The real story behind Madison Cawthorn switching Congressional districts

Nov. 16—Congressman Madison Cawthorn made national news last week by announcing he would jump ship and run in a different district next year — and by the luck of the draw, his first public debut since the political bombshell happened to be right here in Haywood County.

Cawthorn had been booked as the keynote speaker for the Haywood GOPs Saturday night Fall Fling weeks ago, but his appearance took on new import at the 11th hour. Anticipation was rampant over what Cawthorn would tell the crowd about giving up his home seat in WNC and instead running for Congress in an adjacent district to the east.

"I understand it is an unconventional move. It's not something most people would do. I had a very safe re-election in this seat," Cawthorn said, addressing the issue about half-way through his 10-minute speech. "But I genuinely believe we live in dire times, and it calls for unconventional measures to save this nation."

Indeed, Cawthorn has been nothing if not unconventional his first year in Washington as the youngest member of Congress. He's branded himself as an anti-establishment Republican, unabashedly aligned with the Trump-wing of the party.

Still, Cawthorn's move seemed puzzling. Why give up a safe run as an incumbent in your own mountain district to run in a newly created district that reaches to the outskirts of Charlotte?

But Cawthorn had clearly done the math. Newly drawn lines for North Carolina's Congressional districts shuffled the deck chairs for Cawthorn's home territory — renaming it from District 11 to District 14. It still leans Republican, but slightly less so now.

The new lines for District 14 rope in Watauga County — home to liberal-leaning Boone and Appalachian State University — while jettisoning the conservative strongholds of McDowell, Rutherford and Polk.

In Cawthorn's old District 11, 56% of voters went for Trump in 2020. But in the newly drawn District 14, Trump support was 53.8%. Meanwhile, the newly drawn District 13 that Cawthorn is switching to favored Trump by 60%.

"Both are safe districts, but the 13th is safer," said Chris Cooper, a political analyst and director of WCU's Public Policy Institute.

That alone doesn't explain Cawthorn's jump, however.

"This is where the normal calculus doesn't apply," Cooper said. "Madison Cawthorn's gotten to wherever he's gotten by challenging norms and drawing attention."

Switching to a district that touches a corner of Mecklenburg County also gives Cawthorn a higher profile and visibility.

"It's my opinion he wants to get down closer to the Charlotte media market and set himself up for a statewide run in the future," said former N.C. Sen. Jim Davis, who represented the seven western counties of WNC for a decade.

Cawthorn's stance

Speculation aside, Cawthorn released a carefully crafted video statement Thursday explaining his rationale for switching districts. He indicated he isn't doing it for his own electability or political goals, but as a martyr to advance conservative leadership.

"This move is not an abandonment — in fact quite the opposite. It is a move to take more ground for constitutional conservatism," Cawthorn said in the video.

While District 13 is squarely red with almost no chance of a Democrat taking it, Cawthorn didn't want just any Republican to claim it.

"I am afraid that another establishment go-along-to-get-along Republican would prevail there," Cawthorn said.

It appeared to be a direct jab at Republican N.C. Speaker of the House Tim Moore, who was expected to announce a Congressional run for the new District 13. Now, with Cawthorn beating Moore to the punch, Moore won't be running after all.

"I think he likes to poke at the establishment Republicans," Cooper said.

Indeed, it's not out of character for Cawthorn. He's publicly insulted U.S. Sen. Tom Tillis — a state party bigwig and former speaker of the N.C. House — by calling him a RINO, Republican in Name Only.

During his speech at the Haywood GOP Fall Fling, Saturday, Cawthorn only briefly touched on his decision to jump districts. His comments largely mirrored his previous video statement, saying the seat for District 13 would have been snatched up by a "career politician" Republican if he hadn't stepped in.

"If we continue to send the same cookie-cutter politicians to Washington, D.C, we are going to lose our nation," Cawthorn said.

Cawthorn also said it wasn't that much of a leap geographically to switch districts. While his home in Henderson County technically lies in District 14, it's right on the edge. So he's closer to the seven counties that comprise District 13 than he is to most of the counties in sprawling District 14.

Of the 17 WNC counties he now represents, three were carved out and made part of the new District 13.

"I had folks in those three counties approach me and say, 'Madison, you know, we need you to come and represent us.' And I said 'Well no, more of my counties are over here, so I think I'm going to stay with them,'" Cawthorn said of his initial reaction.

