New poll shows Trump is 'highly competitive' against leading 2020 Democrats in key battleground states

Brendan Morrow

A year ahead of the 2020 presidential election, some new polling shows President Trump in a strong position in key battleground states.

A new poll released Monday by The New York Times and Siena College matches up Trump against former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the six closest states the president won in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Among registered voters, Trump leads Warren by between three and six percentage points in three out of six of these states (Michigan, Florida, and North Carolina) and is even with her in two (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), while Warren beats him by two percentage points in one state: Arizona. Trump also leads Sanders by between one and three percentage points in three states (Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina), while Sanders beats Trump by one or two percentage points in the other three (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

Biden, meanwhile, beats Trump among registered voters in four out of the six states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona), while Trump beats him in North Carolina and ties him in Michigan. Among likely voters, Trump generally fares better against the candidates, leading or tying Warren in all six states. This comes as the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Warren within five points of Biden nationally.

The Times' Nate Cohn notes this polling shows Trump "remains highly competitive" in these states crucial to his re-election, adding that "on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before."

This poll was conducted by speaking to 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13-26. The margin of error for each state is 4.4 percentage points except for Michigan, where the margin of error is 5.1 percentage points. Read the full results at The New York Times.