Russia advances while Ukraine lacks weapons and manpower— analyst interview

Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder and analyst of the DeepState military open-source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring project, talked to NV Radio on April 15, giving an overview of the current situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

NV: From what I see, the Russians are exerting pressure along the entire front line. What do you think is the most critical area we should focus on?

Pohorilyi: About the fact that the enemy continues the offensive, they have resources. Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is one of the hottest spots. But we also have the area around Avdiivka and Mariinka, where the enemy, in addition to storming Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, also concentrated on Krasnohorivka. We’re currently seeing active fighting on the southern outskirts of this town.

NV: This is Krasnohorivka, which is near Mariinka, right?

Pohorilyi: Yes, but hostilities are also taking place north of Krasnohorivka, which is in the Avdiivka area. The enemy has also ramped up assaults there and continues to exert pressure along the entire line from Berdychi to Pervomaiske, on all settlements located along the Durna River. They include Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, and Tonenke.

NV: This is all in the general Avdiivka area?

Pohorilyi: Yes, in the Avdiivka area, different tactics are used there. If we talk about Berdychi, there are some constant infantry assaults. They’re trying to gain a foothold, make some breaches in our defense. But our soldiers immediately counter them.

NV: How significant is the current Russian offensive?

Pohorilyi: It’s all significant as they’re advancing. Once they gain a foothold, it’s very difficult to oust them, and it takes a lot of resources to get the territory back. In addition, more of our territory falls under occupation.

If the Russians see success somewhere, some weak spots, they immediately amass forces there, applying more pressure.

Now the enemy has concentrated and stepped up in many areas, including Robotyne, Mariinka, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Lyman... And most likely, we’ll soon see their offensive near Kupyansk [Kharkiv Oblast] as they’re redeploying their units towards it. Most likely, they’ll also start exerting pressure there.

NV: Let’s talk about Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Can we say that Robotyne is now a gray area? I saw footage of what Robotyne looks like, it’s a village of craters. Everything is destroyed there. The question is whether Russian troops can gain a foothold there? Is it now no man’s land?

Pohorilyi: I wouldn’t say, because there are our military positions still in place, there’s resistance, they’re holding the line. We cannot call all that area ‘gray,’ because the Muscovites cannot gain a foothold in the positions where our troops are deployed.

Now they’re trying to advance from Novoprokopivka, from the southern and south-western suburbs. They’ve focused a lot on artillery shelling, but there’s almost nothing to shell.

Footage shot by the 65th brigade was released today, which shows that Robotyne no longer exists physically, it’s just a ruin, solid flat land — everything is simply razed into dust. And still, the enemy is trying to advance there.

We see that our soldiers can and are still holding on in that area, although it’s very difficult. The situation is getting gradually worse.

In addition to Robotyne, it’s worth paying attention to Staromayorske and Urozhayne, where the enemy is also advancing.

NV: Chasiv Yar. It seems the situation is getting worse every day. Many people may think the enemy is succeeding there. To what extent can we now talk about Russia being able to seize the town?

Pohorilyi: We see there is a red line between [the village of] Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar, south of the town. They’re trying to [advance] with infantry along the ridge. One squad climbs up, consolidates, but is then destroyed. Two climbed up, broke through, but will be destroyed. And that’s how they’re trying to saturate the area with infantry.

They’re doing the same with the wooded line, which is on the eastern outskirts, in front of private homes. There is a small forest there, which they’re also trying to saturate with infantry, to gain a foothold. This area has recently seen many bombs dropped and FPV drone attacks.

NV: What are their tactics? Our forces are inflicting maximum damage on the enemy by all available means, but it doesn’t seem to limit the enemy’s capability there. Can Russia just keep throwing troops at Chasiv Yar, repeatedly?

Pohorilyi: In general, yes. They have a lot of infantry troops. And we must consider that they don’t care how many will die, one, two, or 100, others will come and continue marching. Our soldiers have to deal with these waves of infantry. It takes a lot of resources.

But there is still another challenge for our military: Russian aviation. First, warplanes destroy the town, dropping FAB-500 [bombs] and guided bombs, leveling everything. They then enter these ruins on foot.

We’ve already had several settlements completely razed, with only their names left on maps. Robotyne, Yampolivka, almost all the villages along the contact line near Avdiivka have also been destroyed. Moscow is using this tactic of destruction.

Advancing infantry and armor are also supported by Su-25 jets. And this whole combination creates enough pressure for them to advance, destroying every settlement in their path.

Read also: Russia aims to capture Chasiv Yar in Donbas by May 9 - Ukraine's army chief Syrskyi

NV: In recent months, it has become clear that Russian war planes present a grave danger to our forces.

Pohorilyi: This is a problem. The lack of air defense systems in the area is evident. We need them desperately. We need as many other weapons as possible, too. We have some, of course — volunteers are trying to help with fundraising for FPV drones. But volunteers, unfortunately, cannot provide Javelin [portable anti-aircraft defense systems], anti-tank guided missiles or any other heavy weapons that can be used to destroy armor.

In general, of course, we also need people, constant troop rotations. We need commanders — and this is in general, not just about Chasiv Yar — we need to replace commanders who don’t value their troops or know how to properly analyze the battlefield.

In the case of Chasiv Yar, countering enemy aviation is the top priority.

Read also: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signs new mobilization bill

NV: Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov recently wrote about how to solve the problem with mobilization. Among other things, he said that Ukraine has been slow in overhauling and ramping up drafting more troops. And that significantly demotivates those already serving in the military. And now demobilization during martial law looks out of sight entirely. Do you agree that it’s a major problem?

Pohorilyi: It affects a lot of things. The main component is motivation for soldiers to continue fighting. Because their eyes are fading, being so long without rotation, constantly in battle, looking at the whole situation in the rear. We lost a lot of time. And there are many cases with fairness…

NV: What do you mean by fairness?

Pohorilyi: I mean that for some reason, during mobilization, we still have parties in restaurants and gyms are full of people.

Recently, there were videos of some people fighting on Khreshchatyk Street [in Kyiv], with many onlookers. At the same time, our soldiers are sitting in the trenches, watching all this, asking themselves: “Why have I been sitting here for some time now, and no one is replacing me?” They at least want to have some rest to regain strength and get back into the fight. They see all this, while the military gets swaths of unmotivated recruits, many of whom have serious health conditions, because our military medical commissions are willing to overlook almost any health issue in the name of expediency. And then the commanders sit and think about where to look for capable recruits to replace the new ones who went AWOL...

NV: AWOL is ‘absent without official leave.’ This is a terrible acronym. I’m very afraid that we will be hearing it more often soon.

Pohorily: It’s already often heard, but just not discussed publicly.

NV: In fact, this is desertion.

Pohorilyi: It’s not publicized because AWOL necessarily entails a lot of red tape with heaps of documents and reports to file. And instead of carrying out tasks, holding the enemy back, our commanders sit and think about how they can accomplish this task without enough people. Because very often our units have enough personnel only on paper.

And all these factors combine, demotivating the troops and complicating the entire process.

The MPs have just passed a bill that doesn’t regulate mobilization, this entire process. They couldn’t even introduce harsher penalties for draft dodgers. We don’t know how or when these key issues will be addressed.

And so, the problem remains: the enemy is advancing, our soldiers have been holding back this whole onslaught for two years. They are tired, and problems with our military are unresolved. It’s very difficult.

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