But Cawthorn ultimately concluded that District 13 needed saving from a "go-along-to-get-along" Republican, while District 14 was safe.

"I genuinely believe no matter who runs in this seat, it will have a patriot elected," Cawthorn told the Haywood crowd.

Wide open race

Opponents within Cawthorn's party had lined up to run against him in the GOP primary. So far, three had publicly announced, but with Cawthorn out of the picture, that dynamic is bound to change given the now wide-open race.

"The field will widen quickly," Cooper said. "The Democratic field is already huge, and the Republican field is going to expand."

In 2020, the district had the third largest candidate field of any Congressional seat in the nation. And with the newly drawn district lines making it more competitive, that's bound to be the case again.

The filing period for candidates officially opens Dec. 6, but announcements are likely to come sooner by candidates hoping to get out in front of the competition.

Geographically, the new District 14 will be a tougher one to conquer than the old District 11, however. With the inclusion of Watauga, it now reaches from Murphy to Boone — a 4.5-hour drive from one end to the other.

"The district is more idiosyncratic than most because of its sheer size," Cooper said, also noting that Boone isn't in Asheville's orbit as much as the rest of WNC.

Taking on Cawthorn

Republican opponents who threw their hat in the ring when Cawthorn was still in the equation claimed that he wasn't the right man to represent WNC.

"He got a little bit too extreme from my point of view," said Bruce O'Connell, one of the three Republican candidates who was running against Cawthorn. "I thought 'Oh my God, there's people who aren't going to support him the next time around.' I didn't want us to lose that seat. That's the worst thing that could happen."

O'Connell admitted it was an uphill battle to primary an incumbent Republican, even a controversial one like Cawthorn.

"The big difference now is when I go to meetings I won't be tarred and feathered and considered a traitor for running against someone in my own party," said O'Connell, who attended the Haywood GOP Fall Fling.

Fellow GOP primary candidate Wendy Nevarez also questioned Cawthorn's ability to win the general election, fearing he would be a turn off to moderates within the party, let alone the Holy Grail of independent voters.

"We are divided within our own party. That is the part Madison has failed to tap into. You can't disenfranchise half of your own party by being so extreme with rhetoric, and you definitely won't get the unaffiliated vote," Nevarez said.

Some of that rhetoric Cawthorn's known for made it into his speech at the Haywood GOP Fall Fling, like calling for retribution against China for "releasing the coronavirus."

"Whether it was mismanagement or on purpose or an act of war, my friends we should seize every single Chinese asset on American soil as a down payment," Cawthorn said.

O'Connell said now that Cawthorn's out, he expects more candidates to pile on, but he's still staying the course.

"The people I expect to jump in are going to be career politicians. Politicians got us into the mess we're in right now, and the worst thing we could do is send another politician to Washington," said O'Connell, a businessman who's the manager of Pisgah Inn.

Nevarez likewise said she's staying in the game.

"It wasn't about Madison. It's about serving the people of Western North Carolina," Nevarez said.

Rocking the boat

By jumping to a new district, Cawthorn could escape some of the baggage that he would have faced in his own district, where he's made headlines for being an instigator of the Capitol insurrection, for having a gun confiscated by Asheville airport security when boarding a plane or for showing up at local school board meetings to stump against masks.

But it likely wouldn't have cost him the primary.

"I don't know that the 14th baggage would have been his death knell," Cooper said.

Cawthorn was smoking his three primary opponents so far in the money race. As of the most recent campaign finance reporting cycle, two hadn't yet raised the $5,000 minimum threshold to report, while a third had put in $200,000 of his own money.

"Meanwhile Madison Cawthorn raised $2 million. The gap between them was just huge," Cooper said. "He seems to have an ability to print money."

Cawthorn has racked up plenty of political enemies by going against the mainstream of his own party. And his decision to jump districts continues that trend.

Cawthorn not only pulled an end-run around N.C. Speaker of the House Moore who was expected to run for the new 13th district, he threw a wrench in the state party's redistricting strategy. New Congressional district lines had been painstakingly drawn to create a territory just for Moore.

"Everything was lined up perfectly for Tim Moore to run," Cooper said.

Likewise, district lines had been sliced and diced to avoid Cawthorn and GOP Congresswoman Virginia Foxx from being double-bunked in the same district. Foxx's home in Watauga County had been tidily carved out of Cawthorn's district so each would have their own territory and not have to run against each other.

"They went to extremes to create this map," Cooper said.

With Cawthorn switching districts, that was now all for naught.