Russia's strategy on Sumy front is to fix Ukrainian forces in northern border areas – ISW

The New Voice of Ukraine
·3 min read
A Ukrainian soldier in the Zaporizhzhya sector of the frontline near the town of Orikhiv, May 20, 2024
A Ukrainian soldier in the Zaporizhzhya sector of the frontline near the town of Orikhiv, May 20, 2024

The Russian grouping in the Sumy sector, although insufficient for serious offensive operations, threatens to stretch the Ukrainian army even further, according to the latest report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War released on May 20.

Meanwhile, Russian troops have made new confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and west of Donetsk, as well as in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and the Dnipro River Delta.

<span class="copyright">ISW</span>
ISW
<span class="copyright">ISW</span>
ISW
<span class="copyright">ISW</span>
ISW
<span class="copyright">ISW</span>
ISW

The ISW analysts drew attention to Ukrainian sources' data that the Russians are concentrating limited, understaffed and disjointed forces in the Sumy sector. However, even such a Russian grouping is likely to achieve the desired effect – the goal of drawing back the Ukrainian forces and fixing them near the international border. In particular, Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of the Third Separate Assault Brigade operating in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, said on May 20 that Russian forces, including Chechens, were amassing on the Sumy front. He suggested, however, that the limited number of Russian troops indicates Russia's goal of drawing back Ukrainian Armed Forces. On May 20, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast consists of 9,000-10,000 people. Mashovets said that this grouping includes:


  • up to three incomplete motorized rifle regiments (each lacking one or two battalions)

  • eight motorized rifle, tank and infantry battalions;

  • one battalion of airborne (VDV) troops;

  • at least two assault detachments (at the level of a reinforced company or an understaffed battalion).

ISW continues to assess that even limited Russian activity along various parts of the international border – particularly in Sumy Oblast – could lead to the stretching of Ukrainian forces along a wider front, even if the capabilities of these Russian groupings are below the threshold of Russian offensive operations. The Russians will be able to pull back the Ukrainian forces and "fix" them in the area as long as Russia is able to threaten Ukraine with penetration into other border areas, except for the north of Kharkiv Oblast, ISW concludes.

Meanwhile, Russian troops have made new confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka and west of Donetsk, as well as in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and the Dnipro River Delta.

In particular, in the Dnipro delta, Russian troops have made some marginal advances on Velykyi Potemkin Island. Geolocated footage from May 19 shows that the Russian troops have recently advanced to the southern part of the island.

Read also: Military expert warns of unstabilized Kharkiv front, potential threats to Sumy

To the west of Avdiivka, Russian troops have recently advanced in the western part of Netaylove village (confirmed by geolocated footage from May 18).

In Vovchansk, according to geolocated footage from May 18, Russian troops recently advanced into the town center north of the Vovcha River. At the same time, Russian "milbloggers" claimed that the Russian forces had advanced 150-600 meters near Vovchansk. At the same time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian troops continued their offensive near Vovchansk and Starytsia (southwest of Vovchansk).

In the direction west of Donetsk, Russian troops advanced southeast of Krasnohorivka, which was confirmed by footage from May 20.

In Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Russian troops have recently advanced in the northern part of Robotyne village and may have captured the village, ISW suggests. Geo-located footage posted on May 18 shows a Russian soldier surrendering in the northeastern part of Robotyne, while geo-located footage from May 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking at Russian troops in the northwestern part of Robotyno.

Near Chasiv Yar, geolocated footage from May 18 shows that the Russian units have recently advanced in the southern part of the Kanal neighborhood (eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar). Geolocated footage from May 19 shows that Russian troops have recently advanced into the southern part of Klishchiyivka (a village southeast of Chasiv Yar).

Read also: HUR chief’s public warning on Russia’s attack on Sumy explained by Ukrainian vet

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