Get ready for a ‘Groundhog Day’ Senate election

Marylanders will be forgiven if they feel they’ve been dropped into the movie “Groundhog Day” between now and Election Day, Nov. 5.

That’s because the state’s marquee U.S. Senate race between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) and former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is unlikely to change much in the next 5 1/2 months. For the two candidates and their supporters, the assignment will essentially remain the same for the duration of the campaign.

For Alsobrooks, it’s about trying to tie Hogan, a popular center-right Republican who has thrived in a Democratic state, to the most extreme elements of the national GOP, especially on issues like abortion rights — as control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance. For Hogan, it’s about persuading a critical number of Democrats and nonaffiliated voters that he’s an independent operator, and reminding them that his governing style won broad approval during his eight years in Annapolis.

The effectiveness of the candidates’ messaging will largely determine who winds up replacing outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in January.

Both candidates have leaned heavily into these narratives in the days since last week’s primary.

Alsobrooks’ first post-primary campaign video began with her speaking directly to the camera, discussing Hogan’s record and previous statements.

“Larry Hogan is no moderate and he has made it clear who he’s going to work with in the Senate,” she says as the video switches to a clip of Hogan telling an interviewer that he expects to caucus with Senate Republicans, adding, “I’m a lifelong Republican.”

Later in the 57-second spot, Alsobrooks asserts, “Time and again, Larry Hogan has refused to support federal abortion rights.” More clips of Hogan follow.

In the hours following the primary, Hogan issued a tribute to U.S. Rep. David Trone (D-6th), Alsobrooks’ vanquished foe in the Senate primary, then later issued a statement expressing his respect for Alsobrooks — who has the same job his father, Lawrence Hogan Sr. (R), held from 1978 to 1982 — along with the hope that they would be civil opponents.

When a political action committee affiliated with U.S. Senate Democrats excoriated Hogan for being endorsed by Kari Lake, Arizona’s leading MAGA Republican (she congratulated him on his GOP primary victory and said she looked forward to serving with him in the Senate), the former governor’s camp countered with news of the creation of a group called Democrats for Hogan, whose co-chair is Bobby Zirkin, a former state senator from Baltimore County.

Most strikingly, Hogan on Thursday told The New York Times that he now considers himself a “pro-choice” candidate on the issue of abortion. Hogan said he would vote to codify the now-discarded Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision if a bill came up in the Senate to do so, and he also suggested he would vote in favor of a ballot measure this fall to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, an issue that is expected to drive women and Democrats to the polls.

“I’ll continue to protect the rights of women to make their own reproductive choices just like I did as governor for eight years,” he told the Times. “I think Marylanders know and trust that when I give them my word, I’m going to keep it, and I’ve protected these rights before.”

Even for a newspaper known for understatement, the Times called Hogan’s disclosure “calculated.”

“Mr. Hogan’s decision to break with his party on abortion, coming less than 48 hours after he and Ms. Alsobrooks claimed their party’s respective nominations, appeared to be a calculated move to the left now that he is through the Republican primary,” the newspaper wrote.

Democrats and their allies were incredulous.

“Voters have eyes and ears and memories,” said Jessica Mackler, the president of EMILYs List, the national fundraising group that supports Democratic women candidates who favor abortion rights.

Through most of his political career, Hogan has described himself as personally pro-life, but said he considered abortion protections to be “settled law” in Maryland. But during his last year as governor, Hogan vetoed a measure to expand abortion access in the state (the legislature overrode it) and also withheld state funding to train non-physicians to perform abortions.

“When Larry Hogan had power, he used it to oppose abortion rights,” Mackler said. “Now he wants power again, to deliver a Senate majority to abortion-banning Republicans. Marylanders won’t be fooled.”

While Democrats during the primary debated whether Alsobrooks or Trone would be a stronger nominee against Hogan, several political professionals this week said Alsobrooks, as a woman, would be a far more effective messenger on reproductive health issues.

“Given that abortion is going to be front and center, it matters that a woman is running,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. “Instead of two men who can’t personalize the issue of reproductive rights, having Alsobrooks makes the case stronger for voters.”

