The senators who could fill Trump’s national security cabinet

The Scoop

Donald Trump is eyeing three Republican senators — Bill Hagerty, Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio — for key national security posts if he wins the White House in November, people close to the Trump campaign told Semafor.

The conservative lawmakers are all prominent hawks on China and Iran and supporters of increased U.S. spending on defense and border security. Trump sees the politicians as potentially partnering with cabinet members and advisors from his first term to create a more unified national security team from day one, these people said.

Among the first-term confidantes Trump is expected to consider for top jobs: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; John Ratcliffe, a one-time congressman who served as Director of National Intelligence; former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien; and Trump’s ambassador to Germany, Ric Grenell. Trump also consults with advisors from his ideologically aligned think tank, the America First Policy Institute, such as retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg and former Trump National Security Council staffer, Fred Fleitz.

“I think you’ll see a much much more cohesive and strategic foreign policy team” if Trump wins in November, a person briefed on the candidate’s plans told Semafor.

None of the three senators were initially major Trump boosters, and Marco Rubio ran against him in 2016. But these politicians largely supported Trump’s major foreign policy and domestic security initiatives while he was in office. These included his confrontational approaches towards China and Iran and his diplomatic push to build a Middle East security bloc through alliances between Israel and key Arab states.

In recent months, Senators Hagerty, Cotton and Rubio have also backed Trump’s public skepticism towards funding Ukraine. Aid for the country is emerging as among the most divisive foreign policy issues in the 2024 campaign. And European nations and NATO members are increasingly concerned that Trump could completely pull support for Kiev.

Rubio earlier this month said both Russia and Ukraine needed to accept that neither side is going to win the war. “So then the question becomes if in fact, there’s going to be a negotiated settlement, who’s going to have the leverage here?” he told Fox news.

Hagerty served as Trump’s ambassador to Japan before leaving to campaign for Tennessee’s open senate seat, which he won in 2020. While in Tokyo, the former financier impressed the president with his ability to manage trade and security issues with the Japanese, particularly in relation to China, according to former Trump officials. “He’s very well respected in Asia,” one said of Hagerty. “So, he’s somebody that I would definitely have on my radar.”

Funding for the Pentagon, and its restructuring, is also expected to be a particular focus for Trump if he wins a second term. Cotton, an Iraq war veteran and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is expected to be a candidate for secretary of defense, along with Pompeo. Rubio, who serves as vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, could be a fit to head the CIA.

Jay’s view

Donald Trump’s entrance onto the global stage after the 2016 election was marred by an inexperienced White House and deep divisions within his national security team. The Republican candidate’s ability to draw from a more seasoned bench could smooth his transition back into power, if it’s stability he really seeks.

Much of Trump’s first term was undermined by tumult within his cabinet. His first national security advisor, Michael Flynn, resigned after only three weeks when it was revealed he lied to FBI investigators looking into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Trump fired his first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, by social media 2018 only a year into his tenure.

Among the biggest concerns about a Trump re-election is that he’d be solely surrounded by loyalists. During his first term, a range of seasoned military men and business executives, including retired generals James Mattis and John Kelly, and Tillerson, a former ExxonMobil CEO, attempted to challenge the president on key national security issues, according to memoirs by Trump administration veterans. But most of these officials were either fired or resigned due to their differences with Trump; even more officials left his administration in its final weeks following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

A wild card in a second Trump term would be the possible role of his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Kushner oversaw many of the Trump administration’s key Middle East portfolios, including the diplomacy that led to peace agreements being signed between Israel and leading Arab states. He said last month that he won’t return to government and is focusing on his businesses. But that could change if Trump asks him to serve again.

The entrance of experienced Republicans like Hagerty, Cotton and Rubio into a second Trump term could assuage some fears about talent recruitment. But it would remain to be seen if these men could navigate the president’s politics and management style better than their predecessors.

Room for Disagreement

Trump raised alarm bells last year when he called into a political rally hosted by Michael Flynn and told the crowd: “We’re going to bring you back.” It’s unclear if Trump was suggesting he’d assign the retired general to another senior position after his 2017 debacle. But it again raised questions about whether Trump would ultimately staff his administration with loyalists and those promoting his most destabilizing foreign policy positions, such as potentially cutting funding to NATO or not defending Taiwan in a war with China.

Axios published in December a list of potential cabinet members that also cited Senator Cotton as a possible defense secretary. But it also indicated some of the most strident members of Trump’s MAGA political movement could get cabinet posts with serious national security implications. These included Kash Patel, who served in Trump’s Pentagon, as a potential CIA director; the radio host Steve Bannon as White House chief of staff; and former White House staffer Stephen Miller as Attorney General.

“If Trump won in 2024, he’d turn to loyalists who share his zeal to punish critics, purge non-believers, and take controversial legal and military action,” Axios quoted sources as telling the publication.

Notable

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly challenged in January Trump’s claim that he could end the war in Ukraine “in one day” if he’s re-elected.