Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey will face each other for California’s U.S. Senate seat this fall

Adam Schiff, the veteran congressman who led the impeachment of Donald Trump, and Steve Garvey, the former all-star baseball player, won the top two spots in California’s U.S. Senate primary and will battle for the seat in November’s general election.

Schiff, a Los Angeles area congressman, got the race he wanted, as polls show him defeating Garvey in the fall by double digits.

Garvey barely campaigned in the runup to the primary, while Schiff and his backers ran millions of dollars in ads reminding voters Garvey was a diehard conservative. California hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988.

The strategy worked. Republicans rallied around Garvey, pushing Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee to third and fourth place Tuesday in a race where only the top two finishers advance to the general election.

Garvey and Schiff will vie for the seat now held by Sen. Laphonza Butler, D-Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom named her last year to fill the seat of the late Dianne Feinstein, who died in September.

Californians Tuesday cast two votes for their next senator. One is for nominees to fill the remaining two months of the Feinstein term. The other is for nominees the full six year term that begins in January. Both races will be on the November ballot

In the race for the full term, with 41% of the votes counted, Schiff led with 36%, followed by Garvey at 30% followed by Porter at 15% and Lee at 7%.

The partial term result had Schiff ahead with 33% to Garvey’s 31.5%, Porter’s 17% and Lee’s 9%, with 40% of votes counted.

Schiff’s victory speech Tuesday night was disrupted by protesters. After chanting “cease-fire now” about a minute after Schiff began speaking, the congressman, who appeared somewhat shaken, calmly said, “We are so lucky to live in a democracy where we all have the right to protest.”

The protesters continued, and Schiff stopped speaking. He thanked supporters, then stopped again.

He then praised what he called his “incredible constituents,” singling out House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, a longtime ally. He recalled Feinstein and their work on congressional intelligence committees.

Addressing supporters as the votes rolled in, Garvey used baseball analogies to describe the path ahead. He said that as a player, he didn’t play for Democrats, Republicans or independents. “I played for all the fans, and tonight I’m running for all the people,” he said.

Garvey described Tuesday’s primary as “the first game of a doubleheader.” Remember, he said, “they say in the general election we’re going to strike out. That’s from the crowd that believes in the status quo.”

Schiff, 63, ran a traditional Senate campaign. He’s raised the most money, about half from out of state, buoyed by his highly-publicized leadership in impeaching former Trump.

He’s been endorsed by most of California’s Democratic members of Congress, including Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. He’s also backed by Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg.

Schiff, a congressman since 2001, emphasized familiar Democratic positions on issues–reducing prescription drug costs, boosting the child tax credit, taking steps to combat climate change, providing more affordable housing and more.

Porter, 50, also talked extensively about the same issues. What’s distinguished her is her maverick streak, highlighting her work advocating for consumers in the House and aggressively challenging corporate executives during hearings and in legislation.

She thanked supporters Tuesday night and vowed to keep fighting for her causes. “So many people in power are too interested in helping other powerful people instead of paying attention to the needs of everyday people,” she said.

Lee, 77, long a favorite of progressives, has relied on a grassroots campaign. Among her supporters are Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Lee has been a member of Congress since 1998, and gained prominence in 2001 when she was the only lawmakers to vote against authorizing U.S. combat in Afghanistan.

She was far behind Schiff and Porter in fundraising and polls, and was banking on a strong get out the vote effort. Barely one in 10 registered voters cast ballots in early voting, and low turnout was expected Tuesday.

“Our campaign has always been about giving a voice to people who don’t feel heard in Washington — and I’m exceptionally proud of the grassroots, multi-ethnic, cross-generational coalition this campaign built across California to send someone who will fight for them and speak truth to power in the Senate, “ Lee said in a statement Tuesday night.

The Garvey effect

Garvey, 75, was an unpredictable force in the race. He’s never run for public office, and did little campaigning. His staff has not given the media any campaign schedules and rarely replies to requests for comment.

Schiff and his backers have spent millions on ads touting Garvey’s conservative views, a strategy seen as an effort to boost Garvey in GOP circles. It appears to have worked, as the Republican surged into a statistical tie with Schiff in polls taken in the closing weeks of the race.

AdImpact, which tracks political ad spending, found $67.6 million has been spent on advertising, “easily establishing it as the most expensive 2024 state Super Tuesday election,” an analysis by the firm said. Democratic candidates have spent roughly two-thirds of the money. Schiff and his supporters had spent an estimated $28.2 million as of mid-February, AdImpact said.

Garvey relied on the name recognition he gained as an all-star first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the 1970s and 1980s. He’s also counting on his embrace of conservative positions, views that the Democrats find chilling.

He’s criticized “career politicians” for creating the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years and overspending government money. He said he voted for Trump twice, but would not commit to supporting him this time.

“When the time comes ... I will look at the two opponents, I will determine what they did, and at that time, I will make my choice,” Garvey said in a debate last month.

Partisan divisions

Early exit polls showed stark divisions depending on ideology, education and age.

Porter easily won 30 to 44 year olds. Garvey won 45 to 64 year olds, and Schiff was the favorite of voters over 65.

Voters who thought the economy was doing well gave Schiff a big majority. Those who saw it doing poorly gave Garvey a 2 to 1 edge.

Schiff won both liberals and moderates, despite Lee’s close ties to the liberal community. About one-fourth of voters said they were conservative, and three of four went for Garvey.

In a switch from the usual partisan orthodoxy, Garvey was slightly ahead among college graduates, while Schiff was up among others.

Lee was the only major Black candidate in the race, but Schiff got 29% support from voters of color. Garvey got 25%, Porter had 21% and Lee had 13%.