Scouting reports for 2017 Fantasy Football QB prospects
Our friends at PlayerProfiler, an advanced stats and metrics-focused site, outline the strengths and weaknesses of the top quarterback prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft. Reviewing players through an analytical prism, the PlayerProfiler team examined each quarterback’s comparable players and range of outcomes in the NFL, as well their short and long-term upside for fantasy football.
Special to Yahoo Sports
By PlayerProfiler
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech (PlayerProfiler #1 QB)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 225
Age: 21.5
40 Time: 4.80 (62nd percentile)
Burst Score: 109.5 (46th percentile)
Agility Score: 0.96 (94th percentile)
Throw Velocity: 55 mph (47th percentile)
Best Comparable: Dak Prescott
Mahomes announced his intention to enter the NFL draft after his two-year defense obliteration, which included 10,449 total yards and 74 touchdowns. This tremendous level of production, places Mahomes in rarefied air amid the top of the 2017 NFL Draft quarterback heap.
As a three-star recruit coming out of high school, Mahomes received scholarship offers from Houston, Rice and Texas Tech. Ascending from relative anonymity, Mahomes leveraged his 2016 opportunity by finishing No. 1 in the country with 5052 passing yards. The 5,052 passing yards were the 12th highest passing yardage total since 1956. Despite attempting a whopping 591 passes, Mahomes remained efficient by finishing with the No. 16 Passing Yards Per Attempt. In addition, Mahomes’ 84.3 College QBR was 86th-percentile among NFL quarterbacks per PlayerProfiler.com.
In his final year at Texas Tech, Mahomes improved in every statistical category fueled by six games with 400 or more yards and a mind-bending 734 yards and 5 passing touchdowns and 85 yards rushing with 2 rushing touchdowns against Oklahoma.
Mahomes’ athleticism also impressed at the NFL Scouting Combine. Mahomes’s 4.80 40-yard dash was 62nd-percentile, aligning nicely with Dak Prescott’s 4.79 40-yard dash time a year ago. The real separation for Mahomes can be seen in his 10.96 Agility Score (94th-percentile) per PlayerProfiler.com. For reference, this level of short area quickness puts Mahomes in the class of Tyrod Taylor and Marcus Mariota.
While Mahomes compares favorably to successful mobile NFL quarterbacks, his playing style and draft prospect scouting report often mirrors Derek Carr. At Fresno State, Carr was criticized for frequent off-balance/off-platform throws, operating in a spread offense, and benefiting from constant shootouts.
Given that Mahomes hails from the Big 12, skeptics point to his success as a byproduct of the tactical spread offense. This narrative seems to follow Big 12 quarterbacks and Mahomes will make this lazy analysis obsolete. Whether through his impressive agility or his accurate arm, Mahomes will boost fantasy football squads and one sharp NFL team.
-Nathan Aucker
Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina (PlayerProfiler #2 QB)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 222
Age: 22.6
40 Time: 4.67 (85th percentile)
Burst Score: 106.1 (31st percentile)
Agility Score: 11.12 (80th percentile)
Throw Velocity: 51 mph (15th percentile)
Best Comparable: Teddy Bridgewater
Trubisky declared for the NFL Draft after getting the most out of his junior season at North Carolina, passing for 3,748 yards and 30 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Trubisky also completed 68.0 percent of his passes while averaging 10.1 yards per attempt over the course of his college career. He also posted an 89.2 College QBR, putting him in the 94th percentile of active NFL quarterbacks. In addition, Trubisky rushed for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns, displaying a solid combination of arm strength, accuracy and mobility that propelled him toward the top of the list of rookie quarterback prospects.
Trubisky’s inability to supplant Marquise Williams in his third year at UNC as a redshirt sophomore was a concern. Williams threw for only 3,000 yards with a 61.2% completion percentage in 2015, while Trubisky held a clipboard in a critical year for his development. Additionally, Trubisky benefited from playing with Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer in 2016, two of top-30 receivers in this draft class.
At the 2017 NFL Combine, Trubisky was able to put his athleticism on display, running a 4.67 40-yard dash and posting a 11.12 Agility Score, ranking in the 85th and 80th percentile among NFL quarterbacks, respectively. Trubisky also posted a 94.7 SPARQ-x Score, placing him in the 61st percentile, as he proved his athleticism already ranks as one of the best among quarterbacks.
While Trubisky has displayed all of the tools necessary to be a solid NFL quarterback, there are still questions regarding his limited experience in college. Although Trubisky saw action in 31 games in his career at North Carolina, he was unable to win a starting job until his junior season. Additional concerns include the fact that he struggled against top competition, with poor performances against Georgia, Virginia Tech, and Stanford.