Even with Democratic leaders emphasizing abortion during Hogan’s two campaigns for governor, the Republican was able to attract thousands of Democratic voters — taking advantage in 2014 of voter fatigue with his predecessor, Martin O’Malley (D), and in 2018 by painting his Democratic challenger, Ben Jealous, as a dangerous radical and a newcomer to the state.

It will be much harder make such a case against Alsobrooks, a more traditional politician who has years in local politics and substantial support from the state’s Democratic establishment. She should also provide excitement to key segments of the Democratic coalition as she strives to become the first Black woman elected statewide in Maryland, and just the third (or fourth, depending on how Election Day goes) Black woman elected to the Senate.

Del. Jheanelle K. Wilkins (D-Montgomery), chair of the Legislative Black Caucus. Photo by Bryan P. Sears.

Del. Jheanelle K. Wilkins (D-Montgomery), chair of the Legislative Black Caucus in Annapolis, said she and other Democrats will remind voters about Hogan’s record as governor, especially on abortion.

Wilkins said Alsobrooks surrogates will also share her history in support of abortion, public education, the rights of women and other topics that resonate with Democrats throughout the state.

“We are going to talk about her record of championing the issues that Marylanders care about,” Wilkins said. “In comparison to Hogan’s record, I know the voters of Maryland will support her. [The primary results] really showed that Maryland voters are savvy. They look past the platitudes and noise and really take a look at the issues. I think that we will be able to convey the issues very strongly come November.”

‘These are things, I think, that Democrats like’

During his 2018 reelection campaign, Hogan attracted public support from scores of past and present Democratic officeholders. Will he be able to duplicate that feat in 2024?

“I don’t know the answer to that,” Zirkin, the co-chair of the new Democrats for Hogan organization, said Friday. “That’s above my pay grade.”

In an interview and in a video announcing the formation of the group, Zirkin said he’s for Hogan in part because they have a strong personal relationship, but also because the former governor banned fracking, held the line on taxes and spending, worked for criminal justice reform, and is a vocal Trump critic.

“These are things, I think, that Democrats like,” Zirkin said.

He also acknowledged that it will be much tougher to peel Democratic voters away from Alsobrooks than from Jealous, but suggests there’s still a case to be made for Hogan, to bring a measure of sanity to a severely divided Congress.

“I have nothing bad to say about Angela,” Zirkin said. “I’ll never have anything bad to say about Angela. I like her and I respect her. I think the Republican Party is an unmitigated disaster and needs someone like Larry to cleanse it.”

Zirkin said he expects former Montgomery County state Sen. Rona Kramer, who served as secretary of the Department of Aging during the Hogan administration, to become a co-chair of Democrats for Hogan, and believes other ex-lawmakers will also sign on. But at least one prominent Democratic backer of Hogan in 2018, Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman, told Maryland Matters he’s supporting Alsobrooks, who he called “a solid candidate,” for Senate.

“Federal office is different from state office,” Ashman said. “To me a vote for Hogan is a vote for the Republican Party taking over the Senate, and I’m not going to be a part of that, even though I think very highly of him.”

Maryland Matters attempted to reach retired U.S. District Judge Alexander Williams Jr. for his views on the Senate race. Williams, one of Hogan’s favorite Democrats, was frequently tapped by Hogan for prominent positions in state service, including co-chairing a redistricting reform commission, which the former governor used to score political points. Williams, who was also Prince George’s County’s first Black state’s attorney — Alsobrooks later became the first Black woman to hold the job — and the third Black federal judge from Maryland, did not respond to requests for comment.

Ashman’s reluctance to support Hogan this time underscores some of the obstacles the former governor may face in stitching together his old winning coalition. Even Democrats who like Hogan know that control of the U.S. Senate is on a knife’s edge, with half a dozen or so contests this fall likely to decide which party seizes the majority. Maryland, which rarely sees competitive Senate general elections, is now part of that equation.

“The conventional wisdom is that the future majority in the Senate can come down to Maryland, which was unthinkable just nine or 10 months ago,” said former Gov. Parris Glendening (D). “And that conventional wisdom in this case has the added advantage of being true. The outcome here could make the difference. And that is stunning.”

