Rainy season starts now. What does this wet period hold for SWFL?
Meteorologists and weather experts aren't quite sure how rains this summer will pan out for south Florida as factors like La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures will be in play between now and mid-October.
Most forecasts are calling for average to above-average rainfall for this part of the state over the next five months, but some call for drier conditions this year.
"May 15 demarcates the first day of what we consider to be the rainy season," said Shawn Bhatti, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. "That can deviate from season to season but effectively temperatures reach a certain threshold, and thunderstorms are triggered. And that becomes frequent with higher temperatures and higher humidity levels."
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be active this year, and that could bring more localized rain to areas directly impacted by a large storm. At the same time, La Nina tends to bring slightly drier conditions to most of the Southeastern United States.
The only thing we know for sure is that it will rain between now and late fall, when this region gets 60 to 70% of its annual rainfall.
The National Weather Service, or NWS, issued its summer forecast earlier this month, saying there is little confidence in the predictions as there are various weather factors in play this year.
"Rainfall during previous La Niña rainy seasons have ranged from above normal to below normal, leading to a weak correlation with wet season precipitation patterns," an NWS May 10 forecast reads. "A consensus of long-range models is indicating similar conditions to the official outlook indicated above. Adding to the lower confidence is the fact that wet season precipitation outlooks can be strongly influenced by any tropical systems affecting Florida."
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, the rainy season last between May 15 and Oct. 15., although some agencies use June 1 through October as the goal posts for the season.
Rainfall will vary across the state
"The south Florida wet season is characterized by consistently high moisture levels (almost daily surface dewpoints in the 70s) and coupled with high temperatures support near-daily development of showers and thunderstorms over the Florida peninsula and adjacent waters," this year's NWS summer prediction reads. "The exact location of the daily rainfall depends on interactions between the larger scale wind flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and smaller-scale wind flows such as sea breezes and lake breezes."
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La Nina tends to bring drier summers to areas like the Southeast, but meteorologists say extreme south Florida doesn't often see that dry spell.
But the rainy season will start off on a dry note, according to NWS forecasts.
"I can say with a high degree of confidence that the start of the wet season will be a little drier than normal because of this heat wave we've had," Bhatti said. "And we've been very dry, and we'll be dry the rest of this week."
There is a slight chance of rain Wednesday through Thursday night, but Bhatti said the rain would be sparse and scattered.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Summer rainy season expected to start off dry, pick up in later months
