Republicans win the House of Representatives majority. What changes will Californians see?

Even with the slimmest of majorities, the Republican takeover of the House will mean plenty of discussion and debate about radically different approaches to immigration, government spending and taxes.

But it’s likely to be almost all talk.

Republicans have captured the needed 218 seats to claim a majority in last Tuesday’s election. The Associated Press projected the majority Wednesday night after declaring Rep. Mike Garcia, R-California, the winner in a close race. Former President Donald Trump Tuesday had said Kevin Kiley, the Republican vying for the 3rd congressional district seat, had put the Republicans over the top, but AP has not yet called that race.

With the GOP in charge, abortion policy is unlikely to change in Democratic-run California anytime soon. Stricter policies on immigration also will be difficult. And any push to keep lower federal income tax rates going past their 2025 expiration is probably going nowhere for a while.

Having even a tiny minority is important in the House, thanks to rules that provide the majority party enormous control over the agenda. But the GOP’s big initiatives will still need President Joe Biden’s signature and, in most cases, 60 votes in a Senate where there will be at most 50 Republicans.

“Republicans definitely have a heavy lift if they are hoping to radically alter the trajectory of the federal government while Biden is still in the White House,” said Philip Wallach, senior fellow at Washington’s American Enterprise Institute, a center-right research group..

Chances are the most significant changes Californians will notice next year when the House convenes in January will involve rhetoric and investigations.

That said, the California congressional delegation next year will remain overwhelmingly Democratic, so its ability to influence policy will be severely limited.

“It means the largest state in the country may have some reduced power,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute.

Republicans vs. Biden

Every president since Ronald Reagan has at some point faced at least one chamber of Congress run by the opposing party.

It’s led to stalemates with sometimes brutal consequences. Much of the government shut down in 2013 for 16 days during the Obama administration. Spending and policy disputes during the Trump administration in 2018-19 closed much of the government for 35 days.

But Republicans were ultimately thwarted in 2013, and were unable to pass much of their tough immigration agenda in 2019.

One big difference with Republicans in charge next year will involve investigations, said Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, who is expected to become speaker.

Look for congressional probes into presidential son Hunter Biden’s finances as well as deep looks into how the Biden administration runs the government. There’s talk of trying to impeach Cabinet officials, notably Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

One of the first targets will be the FBI and the Justice Department. Earlier this month, Judiciary Committee Republican staff released a 1,050-page report titled “FBI Whistleblowers: What their disclosures indicate about the politicization of the FBI and Justice Department.” Government policy during the Covid pandemic, including the job done by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, could also become the subject of hearings.

Battle over immigration

Immigration, spending and taxes are the are the priorities of the party’s base.

Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, could become chairman of the House’s immigration subcommittee. McCarthy told CNN this week,“The first thing you’ll see is a bill to control the border first.”

McClintock has made several visits to the U.S.-Mexico border. In September, he said he found few immigration laws being enforced.

“Without enforcing our immigration laws, we effectively have no borders,” he said at the time. ”And if we have no borders, we cease to be a nation and instead become a vast international territory between Canada and Mexico.

“That is now happening with astonishing speed, and we are fast running out of time to avoid joining the long list of civilizations that fell because they could not or would not secure their borders.”

The congressman will not look ahead at the moment. “He intends to continue his work on budget reform, forest management and immigration. In what capacity will be decided after the election,” said Jennifer Cressy, McClintock’s spokeswoman.

Drastic spending cuts?

The Republican Study Committee, which represents a large bloc of House conservatives, has a blueprint for spending.

It includes “the most pro-life budget every introduced,” full funding to build a U.S.-Mexico border wall, and a gradual increase for the Social Security retirement age as well as lower benefits for higher-income earners. The group is trying to improve Social Security’s long-term solvency.

“Reckless spending has failed, and conservatives in Congress should take the opportunity to course correct, rein in spending and save America from a dire fiscal future,” said Rep. Jim Banks, R-Indiana, head of the study group, who is being pushed by Trump supporters to join the GOP leadership.

Most of these ideas will be considered for funding by the House Appropriations Committee, where California’s clout is likely to diminish.

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, is in line to head the defense subcommittee. Other state members are currently Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Mike Garcia, R-San Juan Capistrano.

Enacting big cuts, though, is going to be tough. “GOP leaders are right now talking a big game about cutting spending,” Wallach said, “but it’s also not entirely clear whether Republicans are really united around any particular set of cuts.

“It’s much easier to say ‘We want to stop inflation by reducing deficits’ than it is to say ‘We want to reduce food stamps by so much, or we want to raise the Social Security retirement age.’’’

Lower taxes?

Republicans have made it clear they’ll try to extend the Trump-era tax cuts past their expiration dates. Most of the changes aimed at lowering taxes for single and family taxpayers expire in 2025.

Tax policy has long been a partisan flashpoint. Not a single Democrat voted for the overhaul of the tax code in 2017, and they’ve been trying ever since, largely without success, to add more taxes on the wealthy.

In the Trump tax cut, rates were lowered, the standard deduction was increased significantly and several tax breaks were curbed. Gone until 2025 was the deduction for state and local taxes of more than $10,000, a particularly painful change in high-tax California.

In Sacramento County, average state and local taxes per itemized taxpayer in 2018 totaled $14,338, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation in Washington. Other local areas were also hurt, as El Dorado County’s average was $19,344. Placer County’s was $19,246. Yolo County’s was $17,890.

The House Ways and Means Committee would tackle tax cuts first. “Permanent middle-class tax cuts will allow Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money,” committee Republicans said Friday in a paper describing their economic plans.

In the current Congress, California has five Democrats and no Republicans on the committee.

Any of these proposals would need not only Senate approval, but also the signature of Biden. He’s been adamant that he opposes the Republican plans for immigration, taxes and spending.

Last month, after McCarthy unveiled a “commitment to America” with broad outlines of his plans, the White House issued a detailed look at what it said would be a fiscal disaster if GOP plans were adopted.