Senegal’s top court rules election must happen on March 24

Semafor Signals

Insights from Reuters, The Africa Report, and Le Monde

The News

Senegal’s top court ruled on Monday that the country’s presidential election must be held on March 24.

The ruling dismissed legal attempts by opposition politician Karim Wade, who claimed that there was insufficient time to campaign, to push back the election. The country fell into a constitutional crisis after current President Macky Sall — who is ineligible for a third term — canceled the planned Feb. 25 elections over an alleged dispute of the candidates’ list.

Lawmakers pushed for a December election, but Sall ultimately settled on the March 24 date last week after talks with political, religious, and civic leaders.

The fiasco has tarnished Senegal’s reputation as one of Africa’s most stable democracies, worrying observers that the country could become the latest West African nation to experience a coup. But there are some positive signs: Popular opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and his chosen candidate for this year’s election, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, were released from prison Thursday after Sall granted an amnesty order.

SIGNALS

Sall’s coalition loses support over election fiasco

Many Sall supporters v who initially voted for him have lost faith in his Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition and Sall’s replacement candidate, Amadou Ba. Though Sall claimed he postponed the election to review decisions about certain candidates who were disqualified from the ticket, many voters and observers suspect the outgoing president was unhappy about Ba, and wanted time to vet a more suitable candidate, Reuters reported. ​​“These are domestic issues that Senegal should have grown out of,” one voter said. The postponement has tarnished the BBY’s reputation among voters: Only 60% of people who voted for Sall in 2019 plan to vote for Ba in this election, according to one statistician.

Presidential candidates focus on hydrocarbons

Political instability could threaten Senegal’s ambitions of becoming Africa’s next economic powerhouse following the discovery of vast offshore oil and gas fields. The International Monetary Fund has warned that Dakar must “improve the business environment, access to finance, and the development of infrastructure” in order to increase both the tax pool and attract more foreign investment to fund the hydrocarbon sector, according to The Africa Report. At the core of the issue is what role France, a former colonial power in Senegal, would play in the nation’s development as anti-French sentiment grips the country. Opposition candidate Faye said he would renegotiate current contracts with foreign entities, and grant offshore blocks that have not yet been allocated to Senegal’s state oil company, Bloomberg reported.

Political turmoil takes toll on tourism

Political uncertainty — including the violent protests after Sall’s decision to postpone the election — is impacting tourism in Senegal, France’s Le Monde reported. Several hotel managers interviewed by the paper said that they have seen an increase in canceled bookings since February, with occupancy rates reaching COVID-era levels of about 15%. “Some bosses will close shop” if more chaos ensues from the upcoming election, the president of the Association of Hotel and Restaurant Professionals warned. Still, compared to its neighbors, Senegal has “not yet fallen into the red zone” of political upheaval, the leader of the French Council Investors in Africa said, adding that he remains optimistic that the country will remain a strong hub for European businesses and tourists.