Seahawks at Falcons: Can Atlanta’s offense soar over the Legion of Boom?
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (10-5-1) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 ET on Fox
SEAHAWKS AT A GLANCE
Key player: Earl Thomas. Unfortunately, Thomas, Seattle’s all-world safety, has been sidelined with a broken leg since early December, so the impact he’ll have on this game will be by his absence. Richard Sherman and the remainder of the Legion of Boom will need to step up against a Falcons aerial attack that’s precise in short, medium, and long doses. Seattle ranked fifth in fewest yards surrendered this season, but that was with Thomas in the lineup most of the year. Now? Trouble ahead.
Why they’ll win: Seattle has to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan’s hands, either by sustained offensive drives or by grabbing it out of the air. Ryan is susceptible to interception streaks; he’s only one year removed from a season in which every trip to the red zone was a possible gift to the defense. Russell Wilson is healthy, the running game is stout, and Doug Baldwin always has the ability to catch a ball with any and all body parts.
Why they’ll lose: Because the best days of the Seattle defense were three years ago, and Atlanta can roll out weaponry like a blackjack dealer tossing cards. Because Thomas Rawls may have beaten Marshawn Lynch’s playoff rushing record last week, but Rawls is no Lynch, and the Falcons aren’t the spotty Lions defense. Because Russell Wilson can scramble all he likes, but All-Pro linebacker Vic Beasley is a full-grown man and just waiting for Wilson to show up in his area code.
Keep in mind: Seattle is a different team on the road than at home. The Seahawks went 7-1, plus last week’s playoff win, in the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field, and 3-4-1 on the road. The team is also 0-8 as a road underdog in their last eight postseason games; they’re a 4.5-point dog against Atlanta.
FALCONS AT A GLANCE
Key player: Matt Ryan. The long-maligned Falcons quarterback had a legitimate MVP-caliber season, ranking second to Drew Brees in passing yards with 4,944; third in completion percentage with a nice 69.9 average; and second to Aaron Rodgers in touchdowns thrown with 38. He also managed to shed, at least for the moment, the label of serviceable-but-not-spectacular quarterback. This entire game—indeed, Atlanta’s entire season—will revolve around Ryan’s play. No pressure at all, Matty Ice.
Why they’ll win: Because the Falcons can beat you in the air, on the ground, underwater, in space, wherever you pick. Atlanta has a receiving corps that includes All-Galactic WR Julio Jones, who’s now completely healthy after some late-season injuries. Mohammed Sanu and surprise pickup Taylor Gabriel flesh out the vertical attack. Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman are the NFL equivalent of those hammerhead ships that pushed around Star Destroyers in “Rogue One” – banging again and again and again until they shove their way into open space. The Falcons averaged a league-best 33.8 points per game, besting the second-best team (New Orleans) by more than 4 points.
Why they’ll lose: Because even the Falcons’ vaunted offense won’t be able to outrun a complacent defense. All too often, Atlanta has let its opponents up off the mat, sometimes to no effect (Week 17 vs. the Saints) and sometimes to devastating effect (Ryan’s disastrous pick-two that cost Atlanta a sure victory against Kansas City). Atlanta let Seattle score early in their October matchup, and then couldn’t close the door with a lead late (yes, there was a controversial Richard Sherman-Julio Jones non-penalty you’ll hear plenty about on Saturday); the loss very nearly cost Atlanta a first-round bye.
Keep in mind: The Falcons have exactly one Super Bowl appearance in their history, and the last time they visited the playoffs, they fell five yards short in the NFC Championship against a less-talented San Francisco 49er team. There’s a perpetual, baked-in sense of historical fatalism about the Falcons, and if Atlanta gets behind in yet another playoff game, the mood of the Georgia Dome will sour in a hurry.
OUTLOOK
This is one of those everything-has-to-go-right games for the Seahawks. The offense has to execute without error, and the defense has to play so far above its head it’ll be bouncing against the roof of the Georgia Dome. The Falcons, meanwhile, only need to keep slinging offensive series against the wall and can eventually expect to score. The ease with which Atlanta can hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard is dispiriting even to the best teams, and the Georgia Dome volume—really, no kidding—gives Atlanta a true home-team advantage. It’s tough to see Seattle remaining competitive for 60 minutes. Atlanta moves on.
Podcast: Your complete NFL playoff preview
Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud
____
Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT NATION, on sale now at Amazon or wherever books are sold. Contact him at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter or on Facebook.
