A Republican group spent $650,000 on Kevin McCarthy’s chosen successor. Did it work?

A Republican Super PAC spent more than $650,000 on Assemblyman Vince Fong’s congressional bid to succeed his former boss, retired Rep. Kevin McCarthy, in a deep-red California district.

The newly-formed Central Valley Values PAC, fueled by funding associated with McCarthy, spent $651,149 this year on ads and other material to boost Fong, R-Bakersfield, over a Republican challenger.

It’s not clear whether it worked in giving McCarthy’s chosen heir a clear path to win November’s election. The PAC — a political committee allowed to spend and raise money in unlimited amounts — had hoped to consolidate the left behind a Democratic opponent before the March 5 primary election.

The goal was for Fong, McCarthy’s endorsed successor, to end up with the presumably easier task of running against Democrat Marisa Wood in the heavily-Republican 20th Congressional District come November. The top two finishers in the primary moved on to the general election.

But boosting Wood didn’t work. Fong and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, a Republican, will advance from the primary in California’s 20th, the Associated Press projected last week.

With an estimated 98% of the votes counted as of Monday morning, Fong had 42.1% and Boudreaux had 24%. Wood had 21.3%.

Central Valley Values PAC paid a California consulting group that was founded by a McCarthy ally to produce mailers, digital advertisements and text messages to bolster Fong, 44, and attack Boudreaux, 56, and Wood, 63. Mailers blasting Wood were aimed at Democrats, seemingly to consolidate their vote.

Facing Wood, a Bakersfield school teacher who challenged and fell to McCarthy in November 2022, in the state’s reddest congressional district would have made it easier for Fong to win the general election.

“I think the takeaway is simple: No, it didn’t work at all,” said Alex Tavlian, Boudreaux’s campaign manager.

But the strategy might have consolidated Democrats the best it could. Republicans tend to have better turnout in California primaries compared to Democrats, which would be particularly pronounced in the 20th, where 47% of registered voters are Republican and 27% are Democrats.

Campaigns in the 20th were forced into a three-month blitz ahead of March unlike in other races because of the surprising retirement of McCarthy, who had held the seat since 2007 after taking over for his former boss. McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, retired at the end of December following his ousting as Speaker of the House, a role he long coveted and held for nine months.

McCarthy gave the nod to Fong, who also secured the endorsement of former President Donald Trump not long before the March 5 primary on Feb. 20. Trump again endorsed Fong on Sunday for the special election primary that is occurring Tuesday to succeed McCarthy within the next few months.

Tal Eslick, a consultant based in the 20th, said heavy campaigning — and having the money to do so — in the sprint to March was key. Fong and Boudreaux had far more campaign money to work with than Wood. Wood gathered the most votes by far between the two Democratic candidates, according to primary results released so far, and it’s possible Central Valley Values PAC’s spending helped her to do that.

“There’s just a crazy number of Republicans in this particular district, which is why I think the former President Trump endorsement is key. It’s the reason they’re so focused on immigration,” Eslick said. “But I don’t think Vince gets to 41% that quickly on accident, and I don’t think Wood gets to 22% that quickly as she did.”

Eslick, who has known Fong since they worked for Republican congressmen in the Central Valley, supported his congressional bid. The percentages of votes will change as more ballots are processed; California’s secretary of state will certify primary results on April 12.

The timing of McCarthy’s announced departure led to a scramble among successors with two days before California’s electoral filing deadline. Fong, who served as McCarthy’s district director for almost a decade, ultimately filed paperwork for the Assembly and Congress, which put him on the ballot for both roles and at the center of a legal challenge from California Secretary of State Shirley Weber.

Where did Central Valley Values money come from?

Central Valley Values PAC is a single-candidate Super PAC, meaning it is devoted solely to promoting Fong. It can raise and spend money in unlimited amounts, but can have no association or contact with Fong.

A spokesman for the Fong campaign, Ryan Gardiner, didn’t have a specific comment on the Central Valley Values PAC. He said no one in the campaign had contact with anyone involved in the independent expenditure effort.

Central Valley Values PAC had spent about $380,798 during the campaign to tout Fong, according to Federal Election Commission filings as of March 3. Another approximately $170,448 was spent against Boudreaux, and $99,902 was spent against Wood.

The money reported in January went to Swing Strategies, a group founded by Tom Ross, it’s CEO and president, who was a strategic advisor to McCarthy. Ross did not respond to an email for comment.

