Record-breaking heat wave cooks Europe

UPDATE: July 1, 2019, 1:20 p.m. EDT France smashed its all-time temperature record. On June 28, France's meteorological agency, Meteo France, announced a new record high temperature of 114.6 degrees Fahrenheit (45.9 Celsius) in the baking nation, set in the southeast part of the country. Before Friday, the nation's all-time record was 111 degrees.

The heat has arrived.

As predicted, a potent heat wave settled over Europe this week, bringing abnormally high June temperatures to vast swathes of France, Spain, Germany and beyond — home to hundreds of millions. Already, the highest ever recorded June temperatures have toppled in Germany, France, and Poland, reaching into the triple digits on Wednesday. 

Radzyń, Poland hit nearly 101 degrees Fahrenheit, a region outside of Berlin reached 101.5 degrees, and the average max June temperature in France hit its highest point ever, at nearly 95 degrees. On Thursday, France peaked at over 107 degrees. And there's more heat to come. 

Over the last century, Europe has increasingly experienced heat waves, and since 1500 AD, the region's five hottest summers have occurred in 2018, 2016, 2010, 2003, and 2002. Expectedly, temperature records will continue to break as Earth's overall average temperatures continue their relentless, accelerated rise. 

"Heat records do of course happen much more frequently due to global heating," said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "That is entirely as expected, and it will continue as long as we heat the planet by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere."

"Global temperatures are increasing due to climate change and this means that Europe can expect more record-breaking heatwaves in future," agreed Len Shaffrey, a climate scientist at the University of Reading, in the UK. 

Shaffrey noted that boosted global temperatures have at least doubled the probability of heat extremes in Europe, similar to last summer's scorching events. 

Atmospheric emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide — Earth's most important greenhouse gas — are now at their highest levels in at least 800,000 years, and the rate of increase is unprecedented in both the historic and geologic record. 

Europe's boosted temperatures will continue through the weekend, threatening to break all-time records, too. Schools in areas around Paris announced closures, in anticipation of the heat. 

Though, it's not just boosted overall temperatures that have contributed to Europe's heat waves. Winds in the high atmosphere (the jet stream) that move in giant waves around the planet, called Rossby Waves, have changed, explained Rahmstorf. Specifically, these major atmospheric flows have been slowing down and growing weirder and more curvy. This leaves persistent weather patterns — like heat — stalled over big regions, like Europe. 

Image: noaa

Atmospheric scientists suspect that amplified warming in the Arctic — which is on grand display this year — is largely responsible for slowing down these powerful atmospheric winds. With less of a temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes, wind patterns may change and grow weaker, particularly in the summer, noted Rahmstorf. 

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Heat waves — which are the deadliest type of extreme weather event — killed an estimated 70,000 Europeans in 2003. These events, like increased wildfires, drought, and pummeling deluges, are some of the most well-predicted consequences of a relentlessly warming climate. And their increase in frequency are repeatedly proving climate scientists correct — to their dismay.   

"I do not feel any satisfaction because of the predictions of climate science coming true," said Rahmstorf. "Rather, I feel increasingly worried for my two children's future."

UPDATE: June 27, 2019, 4:34 p.m. EDT This story was updated to reflect new temperature readings in France, which hit over 107 degrees Fahrenheit on June 27, 2019.

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