Scouting reports for 2017 Fantasy Football RB prospects
Our friends at PlayerProfiler, an advanced stats and metrics-focused site, outline the strengths and weaknesses of the top running back prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft. Reviewing players through an analytical prism, the PlayerProfiler team examined each running back’s comparable players and range of outcomes in the NFL, as well their short and long-term upside for Fantasy Football.
Special to Yahoo Sports
By PlayerProfiler
Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (PlayerProfiler #1 RB)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 228
Age: 20.6
40 Time: 4.43* (80th percentile)
Speed Score: 113.2 (93rd percentile)
Burst Score: 118.5 (45th percentile)
Agility Score: 11.25 (57th percentile)
Bench: 21 reps (59th percentile)
Best Comparable: Ezekiel Elliott
*Average pro day 40 times are .05 faster than Combine times
Mixon is one of the most controversial players in this year’s draft. He rushed for 1,274 yards on only 187 carries, and tacked on 37 receptions for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns in a stellar sophomore campaign at Oklahoma. Averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per touch, Mixon scored 15 total touchdowns despite splitting carries with Samaje Perine.
Mixon displays all the tools necessary to be a successful NFL running back, but the most impressive aspect of his game may be his receiving skills. He averaged 13.8 yards per reception on 65 catches over two seasons, as he was able to function in both the short and downfield passing game.
Mixon was also able to maintain his efficiency over the course of two college seasons, as he increased his yards per touch from 7.9 in his freshman season to 8.1 despite handling 83 more touches. His 6.8 yards per carry in college ranks in the 91st percentile among NFL running backs.
While Mixon’s 24.7-percent College Dominator only places him in the 42nd percentile, keep in mind that Mixon was second on the team in carries next to Perine. Mixon still gained 214 more rushing yards than Perine in 2016, and was far and away the better receiving back.
The biggest questions about Mixon come off the field. He was not invited to the combine because of an incident in 2014 in which he was caught on tape punching a woman. He was suspended for the 2014 season.
Mixon did put on a show at his pro day, running a 4.47 40-yard dash and posting a 114.22 Speed Score, which ranks in the 95th percentile of NFL running backs. He also put up 21 reps on the bench press. Mixon’s athletic profile is comparable to Ezekiel Elliot’s, and his pro day workout confirmed his status as perhaps the most talented running back in the draft class.
Each NFL team will have to figure out where it stands on Mixon.
-Kevin McHugh
[Scouting reports for 2017 Fantasy Football QB prospects]
Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (PlayerProfiler #2 RB)
Height: 5-11
Weight: 202
Age: 20.8
40 Time: 4.48 (80th percentile)
Speed Score: 100.3 (61st percentile)
Burst Score: 124.3 (77th percentile)
Agility Score: 10.79 (96th percentile)
Bench: 10 reps (0 percentile)
Best Comparable: Duke Johnson
After a stellar career at Stanford, McCaffrey declared for the draft, as he had nothing left to prove at the college level. He posted monster numbers in his sophomore season in 2015, rushing for 2,019 yards and 8 touchdowns, while tacking on 45 receptions for 645 yards and 5 touchdowns and finishing second in the Heisman voting.
Although not quite as dynamic in 2016, McCaffrey still was fantastic, amassing 1,603 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, and with 37 receptions, was still able to catch the ball effectively. He played in 3 fewer games in 2016 due to the fact that Stanford did not make the Pac-12 Championship, and he sat out Stanford’s bowl game against Iowa. His ridiculous production led to a 50.7-percent College Dominator, ranking in the 98th percentile as he averaged 6.3 yards per carry, which puts him in the 77-percentile among NFL running backs.
McCaffrey dominated at the Combine, posting a 4.48 40-yard dash, placing him in the 80th percentile. He also posted a 100.3 (61st percentile) Speed Score, 124.3 (77th percentile) Burst Score, and a 10.79 (96th percentile) Agility Score. Displaying excellent hands and even spending time in the passing drills with the wide receivers, McCaffrey showed scouts that he’s ready for the next level, and has cemented himself as a top 5 pick in dynasty rookie drafts.
Unfortunately, McCaffrey may not be suited for a heavy workload in the NFL, as his 5-foot-11, 202-pound frame puts him in the 10th percentile with a 28.2 BMI. He also underwhelmed on the bench press, managing only 10 reps. It may be necessary for McCaffrey to add some weight in muscle in preparation for the grind ahead.
McCaffrey has the potential to be a PPR monster in Fantasy Football, as there will be plenty of comparisons to Danny Woodhead moving forward. If McCaffrey is able to add muscle while maintaining his athleticism, the sky could be the limit.
-Kevin McHugh
Leonard Fournette, LSU (PlayerProfiler #3 RB)
Height: 6-0
Weight: 240
Age: 22.2
40-Yard Dash: 4.51 (70th percentile)
Speed Score: 116.0 (96th percentile)
Best Comparable: Steven Jackson
Fournette recorded a 28.5-inch vertical at the combine. Mass hysteria ensued. The metrics community became enraged and delirious after a single test. Just wait until they realize that Fournette is old for a young guy. Deep breath, guys. Can someone please ask Ole Miss if Fournette’s meager vertical mattered when he rolled up 284 rushing yards on them in 16 attempts? I’ll wait. While I’m waiting, if someone could also peel Ole Miss Safety, Deontay Anderson, off the turf and get his opinion that would be fantastic.
Focus on the details that matter. Fournette showed productivity and efficiency against elite competition. In Fournette’s finest college season in the SEC, he produced a 38.8-percent College Dominator (82nd-percentile). Not to mention, this high-volume production all culminated with a 6.5 College Yards Per Carry (84th-percentile).