Trubisky’s unique combination of arm strength, accuracy, and mobility makes him a solid option for a team in need of a quarterback. Although it may be in his best interest to sit and learn from a veteran QB in his first NFL season, Trubisky possesses the physical talent to overcome his lack of experience, and in the right situation could provide value at the position in fantasy football leagues as a rookie.
-Kevin McHugh
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame (PlayerProfiler #3 QB)
Height: 6-4
Weight: 233
Age: 21.2
40 Time: 4.83 (54th percentile)
Burst Score: 106.9 (35th percentile)
Agility Score: 11.93 (11th percentile)
Throw Velocity: 52 mph (20th percentile)
Best Comparable: Blake Bortles
After redshirt sophomore, Kizer, recorded 6,808 all-purpose yards over two years at Notre Dame, he surprisingly declared for the NFL Draft. As the NFL has no problem with taking chances on young quarterbacks, Kiser’s prototypical frame and age-adjusted college production place him in the discussion with the top quarterbacks in the 2017 class.
When Deshone Kizer scorched Texas for 6 total touchdowns to begin the 2016 season, the enthusiasm surrounding his sublime potential ballooned. However, the rest of Kizer’s inconsistent season resulted in more questions. Objectively, there are worthy justifications for Kizer’s varied results. At the top of the list, the loss of C.J. Prosise and Will Fuller to the NFL put more stress on Kizer to deliver production on his own. In addition, playing a game through Hurricane Matthew, will also hurt the counting statistics, as Kizer can attest. Regardless, Kizer regressed in 2016 as his completion percentage and yards per attempted declined from 2015.
Most concerning was that Deshone Kizer’s athleticism underwhelmed at the NFL Scouting Combine. Kizer’s 4.83 40-yard dash was 54th-percentile, his 106.9 Burst Score was 35th-percentile, and his 11.93 Agility Score was 11th-percentile among NFL quarterbacks. Kizer’s below average workout metrics do not provide a reasonable expectation of success in the running game at the NFL level. In fact, the most comparable quarterbacks athletically to Kizer, have averaged only 162 rushing yards per year in the NFL over the past four years.
Despite lacking an elite level of college production when compared to other quarterback prospects, Kizer’s youth and projectable 6-foot-4, 233-pound NFL size make him a tempting, if risky, addition for quarterback hungry NFL GMs.
-Nathan Aucker
Deshaun Watson, Clemson (PlayerProfiler #4 QB)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 221
Age: 21.5
40 Time: 4.66 (86th percentile)
Burst Score: 116.4 (77th percentile)
Agility Score: 11.26 (70th percentile)
Throw Velocity: 45 mph (1st percentile)
Best Comparable: Tyrod Taylor
After a highly visible and prolific collegiate career that concluded with a National Championship victory in a rematch with Alabama, Watson had nothing left to prove at Clemson, immediately declaring for the NFL draft after a performance for the ages. Watson put up monster numbers at the college level, throwing for 10,168 yards and 90 touchdowns against 32 interceptions, while rushing for 1,934 yards and 26 touchdowns over the course of his career. Having completed 67.4 percent of his passes and posting an 85.8 College QBR, Watson’s statistics indicate that he is the most NFL-ready quarterback prospect in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Watson showed plenty at the NFL Combine, posting a 4.66 40-yard dash, while displaying fantastic athleticism with a 116.4 Burst Score, 11.26 Agility Score, and 98.9 (72nd percentile) SPARQ-x Score. Watson was also impressive in the passing drills, and scouts were raving about his intangibles, leadership qualities, and big-game experience.
While Watson has been impressive in his preparation for the draft, he struggled with accuracy and consistency at times even with a fantastic supporting cast at Clemson, one of the best college programs in terms of developing talent at the skill positions. Watson wasn’t particularly efficient in college, as his 8.1 College YPA ranks in only the 50th percentile among current NFL quarterbacks. He also struggled to take care of the football, throwing 30 interceptions over the last two seasons, averaging one interception per game. Due to the fact that he played in a spread offense while taking snaps primarily out of the shotgun, Watson will have to show that he can adjust to an NFL-style offense.
Watson’s shortcomings were magnified by his CFL-caliber arm strength. Topping out at 45 MPH, Watson would have one of the weakest throwing arms in the NFL. In fact, only Tyrod Taylor and Mike Glennon are the only two projected NFL starters who were unable to hit 52 MPH on the radar gun at the combine. Teams drafting Watson would be betting on one of the draft’s true outlier at any position.
Despite these red flags, Watson displays excellent intangibles and athleticism, and will likely be a first-round selection. Although Watson could use some time on the bench, he could provide value in fantasy football leagues if he ends up in the right situation.
-Kevin McHugh
