Update on potential eclipse weather Monday afternoon in downstate Illinois

Tom Skilling
·3 min read
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Eclipse weather may be some of the best of any location along the Path of Totality in the Lower 48 states if current forecast trends continue

  • Our WGN-TV live SOLAR ECLIPSE coverage begins at 1pm and runs through 2:30pm CDT Monday. Our WGN team will staking out points across the Midwest along the path of totality and reporting to you live during this coming Monday’s total solar eclipse.

  • Our chief meteorologist Demetrius Ivory is headed for Cleveland, OH, our colleague Mike Janssen is headed for Carbondale proper and I’m headed (with producer Katharin Czink and video journalist Steve Scheuer and our WGN engineering crew) for the campground 15 miles south of Carbondale from which covered the 2017 solar eclipse.

I checked in with Jennifer Howell and her team from Adler Planetarium, who are on scene in Carbondale with this assessment of the Monday’s eclipse weather forecast. I sent Jennifer the following:

  • BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS: Downstate Illinois weather for Monday’s eclipse may rank “AMONG” if not “THE” most favorable in the Lower 48—along the path of eclipse totality for viewing may occur in southern Illinois and in some areas of the southern Midwest.

  • This is laid out in these Friday afternoon-generated forecast of potential weather conditions at 1pm CDT Monday.

Here, from left to right, are descriptions of the graphics I’m sending along:

National Weather Service “blended model” percent of sky with cloud cover—currently predicted at 24%. (Note: The projection for Carbondale cloud cover during the 2017 solar eclipse was 35%).

The latest ECLIPSE WEATHER RELEASE from the National Weather Service’s WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER—the agency’s central analysis and forecast guidance-generating facility at the University of Maryland outside Washington, D.C.

Predicted eclipse time air temps, per a new AI-assisted model, run out of the European Medium Range Forecast Centre

The European Centre’s AI-assisted 10,000-foot level relative humidity forecast at 1pm CDT Monday eclipse time. The brown shade indicated the region with the driest air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This is a new model product, but I’m following it with interest. AI-assisted forecasting is being touted as yielding interesting and encouraging results.

The European Centre AI-assisted 5,000-foot level relative humidity at 1pm CDT Monday eclipse time. Again, the areas in shades of brown are the regions with the driest lower atmospheric air. The humidities projected would suggest some scattered puffy fair weather cumulus clouds but looks as promising as at any point along the path of totality.

It’s days ahead of the eclipse which introduces a level of “uncertainty” in any forecast at that time range. But the consistency of forecasts I’ve been observing for days now, sure looks encouraging! FINGERS CROSSED!

IMPORTANT NOTE ON WEATHER FORECASTS FOR MONDAY’S ECLIPSE: It’s days ahead of the eclipse, and it goes without saying that pinpointing weather conditions at that distance in time automatically introduces a level of “uncertainty.” SO THIS FORECAST IS HARDLY CARVED IN STONE YET. But the consistency of forecasts I’ve been observing for days now, sure looks encouraging! MY FINGERS—and those of MANY OTHERS—ARE CROSSED as we approach this fascinating celestial event!

Thanks to NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Naval Observatory Astronomical Applications Department for these graphics:

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