San Francisco 49ers at Bills 2016 Odds and Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers are hoping a new starting quarterback might provide the spark to help them get of the schnei d when they travel east to take on the Buffalo Bills. The game will be played at New Era Field on Sunday, October 16th at 10:00am PT. Here are some things to take into consideration from a wagering perspective.
Current line: Bills (-7.5), O/U at 44
Results from 2015 season: These teams did not play each other in 2015.
San Francisco offense/defense: After five games, the 49ers rank 26th in total offense and 22nd in offensive efficiency. 49ers defense is currently ranked 17th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and 22nd in total defense. In terms of total team efficiency, 49ers are ranked 26th in total DVOA. Colin Kapernick has not played any meaningful snaps this season to generate any statistical analysis at this time.
Bills offense/defense: After five games, the Bills rank 23rd in total offense and 12th in offensive efficiency. Tyrod Taylor is 19th in DYAR with a 69.1 QBR which is 6th best among QBs. Bills defense is currently ranked 11th in DVOA and 17th in total defense. In terms of total team efficiency, Buffalo is ranked 8th in total DVOA.
Recent trends:
49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
49ers are 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road.
49ers are 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
The total has gone over in 5 of 49ers last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone over in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games at home.
AROUND COVER32
Winners and Losers: 3 up and 3 down
NFL Mailbag: Quarterback controversies and low ratings
Rams Lose At Home: Los Angeles loses winnable game at the Coliseum
Bad Decisions: Fisher and staff continue making bad decisions
Mixed Bag in L.A: The hometown team has become a riddle
Prediction:
The biggest question mark is how Colin Kaepernick will perform on the road in his first start of 2016 after all the drama that has preceded it up to this point. Bottom line, while Kap could play better than Gabbert, there is no evidence from this season or last that would suggest he going to play significantly better than Gabbert and going east to Buffalo might be one of the worst possible spots to try and regain some of his older glory.
No need to think too hard about this one, San Francisco’s defense is in decline without Navorro Bowman, Bills are on a roll, 49ers have to travel east and play in a raucous stadium, and all of this leads me to believe that the Bills win this game by more than 8 points.
Last Week: Win (Cardinals -4)
Season ATS: 4-1
Season SU: 5-0 (see win total prediction for 2016 49ers here)
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