Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories

The overnight election results have been every bit as disappointing for the Conservatives as they might have feared.

The party is so far losing one in two of the seats they have been trying to defend. When all the results are in, it is at risk of suffering the catastrophic 500 losses of council seats that some analysts had predicted.

The party’s vote fell by 32.1 points in Blackpool South, making it the party’s third worst ever performance in a parliamentary by-election. With 16.9 per cent of the vote, its best performance yet, Reform appears to have done much of the damage.

Moreover, in the local elections the Conservative vote fell most heavily in those wards where Reform fielded a candidate. The only silver lining for Tory HQ was that Reform only contested one in six of the wards where there was an election on Thursday. A full slate would have been even more devastating.

Meanwhile, some of the evidence underneath the bonnet of the headlines will particularly worry the party.

First, detailed ward by ward results collected by the BBC suggest that on average support for the party is down on last year’s local elections. That slippage is consistent with the message of the opinion polls that, rather than closing the gap on Labour, the party has actually lost ground over the last twelve months.

Second, the fall in Conservative support is proving to be highest in the party’s heartlands. The better the Conservatives did locally in 2021, that is, when most of the seats being contested on Thursday were last fought, the greater the fall in their support now.

This pattern fits with the evidence of recent MRP polling, which suggested the Conservatives could win even fewer seats in the general election than the 165 to which they fell in 1997.

Third, Labour advanced most strongly by squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories were trying to fend off a Labour challenge.

If these patterns persist, it could cost the party dearly in the general election.

Downing St will be hoping for better news today, not least in Tees Valley where polls have suggested Ben Houchen could hang on to the post of Mayor. But on the evidence so far, possible isolated successes should not distract from the broader message of the local ballot boxes – the Conservative party is still in a very deep electoral hole.