New polling shows troubling road for reelection for Biden. How will it impact Kern County voters?

BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) — A new poll by Nexstar, the parent company of KGET, shows what could be an ominous battle ahead for President Joe Biden, who is running for reelection against former President Donald Trump.

Biden trails Trump in seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden won all of them, minus North Carolina, in 2020. And some, he won by very slim margins, like Arizona, which was with less than 0.5 points.

“The presidential election is determined by 11, 12 states, not the entire nation,” said 17 News Democratic political analyst Neel Sannappa. “We’ve known that for years, and so that’s why you always see a particular focus on states that are in the middle, that are purple states that might flip blue, flip red.”

New poll shows Trump ahead of Biden in seven key swing states

According to the poll, the state of the presidential election in these swing states has been consistent since November.

Despite Democrats and Republicans alike rallying behind their candidate of choice, there’s agreement things don’t look great for President Biden.

“As a Democrat, I’ve been concerned for a while now,” Sannappa said.

“An incumbent pretty much affects their own reelection,” said 17 News GOP analyst Cathy Abernathy. “No matter who the challenger is, the incumbent has two things: they’ve got a record, and they’ve got their behavior, and the third thing would be their promises.”

Biden’s record, Abernathy said, is a troubling indicator for the incumbent. Trump’s record, on the other hand, Abernathy noted, is a good one.

“You don’t always have a current and former president running against each other,” the analyst said. “So, they each will be judged, I believe the most, on their record. That’s tough for Joe Biden right now.”

Trump has a solid voter base in Kern County, which he won both in 2016 and 2020. Kern County has voted for the GOP nominee in 14 straight presidential elections.

“This area is very strong, pro America and the world situation, pro democracies, leader of the free world, that’s how Donald Trump behaved as president.”

When asked about Trump’s New York criminal trial over alleged hush money payments, a majority of Republicans said if there’s a guilty verdict, they’re more likely to vote for Trump.

And when asked if the trial is appropriate to hold Trump accountable or is a “witch hunt,” voters in each state responded:

• Arizona: 47% said appropriate; 43% said witch hunt

• Georgia: 48% said appropriate; 41% said witch hunt

• Michigan: 50% said appropriate; 43% said witch hunt

• Nevada: 51% said appropriate; 40% said witch hunt

• North Carolina: 46% said appropriate; 45% said witch hunt

• Pennsylvania: 50% said appropriate; 43% said witch hunt

• Wisconsin: 49% said appropriate; 43% said witch hunt

“You still have to balance when it’s all over is whatever happens with these court various cases versus having four more years of Joe Biden, there’s no debate,” Abernathy said of Trump’s various trials.

But why is Kern County so set on Trump, other than his being the presumptive GOP nominee for 2024?

“We didn’t have the campaigns some of these states had where [other GOP presidential] candidates are in your face at the breakfast table and coffee shops, so there was never that kind of close loyalty,” Abernathy explained of why Kern voters have stuck with Trump.

She added that because Trump showed solid performance over all the other candidates, the GOP support locally will be strong in voting for the former president.

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“[Voters care about] the economy, their jobs, their safety and throw in the border. Because it used to be, it was a Texas problem,” Abernathy said of issues important to Kern residents.

The poll also shows Biden’s disapproval ratings are higher than his approval ratings in all seven swing states — above 50% disapproval.

The poll also shows a decent number of undecided voters in all seven swing states.

“The undecided number is really what’s going to decide those states … [Trump’s] base is just more solidified [right now]. It doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to win.”

As for the independent voter base, both analysts stated there’s no such thing as a true independent and that in Kern County, these no party preference voters likely lean to the right.

“It’s not really a true independent,” Abernathy said. “I think it’s somebody that leans either way, left or right, and in Kern County, fortunately, they tend to lean right.”

Sannappa said, independent voters can go either way. “But in reality, independent voters are usually split by what the voter registration for parties is.”

In Kern County, there are more registered Democrats.

“I think a lot of the poll results have to do with where our youth is right now,” Sannappa also pointed out, noting the left is dealing with more “fracturing” issues.

Most notable is Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Sannappa also stated support for Biden is based on a generational divide — those older are pro-Israel, while those younger lean towards supporting the end to the war.

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And for Kern, Neel Sannappa emphasized because we’re in a blue state, presidential contests have an additional significance.

“They’re more of a catalyst to our more local races when it comes to congressional races, state senate, assembly, city council on down,” Sannappa said.

Abernathy shared similar excitement, noting she’s anticipating high turnout for the U.S. Senate race between Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey too.

“Somebody with a name, already built in, that makes it easier. You say the name, people know who you’re talking about. That may mean we could have a real contest,” Abernathy said of Garvey.

On that specific race, Sannappa criticized a strategy by the Schiff campaign — elevating the opponent he wants to face off in the November general election.

“I think it was unfortunate that Adam Schiff spent a lot of money to bolster Republican turnout in the primary to make sure he had a Republican to run against in the U.S. Senate,” Sannappa began. “And what’s unfortunate for Democrats when that happens is one, in the primary, that really affects the down ballot.”

Sannappa said Schiff may have boosted Republican turnout overall, and that energy could carry over to November.

“We need to send a Democrat to the White House with some help in Congress,” Sannappa said.

The Democratic analyst also underscored it’s most important to note that polls, no matter how accurate, aren’t always indicative of election results.

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