Russia's Summer Wargames Are Making NATO Nervous
Russia's summer wargames, named Zapad ("West") 2017, are set to kick off in September but are already setting off alarm bells across Europe. Held every four years, the Zapad exercises are a window into Russia's military prowess-and perhaps future intentions.
The exercises, held jointly between Russia and neighboring Belarus, will take place later this summer in the two countries, involving the armed forces of both. According to Belarus' defense minister, "Up to 12,700 servicemen are planned to be involved in the drills. About 10,200 troops will be involved on the territory of our country, including 7,200 servicemen from the Belarusian Armed Forces and about 3,000 from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation." The minister also stated that 680 pieces of military hardware, including armored vehicles, would take part in the exercises. Zapad 2017 will take place at six different training grounds scattered across the two countries.
The location of the exercises, in Central Europe near NATO members states Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, has made NATO nervous-especially after Russia's secret 2014 war in Ukraine and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The Zapad 2013 exercises, also held by Russia and Belarus, were publicly claimed to involve approximately 12,000 troops but in reality that number was more like 90,000, according to the Atlantic Council. How many troops will really exercise in September is anyone's guess, although some NATO members believe the true number of troops will be around 100,000.
Exercises are also used by the Russian government to shift forces around to prepare for actual combat operations. In 2008, military exercises preceded Russia's invasion of neighboring Georgia. In 2014, the Russian government staged exercises involving 150,000 troops near the Russian-Ukrainian border. After the exercise many of the units stayed in the area to participate in the subsequent war with Ukraine.
Past Zapad exercises have also featured new tactics and technologies later seen in subsequent conflicts. Western observers first noticed Russia's use of unmanned aerial vehicles to spot for artillery and assess the effects of artillery strikes at Zapad 2013. The exercise was also notable for its use of tactical missiles for deep strikes and anti-guerrilla operations, which were later put to use in Syria.
Zapad actually predates the Russian Federation, having originated in the old Soviet Union. The Zapad '81 wargames were huge, involving involved between 100,000 and 150,000 Soviet Warsaw Pact military personnel, tank armies, large numbers of aircraft and ships, and even simulated use of tactical nuclear weapons.
For its part, Russia claims it is trying to be as transparent as possible with the exercises, including inviting 80 observers from NATO, the United Nations, and other countries. But the only know the aftermath is to wait and see.
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