Fournette possesses both superior athleticism and the desirable background as a workhorse back. In the PlayerProfiler.com database, there are six running backs who hold claim to a 115+ Speed Score as well as a greater than 30 percent College Dominator. The “intriguing six” make up quite the elite stable. Their names: Darren McFadden, Derrick Henry, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson and Fournette. Nestled nicely with the Fantasy Football talent of yore, Fournette will deliver like a lightning bolt from the fantasy gods.
-Nathan Aucker
Dalvin Cook, Florida State (PlayerProfiler #4 RB)
Height: 5-10
Weight: 210
Age: 21.6
40-Yard Dash: 4.49 (77th percentile)
Speed Score: 103.3 (70th percentile)
Burst Score: 109.9 (8th percentile)
Agility Score: 11.80 (9th percentile)
Bench: 22 reps (66th percentile)
Best Comparable: Tevin Coleman
A three-year producer at Florida State, running back Cook declared for the draft following his junior season. Already a highly-touted prospect prior to the combine, Cook is a touchdown scoring machine, but ball security issues, injury history and multiple police run-ins surround him heading into the draft.
Cook was No. 2 in the nation in yards from scrimmage in 2016, racking up 2,253 total yards, while amassing 1,765 rush yards and 488 receiving yards. He was no stranger to heavy workloads throughout his time at Florida State, as he posted a College Dominator rating of 38.8 percent, which measures a running backs total of team yards and touchdowns while in college, which falls within the 82nd percentile among NFL running backs. College Dominator Rating for running backs calculates a receiver’s share of total team yards and touchdowns on offense.
Throughout his collegiate career, Cook was an efficient runner who made the most of the space provided for him. He never averaged less than 5.9 yards per carry in any of his three seasons, and finished his 2015 campaign with 7.4 yards per carry while amassing 1,691 rush yards for 19 touchdowns, and 24 receptions for 244 yards and one touchdown.
Cook’s name alone should be synonymous with touchdowns, as he racked up a total of 48 in just 38 career games, and scored 20 total touchdowns in both 2015 and 2016.
Ball security was an issue for Cook throughout his career at Florida State, as he did fumble away 13 carries over his last three seasons, but his play-making ability will still draw the interest of multiple running back needy teams.
Even with his impressive display on film, Cook underwhelmed in multiple areas at the combine. The 5-foot-10, 210-pound running back did post a speedy 4.49 40-yard dash, which was to be expected, but he came up short in agility testing and burst scoring. His 11.80 Agility Score ranked in the 9th percentile among NFL running backs, while his Burst Score of 109.9 placed him in the 8th percentile among NFL running backs.
Cook will also have to answer questions about his multiple run-ins with police throughout his career, dating back to his high school days when he was charged for robbery in 2009 but saw the charges dropped. He also saw charges dropped in 2010 for firing and possessing a weapon on school property. He was most recently arrested in 2015 and was found not guilty of of misdemeanor battery after being accused of punching a 21-year-old woman outside of a Tallahassee bar.
Injuries followed Cook as well for parts of 2015 and 2016, as the running back has already dealt with multiple shoulder surgeries dating back to his high school days, and hamstring issues.
Despite an underwhelming combine, Cook should still remain a top running back prospect in this year’s draft, provided that teams are convinced he is healthy and has cleaned up his history of character concerns. His tape and college production alone show multiple flashes of a dual-threat running back who is capable of reeling off one explosive play after another. Should he find himself on an NFL team with a weak running back corps, Cook could see heavy workloads early and often in 2017, and be a preseason Rookie of the Year candidate.
-Zachary Krueger
Jeremy McNichols, Boise State (PlayerProfiler #5 RB)
Height: 5-9
Weight: 214
Age: 21.2
40-Yard Dash: 4.49 (77th percentile)
Speed Score: 105.3 (76th percentile)
Burst Score: 120.9 (60th percentile)
Agility Score: 11.21 (64th percentile)
Best Comparable: Melvin Gordon
McNichols declared for the draft after three years at Boise State where he amassed 4,294 yards from scrimmage and 44 touchdowns. His production profile, athleticism, all-terrain skill set is matched by few other running backs in a deep running back class.
McNichols was No. 3 in the country in rushing touchdowns and No. 6 in rushing yards in 2016 after posting an astonishing 51 receptions as a true sophomore in 2015. McNichols quietly matched Cook’s production in all phases of the game during his time as a true bell cow back at Boise State. His 41.4 percent College Dominator, measuring McNichols share of team yards and touchdowns, was 89th percentile among NFL running backs.
With increased touches in his third season with the Broncos, McNichols efficiency declined to 5.4 yards per carry. His muted junior season efficiency is attributed to his propensity to attack defenders head on, rather than leveraging diagonal vectors after bursting into the second level.
McNichols’ burst was on display at the combine. His 4.49 40-yard dash was one of the fastest among running back draft prospects, his 105.3 Speed Score was 76th percentile, his 120.9 Burst Score was 60th percentile, and his 11.21 Agility Score was 64th percentile among NFL running backs. With above average workout metrics across the board, McNichols was one of the most athletic running backs in the draft.
McNichols makes up for his lack of vision between the tackles and straight-line-ish running style with passing game dynamism. He’s one of the slickest receiving backs to enter the NFL in recent memory and should immediately assuming satellite back role as a rookie, with the size and workhorse college resume to assume every-down duties if called upon.
Given McNichols’ rare combination of college dominance and exceptional overall athleticism, he is quantitatively more impressive than Cook and rivals McCaffrey. Still under-appreciated by the NFL’s Scouting Industrial Complex, McNichols may be the best-value running back in the draft and Fantasy Football league drafts.
-Matt Kelley
