A new Republican poll shows who's ahead in Arizona's Senate race. It's not Kari Lake
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Polling from national Republicans shows Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race over potential GOP nominee Kari Lake, with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema far behind both.
During the Tuesday presentation to fellow Republicans, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Sinema, I-Ariz., is pulling votes from the GOP, not from Democrats, according to Punchbowl News, which first reported the discussion.
During the meeting, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Lake is going to win the party’s nomination and urged them to get behind Lake’s campaign, Punchbowl reported.
A Sinema spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Lake’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Hannah Goss, a spokesperson for Gallego’s campaign, embraced the poll’s top-line results.
“Even Senate Republicans’ own poll agrees: Ruben Gallego is best positioned to win this race, go to the U.S. Senate, and continue his work of delivering for Arizonans by cutting costs, protecting our water future, and taking care of our veterans,” she said in a written statement.
The poll, conducted last week, showed Gallego, D-Ariz., with 41% support, Lake at 37% and Sinema with 17%.
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The NRSC’s communications director cited the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error, and said in a statement the poll shows “the race is a statistical tie.”
Even with the poll’s uncertainties, Sinema would seem a distant third at the moment.
The NRSC’s poll seems consistent with other polling in a race still taking shape.
For one, Sinema hasn’t officially said whether she plans to seek a second six-year term. Her campaign spending reports suggest she has been doing so throughout the year.
Other polls generally have shown Gallego narrowly leading or tied, but the GOP’s field has been clouded throughout the year.
Lake only entered the race on Oct. 10, though she hinted at doing so for months.
Other Republicans have received passing polling attention, such as Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who entered the race in April, and former Senate nominee Blake Masters, who considered another Senate run but wound up running for the U.S. House of Representatives instead.
Lake is widely viewed as the favorite to win the GOP nomination, helped in part by a Day One endorsement from former President Donald Trump and by her own broad popularity with Republicans.
But Lake is also seen as beatable in a general election after her gubernatorial defeat in 2022 and the wariness of her chances among national Republicans.
Morning Consult, a pollster not affiliated with any of the campaigns or parties, released new surveys Tuesday examining approval ratings for senators across the country.
Its poll found that Sinema’s net approval rating picked up since she left the Democratic Party in December to become an independent. Her standing with Democrats fell since then, but views of her improved among independents and Republicans.
Overall, 42% of respondents approve of Sinema’s performance, while 44% disapprove. It makes her one of the least popular incumbent senators up for reelection next year.
Approval ratings don’t necessarily measure whether respondents intend to vote for someone.
Sinema’s campaign reportedly distributed a memo to potential donors showing a path to victory for her next year that relies on her winning heavily among Arizona’s independent voters and by peeling off more support from its Republicans than from her former party.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Senate polls: Who's leading between Sinema, Gallego and Lake?