Nearly half of $500,000 reported by Central Valley Values PAC at the end of January came from the Majority Committee PAC, which is associated with McCarthy. Another $250,000 came from Conservatives for American Excellence, funded by different corporate executives.

Among the big donors to that group are Ken Griffin, a hedge fund billionaire who gave the group $3 million in January, and Warren Stephens, an investment banker who contributed $1 million that month.

The group has contributed to promoting or defeating Republicans in other states, generally trying to thwart GOP candidates who would be sympathetic to the House Freedom Caucus, a far-right congressional group whose members led the effort to oust McCarthy as Speaker of the House in October.

“Ken’s political participation has always been driven by his patriotism and his love of America,” said Zia Ahmed, Griffin’s spokesperson. “He supports solutions-oriented candidates who share his commitment to individual rights and freedom, economic policies that encourage prosperity and upward mobility, access to a high-quality education for all children, safety in our communities, and a strong national defense. We are facing serious issues as a country, and Ken believes we need effective leaders in Washington.”

What’s happening in the race to replace McCarthy?

Analysts had expected Fong to get one of the two spots in the general election. But the legal challenge by California’s chief elections officer could erase his congressional candidacy in November.

Before April 12, Weber hopes that a state appeals court will terminate Fong’s ability to run for Congress. The succession scramble and Fong’s decision to run for Congress after qualifying for the Assembly means he is on the ballot for both the 20th Congressional and 32nd Assembly District, which he currently represents.

Fong served as McCarthy’s district director for almost a decade before his election to the Assembly. Born in Bakersfield, Fong started his political career as an aide to former Republican Rep. Bill Thomas, McCarthy’s predecessor.

Boudreaux, who has been Tulare County Sheriff for over a decade, earned several key local endorsements. Currently president of the California State Sheriffs’ Association, Boudreaux worked in Tulare County law enforcement for almost his whole life, starting there as a cadet at 19. He lives in Springville.

California’s 20th takes bits of Bakersfield and Fresno in the San Joaquin Valley and grabs parts of Kern, Kings, Tulare and Fresno counties. There were nearly a dozen contenders on the March 5 ballot, though many stopped campaigning to endorse other candidates.

There is also a special election to finish the remainder of McCarthy’s abandoned term, which ends in January 2025. The primary is March 19; if a candidate secures the majority of votes then, they win outright. If not, the top two vote-getters advance to a May 21 runoff. Whoever wins will be sworn in nearly immediately.

Fong, Boudreaux and Wood are among the candidates in the special election. Weber’s challenge to Fong only applies to the full-term election.

What happened for McCarthy’s succession?

The three-month campaign blitz and legal challenge to Fong’s candidacy comes from the unique circumstances of McCarthy’s resignation and a complicated game of succession in December.

McCarthy, 59, was first elected to Congress to succeed his former boss, Thomas, in 2006. After McCarthy was ousted by his peers as House speaker in October, he was publicly coy on his political future. He announced his retirement on Dec. 6 — two days before California’s electoral filing deadline — setting off a scramble among potential candidates who pondered whether they should seek to replace him.

Since McCarthy, the incumbent, was not running, the filing deadline for California’s 20th was extended until Dec. 13. Fong originally declined to run to succeed his former boss before the Dec. 8 deadline to qualify for his Assembly race, which he did.

State Sen. Shannon Grove, R-Bakersfield, who will be termed out of the Legislature come next election cycle in 2026, appeared McCarthy’s likely successor. But she announced she would not run a few days later. Following her announcement, Fong swiftly changed his mind, announced his bid for Congress before the deadline and gathered McCarthy’s endorsement.

Weber said in December that, under elections code, Fong could not withdraw from the Assembly race after he qualified for it and could not be on the ballot for two competing offices. She said she would bar him from running in the 20th.

However a Sacramento Superior Court judge granted Fong’s request to be on the ballot for the Assembly and Congress on Dec. 28. Up against a deadline, Weber included Fong’s name on the certified list of candidates for both races. A day later, she vowed to appeal the decision.

At the end of January, Weber asked an appeals court to erase Judge Shelleyanne W. L. Chang’s ruling and disqualify Fong as a congressional candidate by April 12. If the court grants her request, she would bar him from the Nov. 5 ballot.

Fong was uncontested in the 32nd Assembly District’s primary.