Reed Sheppard is No. 1 in one NBA mock draft. How much money is riding on his decision?

Reed Sheppard: No. 1 NBA draft pick?

That was the name at the top of The Ringer’s latest mock draft Monday, a projection that obviously sent ripples across the Kentucky basketball fan base on the eve of postseason play.

Sheppard’s NBA draft stock has been rising since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. When the former North Laurel High School star came to Lexington last summer, he was fully expected to be an instant fan favorite. The 6-foot-3 guard is the son of two former UK basketball stars — Jeff Sheppard and Stacey Reed Sheppard — and one of the few Kentucky natives that has ended up with the Wildcats as a scholarship player during John Calipari’s tenure as head coach. So it was natural to expect a major local following for the UK freshman, but no one anticipated the type of national attention he’s been receiving over the past few months.

The NBA draft projections have been especially surprising.

Sheppard was not viewed as a one-and-done player before the college basketball season began. He rocketed into the first round and then the draft’s lottery range fairly quickly, and just last week ESPN moved him to No. 5 overall on its board, a rise of seven spots from the website’s previous ranking of NBA prospects.

That was surprising enough, especially relative to the preseason expectations. Sheppard’s name at No. 1 on a reputable mock draft site is a shock.

Even as his projected draft spot soared earlier in the season, there was plenty of (warranted) optimism in UK fan circles that Sheppard would stay in Lexington for at least one more year, with his loyalty to the Wildcats’ program and the name, image and likeness possibilities that would accompany a return seen as two key factors that could bring him back, even if he was a legitimate first-round pick.

At the range in which Sheppard is now being projected, that hope might stretch the bounds of optimism.

The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA draft is slated to earn $10,504,800 in his first season in the league, according to the rookie salary scale. But it is standard practice for top picks to earn 120% of the figure stated in the scale — the maximum that teams are allowed to pay under the system — and that would put the first-year salary for this year’s top pick around $12.6 million. The three-year total for the top selection in this year’s draft would be more than $39 million, using the expected 120% option.

The player who goes with the No. 5 pick in this year’s draft — the spot in which Sheppard landed on ESPN’s latest list — would receive more than $8.2 million in rookie salary and about $26 million over his first three seasons in the league.

That’s, obviously, a lot of money.

The NIL earnings of UK athletes are not public. And while the dollar amounts privately linked to Sheppard this season have been impressive — and would almost certainly grow, perhaps considerably, in a second year with the Wildcats — no figure that he could realistically earn in college would come close to his salary as an NBA rookie drafted in the range of those current projections.

Of course, he’d also likely sign major endorsement deals as an NBA rookie to supplement his professional salary, and leaving school after this season would allow him to start the clock one year earlier on his path toward a second contract, which would project to be substantially more lucrative than his initial deal in the league.

The NBA teams with the worst records right now — and, thus, the best chances to get the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft — are Detroit, Washington, San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland. (The Ringer’s mock draft had the Spurs picking Sheppard at No. 1, which would pair him with last year’s top pick: rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama.)

Even if Sheppard fell a little further than the top five, he would be in line for a big payday.

The No. 10 pick in this year’s draft would receive about $5.5 million as a rookie and more than $17 million over his first three seasons. The last pick in the lottery, No. 14, would get about $14 million over his first three years in the league, with a rookie salary of nearly $4.5 million, assuming the 120% option.

The way things have been trending this season, it appears unlikely Sheppard would fall beyond that range in the draft. In addition to The Ringer and ESPN, the most recent mock drafts from CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, NBA.com and SB Nation all have him in the top 10, and his stock has only been rising in recent weeks.

Sheppard was named the SEC Freshman of the Year on Monday — just two days after scoring 27 points and making 7 of 10 3-pointers in a win at No. 4 Tennessee — and Kentucky has positioned itself well going into the postseason. The Cats are now widely projected as a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and have emerged as one of the betting favorites to win the national championship.

A run through March Madness would probably only bolster Sheppard’s stock even further.

For his part, the 19-year-old from London says that all he’s concerned about is the upcoming tournaments. Asked about NBA draft projections following UK’s final home game of the season last week, Sheppard didn’t bite.

“I haven’t even looked at any of that,” he said.

Sheppard added that his full concentration was on the current Kentucky team and doing whatever he could to help the Wildcats advance in the postseason.

After that, he’ll have a decision to make, however. And for a player who was always expected to play multiple seasons for his home-state school, it’s not likely to be an easy one.

Next game

Kentucky vs. Texas A&M or Mississippi

What: SEC Tournament quarterfinals

When: 7 p.m. Friday

Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

TV: SEC Network

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

SEC Tournament

At Nashville, Tenn.

All times EDT

WEDNESDAY

7 p.m.: No. 12 seed Arkansas (15-16) vs. No. 13 Vanderbilt (9-22), (SEC Network)

About 9:30 p.m.: No. 11 Georgia (16-15) vs. No. 14 Missouri (8-23), (SEC Network)

THURSDAY

1 p.m.: No. 8 LSU (17-14) vs. No. 9 Mississippi State (19-12), (SEC Network)

About 3:30 p.m.: No. 5 South Carolina (25-6) vs. Arkansas-Vanderbilt winner, (SEC Network)

7 p.m.: No. 7 Texas A&M (18-13) vs. No. 10 Mississippi (20-11), (SEC Network)

About 9:30 p.m.: No. 6 Florida (21-10) vs. Georgia-Missouri winner, (SEC Network)

FRIDAY

1 p.m.: No. 1 Tennessee (24-7) vs. LSU-Mississippi State winner, (ESPN)

About 3:30 p.m.: No. 4 Auburn (24-7) vs. South Carolina/Arkansas/Vanderbilt winner (ESPN)

7 p.m.: No. 2 Kentucky (23-8) vs. Texas A&M-Mississippi winner, (SEC Network)

About 9:30 p.m.: No. 3 Alabama (21-10) vs. Florida/Georgia/Missouri winner, (SEC Network)

SATURDAY

1 p.m.: Semifinal 1 (ESPN)

About 3:30 p.m.: Semifinal 2 (ESPN)

SUNDAY

1 p.m.: Championship game (ESPN)

Reed Sheppard named SEC Freshman of the Year. Reeves, Dillingham and Wagner honored, too.

Kentucky soars in new college basketball rankings. NCAA Tournament outlook getting clear.

Top recruit Karter Knox picked UK basketball as his college destination. He explains why.

Postseason play is here for UK basketball, and John Calipari likes his team’s physicality

Hooked on a feeling: Why Kentucky will win the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament

History says Kentucky needs to play well in SEC tourney to make a deep NCAA Tournament run

Kentucky pulled off its biggest win of the season. And the Cats celebrated like ‘family.’

Here’s the 2024 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament schedule

How UK’s Jeff Sheppard and Stacey Reed got together. From the Herald-Leader archives.