited the site on Sunday morning and gave a televised speech announcing a mourning period, saying he is struggling to cope with grief because it was his responsibility as president to keep people safe. Later that afternoon, he designated Itaewon a special disaster zone, giving authorities access to emergency relief and special administrative and financial support to carry out their work and render aid to victims.

“Scrutiny over the administration’s handling of the incident is heightened” and Yoon’s party would want him to handle the incident with swiftness and appropriate measures, said Soo Kim, a policy analyst with the Rand Corp. who previously worked at the Central Intelligence Agency. “A benign or trivial mistake can be blown out of proportion or decontextualized to portray the current administration as incompetent.”

South Korea Cancels Concerts, Government Briefings After Tragedy

Major newspaper editorials on Monday expressed condolences to the victims and their families, with many saying authorities should have been better prepared. One of the country’s biggest dailies, the Chosun Ilbo, said local officials should have known the crowd would have been large but the police on the scene were more focused on crime prevention than crowd safety.

Yoon, a conservative and a former prosecutor, won the presidential race by the slimmest margin in the country’s history, and had a support rate of 30% in the latest weekly poll from Gallup Korea. That’s a sharp fall from 51% when he took office in May, with respondents citing troubles with diplomacy and a lack of experience as reasons for disapproval.

He has found his legislative priorities blocked in a parliament where the opposition holds a majority large enough to vote down his initiatives and override any veto, and added to his difficulties through a series of gaffes during trips abroad.

The Itaewon tragedy is the worst to take place in South Korea since the sinking of the Sewol Ferry in 2014 killed 304 people, leading to criticism against the government at the time for its response to the emergency. Then-Prime Minister Chung Hong-won resigned over authorities’ failure to properly handle the maritime disaster, while then-President Park Geun-hye saw her approval rating dip in the months that followed.

“Like in the past, this tragic incident could become a defining test of a Korean president’s leadership and competence, depending on how he handles the situation and the results of the investigation into the cause of the stampede,” said Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Seoul. “If history is a guide for national tragedies, either Yoon’s critics will blame him and seek his ouster or Yoon becomes a hero.”

Conflict in the country’s bitter partisan politics has intensified in recent weeks as prosecutors launched investigations against prominent members of the progressive bloc -- which include the current party leader and a former defense minister. Before becoming leader, Yoon made a name for himself as a prosecutor who took on politicians.

Yoon can ill afford any slip in support as he tries to push through plans to spur economic growth driven by the private sector and mitigate the effects of the won trading at its lowest levels in 13 years.

The president has received notes of support from key allies including the US. Yoon has worked hard to restore ties with Japan, and Tokyo was among the first country’s to send its condolences over the deadly incident, which killed at least 26 foreigners.

“The opposition will have their eyes wide open to spot any misstep that could be used politically, and that puts pressure on the Yoon government to handle this right,” said Rhee Jong-hoon, a local political commentator who’s authored several books on domestic politics. “Yoon’s opponents also carry the risk of a backlash if they play the wrong cards. So for now, both sides are likely to play it close to the chest.”

--With assistance from Sam Kim, Emily Yamamoto and Shinhye Kang.

(Updates with newspaper editorials.)

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