What will sway undecided voters?

If there is one issue that might galvanize some Maryland Democrats to support Hogan, Zirkin believes it’s the military conflict in Gaza. He conceded that it was his top reason for supporting Hogan, a vocal supporter of Israel. Hogan as governor signed an executive order prohibiting the state from doing business with companies that are boycotting Israel — an edict that remains in place under current Gov. Wes Moore (D), a leading supporter of Alsobrooks in the Senate race.

Former state Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-Baltimore County). Photo by Bruce DePuyt.

Zirkin has blasted U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a prominent Alsobrooks supporter who has been publicly critical of U.S. support for the Israeli military given the level of destruction in Gaza.

“I don’t love watching the fact that Chris Van Hollen has been in the commercials and on the stage [for Alsobrooks],” he said. “It really concerns me, as a Jew.”

Howard Libit, executive director of the Baltimore Jewish Council, agreed that the candidates’ stances on Israel could be an important consideration for Jewish voters in the Senate election. But even with Hogan’s strong support for Israel, Libit said there are opportunities as well for Alsobrooks, whose positions are less well known.

“I think there’s an opportunity here for some of us in the Jewish community to talk to the county executive publicly and privately to more fully understand her views,” Libit said, then added: “I can’t say Israel is the only issue Jewish voters will look at.”

Yet for all the talk about Hogan picking off Democratic voters, he’ll need to unify Republicans around his candidacy after taking 63% in last week’s GOP primary against fringe candidates. The chair of the Maryland Republican Party, Nicole Beus Harris, and her husband, U.S. Rep. Andy Harris (R-1st), are more closely aligned with the Trump wing of the GOP and are not natural allies of Hogan. Yet the state GOP on Friday said electing Hogan to the Senate was the party’s top priority for this election cycle.

“One of the most popular Governors in the country, and in the history of Maryland, Larry Hogan gives us our best chance of electing a Republican Senator from Maryland in decades,” Beus Harris wrote in an email to supporters.

Hogan, however, skipped the state Republican convention in Hagerstown this weekend.

Democrats, meanwhile, insist that any residual wounds from the Alsobrooks-Trone primary are quickly healing.

“That’s already been done,” Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Aisha Braveboy (D), one of Trone’s main surrogates during the primary, said in an interview Thursday in Annapolis. “Everybody understands that we had a primary, and now we’ve got to focus on keeping the seat blue. The Democratic Party is fired up. We are all united behind our candidate.”

Braveboy acknowledged some people may need additional time to recover from the primary.

“It’s OK to feel disappointed, but they can’t let those feelings impact how they behave in the future,” she said. “There’s a lot at stake here. Our very democracy is at stake, so we have to look at the bigger picture.”

The money chase

Meanwhile, beyond the candidates themselves, several interest groups and political action committees are expected to play in Maryland this fall. Both Republican and Democratic Senate campaign committees are likely to send money and manpower to the state.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, has already invested heavily in two congressional elections in Maryland over the past two election cycles through its super PAC, the United Democracy Group. Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for the United Democracy Group, did not respond to an email Friday inquiring whether the political action committee might be inclined to take sides in the Senate general election and run campaign ads here.

EMILY’s List, the organization boosting Democratic women who support abortion rights, spent more than $2 million through its PAC to bolster Alsobrooks in the primary. And while the group’s leaders haven’t completely committed to doing so again, it seems likely that they will.

The very first candidate EMILY’s List ever supported, in 1986, was former Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D), and the group no doubt will once again get behind the candidate bidding to become the state’s second woman senator.

“We got into this campaign with Angela on day two [after she announced her candidacy] because we knew from the very beginning that this was the kind of race that EMILYs List was built for,” said Mackler, the group’s president.

At the same time, the candidates themselves will be hustling to raise money. Eberly, the St. Mary’s professor, said Hogan and Alsobrooks may take time away from the hustings and the airwaves to ensure that they have the resources for advertising blitzes closer to Election Day.

“If I were either of these candidates, I would be more focused on using the summer to raise money so that I have that money to spend come the fall,” Eberly said.

– William J. Ford and Bruce DePuyt contributed to this report.

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