Putin's advisors are 'on edge' as the Ukraine war has turned into a fiasco for the Russian military, expert says

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  • Putin advisors are "on edge" as the Ukraine war devolves into a debacle for Russia, an expert said.

  • Andrei Soldatov said Russia's military failures had shown cracks within Russian leadership.

  • "It looks like everybody is on edge," the expert on Russia's military and security services said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's advisors are "on edge" as Russia's war with Ukraine has devolved into a debacle — with Russian troops met by stronger Ukrainian resistance than anticipated, an expert told The New York Times.

"It looks like everybody is on edge," Andrei Soldatov, an author and expert on Russia's military and security services, told the news outlet in a report published Tuesday.

Soldatov said Russia's military failures in its monthlong war with Ukraine had begun to show cracks within Russian leadership.

When Putin launched his attack on Ukraine on February 24, he expected a swift victory, with the capital of Kyiv quickly falling to Russian forces, Western defense officials have said.

It's now a month into the war, and Ukraine's resistance has largely stalled the Russian military's advances. Putin's forces have since intensified their assault on multiple Ukrainian cities, including bombing and shelling residential buildings and hospitals.

"We can definitively say that nothing is going to plan," Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst, told The Times. "It has been decades since the Soviet and Russian armies have seen such great losses in such a short period of time."

Putin has reportedly begun purging his inner circle as the invasion drags on.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian media reported that Roman Gavrilov, the head of the Russian national guard, had been fired by Putin.

A Russian newspaper, Kommersant, reported Gavrilov had resigned.

A week prior, Soldatov said the ousted officials included the top Russian intelligence official tasked with managing the recruitment of spies and diversionary operations in Ukraine and his deputy, who have both been placed under house arrest.

Even Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spends summer vacations with Putin and has been eyed as the Russian leader's prospective successor, has seen his status decline, The Times reported, citing Soldatov's sources.

The Times said it could not independently verify Soldatov's claims but added that Shoigu had not been seen meeting with Putin in person since February 27 — three days after Russia invaded Ukraine.

According to The Times, some in Putin's orbit have voiced dissent over the war, including a former Federal Security Service official who said Russia had "underestimated" Ukraine and a group of Russian military officers who said invading Ukraine would be "pointless and extremely dangerous" and threaten the future of Russia.

Ukraine's military claimed earlier this week that it had killed 15,000 Russian troops and several top generals since February 24.

The US estimates around 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine — more than the number of American troops lost in either the Afghanistan or Iraq wars.

Ukraine has been armed by the US and European allies, but even the Ukrainian-made anti-tank missile is wrecking the Russian offensive that's failed to seize Ukraine's largest cities after a month of war.

Since the start of the war, the Russian aerospace forces have grown increasingly risk averse, even going so far as to skirt Ukrainian airspace to avoid being shot down by the countries anti-aircraft weapons.

As of March 19, at least 13 top Russian generals and commanders have been killed in the fighting in Ukraine.

Russian commanders are moving up towards the frontline in an attempt to restore momentum to the invasion of Ukraine according to western officials, said Gordon Corera, a BBC security correspondent, in a tweet.

Jeffrey Edmonds, a former US Army tanker and CIA military analyst, told Insider that he attributes the high casualty rate to a poorly trained Russian army which wasn't aware it would be in active combat.

"I've seen reports about units being destroyed and things of that nature," Edmonds said of the Russian army. "Typically, we think in the military that if you lose a third of your unit, then you're combat-ineffective because usually, psychologically, one in three dying or being taken out of the fight, your unit typically can't function well after that."

Read the original article on Business Insider