Prediction: Kentucky wins SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament. Here’s how it plays out.
It’s Tampa Time. The SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament begins Wednesday night at Amalie Arena in the Sunshine State. Five days. Thirteen games. One champion on Sunday afternoon will cut down the nets.
Four league members reside in the first 15 of the AP Top 25. Auburn is No. 4, followed by Kentucky at No. 5. Tennessee is tied for No. 9. Arkansas is No. 15. Four SEC teams occupy the top 16 of the NCAA Net rankings. Kentucky is No. 4, followed by No. 8 Tennessee, No. 10 Auburn and No. 16 LSU. Ken Pomeroy’s advance analytic rankings produce a similar result. Kentucky is No. 3, followed by Auburn at No. 7, Tennessee at No. 12 and LSU at No. 16.
One thing we know: There will be upsets.
With all that in mind, here’s how I see the tournament playing out.
Wednesday
Missouri over Ole Miss: Wednesday’s opener features two teams who struggle to put the ball in the basket. Ole Miss hasn’t been the same since freshman Daeshun Ruffin tore an ACL. Missouri moves on.
Vanderbilt over Georgia: Tom Crean can officially put the 2021-22 basketball season in a burn bag after the 6-25 Bulldogs lose to the Commodores on Wednesday. Will Crean be in Athens for 2022-23? Not likely.
Thursday
Texas A&M over Florida: Buzz Williams engineered a midseason course correction in College Station. After losing eight straight, the Buzz-worthy Aggies have won five of six, including the last four. Thursday afternoon will make it five.
LSU over Missouri: LSU mashed Mizzou by 20 points on Feb. 26 in Baton Rouge. Will Wade’s club will produce a similar result Thursday afternoon.
South Carolina over Mississippi State: Could this be it for Ben Howland in Starkville? His Mississippi State Bulldogs limped to the finish line, dropped three of their last four, including a 66-56 loss in Columbia on Feb. 23. Meanwhile, Frank Martin’s Gamecocks were 6-2 over their last eight games.
Vanderbilt over Alabama: Sorry, I just can’t trust Bama’s Jekyll and Tide act. Look for the 2021 tourney champs to make an early 2022 exit. Jerry Stackhouse’s Commodores pull the upset on Thursday night.
Friday
Texas A&M over Auburn: I know, I know, Auburn captured the regular-season title outright. Credit the Tigers’ 10-0 start. Bruce Pearl’s team was sucking wind at the finish line, 3-2 its last five. Auburn could use the extra rest before the NCAA Tournament. Aggies move on.
Arkansas over LSU: This should be a doozy. Arkansas pulled out a 77-76 win over the Tigers in Fayetteville on March 2, after which an elated Eric Musselman danced around Bud Walton hooping and a hollering. Friday afternoon won’t be as close.
Tennessee over South Carolina: The Vols might be playing the best basketball of any SEC team. They’ve won 10 of their last 11. UT beat South Carolina by 20 in Knoxville and by 24 in Columbia. It completes the three-game sweep on Friday night.
Kentucky over Vanderbilt: Vandy’s Cinderella run comes to an end. The Commodores’ Scotty Pippen Jr. is outstanding, but UK’s Oscar Tshiebwe is the player of the year.
Saturday
Arkansas over Texas A&M: A&M’s Cinderella run comes to an end, but not without a fight. The two teams split their regular-season meetings. Arkansas’ win was an overtime affair. This one could be, too.
Kentucky over Tennessee: The Cats and Vols also split their regular season meetings. Kentucky romped in Lexington. Knoxville rolled in Knoxville. At Saturday afternoon’s neutral site, Kentucky proves to be the better team. Just barely.
Sunday
Kentucky over Arkansas: The Razorbacks edged the Cats at Bud Walton on Feb. 26. That was the first game back for UK guards TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler, who had missed the previous two games with injuries. The Cats have the edge in both the AP poll and kenpom. Come Sunday afternoon, they’ll have the edge here, earning payback for the regular-season loss and giving John Calipari his seventh SEC Tournament title.
SEC Tournament schedule
At Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla.
Wednesday
6 p.m.: No. 12 Missouri (11-20) vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (13-18)
About 8:30 p.m.: No. 11 Vanderbilt (15-15) vs. No. 14 Georgia (6-25)
Thursday
Noon: No. 8 Texas A&M (20-11) vs. No. 9 Florida (19-12)
About 2:30 p.m.: No. 5 LSU (21-10) vs. Missouri-Ole Miss winner
6 p.m.: No. 7 South Carolina (18-12) vs. No. 10 Mississippi State (17-14)
About 8:30 p.m.: No. 6 Alabama (19-12) vs. Vanderbilt-Georgia winner
Friday
Noon: No. 1 Auburn (27-4) vs. Texas A&M-Florida winner
About 2:30 p.m.: No. 4 Arkansas (24-7) vs. LSU-Missouri-Ole Miss winner
6 p.m.: No. 2 Tennessee (23-7) vs. South Carolina-Mississippi State winner
About 8:30 p.m.: No. 3 Kentucky (25-6) vs. Alabama-Vanderbilt-Georgia winner
Saturday
1 p.m.: First semifinal
About 3:30 p.m.: Second semifinal
Sunday
1 p.m.: Championship game
TV
▪ First round, second round and Friday night’s quarterfinals (SEC Network)
▪ Friday’s afternoon quarterfinals, semifinals and championship game (ESPN)
Here’s the 2022 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament schedule
Key to the SEC Tournament for UK and its foes? Make Tampa a home away from home.
Lost then found: UK’s Elzy not only brings home SEC trophy but finds Calipari’s watch
Stumbling finish at Florida aside, UK’s ‘more than prepared’ for postseason
