Queen's Club betting: Latest odds, tournament preview and suggested betting tips
The grass court season got under way last week with events in Stuttgart and s-Hertogenbosch but this week should give us the best idea of who might be contending in a few weeks’ time at Wimbledon as the pair of ATP 500 events take place at Queens Club and in Halle, Germany.
Success in West Kensington has generally been a good indicator for where the smart money lies five miles to the south in July as the champion at Queens has made at least the fourth round at Wimbledon in each of the last 15 years, while at least one of the finalists here has gone on to make the semis at SW19 in 14 of the last 18 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that Roger Federer has never played at Queens.
Andy Murray starts as the overwhelming favourite to add a record sixth title here (he’s currently the only player with five) and given his record on grass since the start of 2015 is a superb W24-L1 it’s hard to argue with that. However, a field stacked with talent including half of the world’s top 14 even after Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, as well as several dangerous big hitters such as Nick Kyrgios and John Isner, mean it’s unlikely he’ll have things all his own way.
The Draw – Quarter One
Murray starts with a clash against fellow Brit Aljaz Bedene, who has enjoyed an excellent couple of months but is more at home on clay and shouldn’t pose the World No.1 too many problems. A likely second round clash with former Queens champion Sam Querrey is a different challenge however. The big serving American is having a decent year after a few wins on clay and a title on hard courts in Acapulco in March where he beat four top-tenners including Nadal in the final. Murray has won seven of their eight previous meetings, including at this year’s Australian Open, but Querrey is a streaky player who can catch fire just long enough to cause a shock, as he proved when beating Djokovic at Wimbledon 12 months ago.
Life doesn’t get any easier for Murray after that as his quarter-final opponent is seeded to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, with Gilles Muller another potential option. Muller won the title at s-Hertogenbosch last week and that was the third time he’s reached the final of a grass court ATP tournament. He also won the opening set here against Murray in a quarter-final in 2015 before losing a second set tie-break and then the match 2-1.
Tsonga has already won three titles in 2017 and while he’s never won a tour title on grass he’s come close. Much like Muller he led Murray by a set here back in the 2011 final, and the second set also went to a tie-break before he came up just short. Since 2009 Murray leads their head-to-head by 12 wins to one but if he is to reverse that trend this looks the likeliest surface. He also led by a set when they met here in the 2013 semis and at Wimbledon last year they went to five sets in the quarter-finals.
Quarter Two
There’s no shortage of power in this section, with Marin Cilic meeting John Isner in round one and the winner likely to face another big-hitting American in Steve Johnson. Cilic was going superbly at Roland Garros until Stan Wawrinka dismantled him in the quarters but his form is good and he’s also had a few matches on grass already after playing s-Hertogenbosch last week. Add in the fact he’s a former champion here (2012) and also led Murray by a set in the 2013 final (a recurring theme), plus that he’s reached the quarters at Wimbledon in each of the last three years where he took both Federer and Djokovic to a fifth set in defeat, and we certainly expect him to be ready for this week.
Nevertheless, a match against Isner will surely come down to a couple of key points. The ace machine has two Tour titles on grass and in his visits here in the past two years his serve was broken just once in 12 sets while his exits at Wimbledon in 2016 to Tsonga and Cilic in 2015 were 19-17 and 12-10 in the fifth sets respectively. This is the first round nobody wanted. Johnson, in round two, looks a more straightforward affair but the American also has a Tour grass title to his name after winning Nottingham last year.
The happiest man in this quarter is probably Nick Kyrgios – if the tempestuous Aussie does happy! He meets Donald Young first – who has a losing career record on grass and is in poor form anyway – before a match against the winner of the all-Serb first round between Troicki and Tipsarevic. Kyrgios should have too much for either, and grass is the perfect surface for the Aussie’s power game as he’s shown by reaching the fourth round or better at Wimbledon in each of the last three years.
Quarter Three
Milos Raonic is the top seed in this section and after reaching the final both here and at Wimbledon last year he’ll have big expectations for the coming month. He actually led Murray by a set and a break in this final last year. However, his first half of 2016 was far better than this 2017’s been as he’s down in 14th in the ATP Race. His game can be wild at times and with grass producing lower bounces and often trickier to move on if the Canadian’s radar is slightly off that can be exacerbated on this surface. That being said, his draw is pretty decent. Nicolas Mahut is a potential round two opponent and the Frenchman loves playing on grass and has four Tour title on this surface since 2013 as well as a win here over Murray in 2012. That looks like a banana skin but Mahut has been more focused on doubles these days and we’d expect Raonic to come through.
His quarter-final match-up is seeded to be with 2014 Aegon champion Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian is another man with a grass-court win over Murray to his name but after coming so close to making the Australian Open final in January his form has gone downhill. He probably has the easiest route to the quarters in the draw but eight defeats in his last 12 matches mean we won’t be backing him this week.
Quarter Four
Murray’s conqueror in Paris, Stan Wawrinka, is probably one name we can scratch off our list of potential champions. The Swiss second seed has reached a couple of quarter-finals at Wimbledon but for several years didn’t even bother with a warm-up event for SW19 and his career record on grass away from Wimbledon is a poor W8-L11. A first round meeting with Feliciano Lopez is also one of the worst draws he could have received. Lopez made the final on grass last week in Stuttgart, where he beat Tomas Berdych, and as well as winning the Eastbourne title twice he’s also a former finalist here.
Tomas Berdych is the next highest seed in this section and shouldn’t have any problems in round one. He would then face either Kyle Edmund or Denis Shapovalov – infamously defaulted in the Davis Cup last year against Edmund for hitting the umpire with the ball. Shapovalov is the current Wimbledon Junior champion though and after coming through qualifying is someone to watch out for. We’d expect Berdych to come through against either and while the Czech is no longer the player he was a couple of years ago, and certainly vulnerable to an upset, the draw could well open up perfectly for him.
Murray to make it six?
Murray found some of his best form as the French Open progressed but there are no guarantees he’ll be able to switch that to a different surface. Furthermore, when he won the title here in 2016 he needed a third set in three of his five wins and won one of the others after two tie-breaks, and the nature of playing on grass suggests there is always the chance of an upset over a best of three set format.
With the extension of the grass-court swing a couple of years ago that has meant that an increasing number of top players have played a tournament on grass before coming to Queens and that includes the likes of Cilic, Dimitrov and Berdych as well as dangerous players like Feliciano Lopez, Gilles Muller and Nicolas Mahut. That gives the draw a wide open feel and with so many potential winners we’re keen to take on Murray at the top of the market. As we’ve already mentioned above, he’s come close to defeat here many times on the way to his previous titles and at 6/4 we simply can’t get involved.
The top half of the draw definitely looks the tougher section and that’s reflected somewhat in the next three in the betting coming from the bottom half. However, current form and question marks over their record on grass mean we’ll look to oppose each of Raonic, Wawrinka and Dimitrov.
Cilic is one to consider but his draw puts us off and we fancy Nick Kyrgios to make a big stride forward this week instead. Meanwhile, from the bottom half Berdych and Lopez look to be the best bets for our each-way money, with our preference just about for Czech at similar odds.
Recommendations:
Nick Kyrgios to win at 14/1 e/w
Tomas Berdych to win at 14/1 e/w
