How RFK Jr.'s debate dilemma compares to past third-party candidates: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki compares how Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s polling compares to that of past third-party candidates who qualified for debates. Plus, Katherine Doyle, who has been documenting every day of Donald Trump's hush money trial, lays out what comes next now that the defense has rested its case.

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RFK Jr. presents a historical debate dilemma

By Steve Kornacki

In his quest to qualify for the presidential debates, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could confront organizers and rival campaigns with a dilemma they haven’t seriously encountered in decades.

As of now, Kennedy seems unlikely to make the stage for the leadoff June 27 debate. This mainly has to do with the ballot access requirements set by sponsor CNN. To participate, he must be qualified for the ballot in states that account for at least 270 electoral votes. But that may not even be possible, with some states not even processing submitted petitions until the end of the summer.

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When it comes to the other main criterion, though, Kennedy could clear it. CNN has designated 12 national pollsters and set a rule that any debate participant must reach 15% support in at least four of their polls from March 13 to June 20. Here are all of the polls conducted so far that fall under that umbrella, with the support level each showed for Kennedy and two other prospective third-party entrants, Cornel West and Jill Stein:

Even if he does meet CNN’s polling requirement, it won’t by itself land Kennedy on the June debate stage. But the fact that he’s already halfway there places him in rare historical company and hints at further controversy around other debates this summer and fall.

Starting with 1976, televised general election debates have been a part of every campaign. And generally, multiple independent candidates seek to join the Democratic and Republican nominees onstage. But almost always, those candidates are polling in the low single digits at best. Excluding them and limiting the proceedings to the major-party nominees doesn’t typically cause much commotion.

But three times since 1976, independent candidates have consistently polled in the double-digit range, like Kennedy is now.

In 1980, there was Rep. John Anderson, a liberal Republican from Illinois who ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primaries and then entered the race as an independent. The League of Women Voters, which back then took the lead in organizing debates, announced it would consider several polls and invite Anderson to participate if he could reach 15% by Labor Day.

He did and was promptly invited to the fall’s first debate, along with Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. But Carter’s campaign believed Anderson was mainly drawing votes from it. So Carter announced that he would take part in a three-way debate only if there first was a one-on-one showdown with Reagan. Reagan refused that demand, and the League’s debate went off as scheduled in September — with just Reagan and Anderson participating.

That is the only nationally televised general election debate ever to have featured just one major-party nominee. In its aftermath, Reagan’s polling improved, while Anderson’s support dipped under 10%. Carter held fast to his demand, though, and no debates took place for more than a month. Finally, in late October, the League announced that, because of his polling decline, Anderson would no longer be included, and the only Reagan-Carter debate was promptly scheduled.

By 1992, debate sponsorship had shifted to the Commission on Presidential Debates, the bipartisan group that has (so far) been shoved aside this year. The 1992 debates remain the only ones to have included a third candidate along with the major-party nominees: Ross Perot.

The commission’s inclusion criteria were subjective; candidates deemed to have a “realistic chance” of winning were invited. Perot, who had led in three-way polls in the late spring before he dropped out of the race for 10 weeks, had become such a national sensation that neither the commission nor the Bill Clinton and George Bush campaigns felt comfortable excluding him.

But when Perot ran again in 1996, he was shut out. The commission’s criteria hadn’t changed, but Perot’s star had dimmed. A Gallup Poll released just as the commission officially ruled him out in September put Perot at just 7% against Clinton and Bob Dole.

In the 28 years since then, a couple of third-party candidates (Ralph Nader in 2000, Gary Johnson in 2016) reached the mid to high single digits in polling — enough to stir some controversy but not nearly enough to compel their inclusion in debates. But, especially if he can expand his support by a few points, saying no to Kennedy could be a lot harder.

The defense rests without Trump’s testimony — here’s what comes next

By Katherine Doyle

Over just a few hours in court, Donald Trump’s legal team presented its entire case in the New York hush money trial: Don’t believe Michael Cohen.

After it presented two witnesses, one of them a staff member tasked with explaining a spreadsheet, the defense formally rested its case Tuesday.

The defense’s key witness, Robert Costello, returned to the stand Tuesday morning and quickly came under fire for how he had characterized his relationship with Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, as prosecutors again and again used his own words against him.

Prosecutor Susan Hoffinger twisted the knife, referring to Costello’s comments Monday that an email spoke for itself as she presented him with emails and records disputing his characterizations.

Moments later, the defense rested its case.

Trump won’t testify: Over 16 days of testimony, 22 witnesses took the stand. But despite having said several times he wanted to be among them, Trump ultimately did not testify in his own defense.

Trump has spoken at least once a day outside the courtroom to cameras set up by the media. At the beginning of the trial, he suggested that he was going to testify, but then his tone shifted. It was long viewed as unlikely by legal experts, who noted that Trump would be exposing himself to an intense cross-examination if he took the stand.

What’s next? The two sides spent the afternoon hashing out jury instructions with the judge in what is known as a jury conference.

Jurors will not return until next Tuesday, when closing arguments in the case will begin. That lent Judge Juan Merchan’s preliminary instructions to the jurors — not to read or listen to any transcripts of or commentary on the trial — added significance.

Merchan expects summations to last into next Wednesday, followed by instructions to the jury.

Read more from Day 20 of the Trump trial →

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com