Russian tactical advances in Avdiivka fall short of breakthrough, ISW reports
The recent withdrawal of the Ukrainian forces from Berdychiv and Semenivka, north of Avdiivka, has put the Russian command in a strategic decision-making position, according to an April 28 analysis by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian forces can either advance toward Pokrovsk or turn north to increase pressure on Ukrainian defenders in Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka. Despite these withdrawals, the report notes that Russia's tactical gains have not yet resulted in rapid progress.
In the near future, Russian troops are expected to continue their tactical maneuvers in the Avdiivka sector, similar to the gradual advancements seen west of Ocheretyne, Solovyovo, Berdychiv, and Semenivka. Ukrainian military leaders may opt for further strategic retreats if other positions become jeopardized. Despite this, Ukrainian forces could potentially utilize strategically positioned windbreaks west of the current front lines to hinder further Russian offensives. The expected arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional equipment may compel Russian commanders to reconsider their immediate operational goals or to deploy more reserves to maintain momentum in the sector. Currently, Russian forces are aligning their reserves in anticipation of a major offensive this summer, with significant tactical opportunities near Chasiv Yar.
Although the Ukrainian forces lack manpower and resources, they have successfully prevented the Russian forces from achieving significant success in the Avdiivka sector. Therefore, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are reinforced in this section of the front, the Russians may need to reconsider their further advancements or bring in additional reserves.
Looking ahead, the Russian command faces a choice between continuing to advance westward to Pokrovsk or shifting north to support their efforts to capture Chasiv Yar and put pressure on Ukrainian forces defending in the Toretsk area. However, the report highlights the importance of Chasiv Yar as a crucial operational springboard for launching an offensive against Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka. The Russian tactical breakthrough near Ocheretyne, located southwest of Toretsk, is strategically positioned to achieve these objectives.
The ISW analysts have also noted the recent statements of Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, regarding a potential threat to the city of Kharkiv. While there are no signs of direct enemy preparation for offensive actions in northern Ukraine, there has been a build-up and regrouping of enemy troops in the Kharkiv sector. However, the lack of forces available to Russian troops make it unlikely for them to capture the city.
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