New poll shows Sharice Davids up 14 points in Kansas rematch against Amanda Adkins

Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Amanda Adkins, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

Davids and Adkins’ contest to represent the Kansas 3rd Congressional District is among the most closely watched U.S. House races in the nation this election. Adkins, a former Cerner executive, lost by 10 points when she challenged Davids for the suburban Kansas City district in 2020.

The poll released Thursday evening has Davids leading Adkins by an even larger margin than her 2020 victory. Davids led Adkins 55% to 41% in the survey of 431 likely voters, which was conducted between Oct. 19 and 24.

The New York Times and Siena College have accurately polled the district in the past, correctly predicting Davids’ 2018 victory over then-incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder.

The poll showed that 53% of respondents held a very or somewhat favorable view of Davids, while just 34% held very or somewhat favorable views of Adkins.

The Kansas Legislature adjusted the boundaries of Davids district to remove half of Wyandotte County, the most reliably blue part of the district, in favor of two more rural and Republican-leaning counties south of Johnson County. The new map was widely expected to complicate Davids’ chances at reelection in a year already anticipated to be a red wave.

“Especially in a newly-drawn district, we aren’t taking anything for granted,” Davids’ campaign spokesperson Ellie Turner said in a statement Thursday evening.

However, internal Democratic polling has shown the race much closer than the New York Times poll, a Democratic strategist told The Star.

“I don’t know what model the Times is using but this is going to be a very tight race. Our polls show it’s a true toss up at this point,” the strategist said in a text message.

Davids has sought to capitalize on abortion rights in the wake of Kansas’ landslide rejection of an anti-abortion amendment in August.

“It’s ultimately going to be up to the people of the Kansas Third to decide if they want to keep making progress on issues like rising costs, health care, and education—or if they want to go backwards to the pre-Roe days where politicians made women’s healthcare decisions for them,” Turner said in her statement.

Adkins has focused on tying Davids to President Joe Biden and attacking the Democrat for high inflation.

In a statement, Adkins disputed the accuracy of the poll.

“Nancy Pelosi’s Super PAC wouldn’t be spending millions in a last ditch effort to save Davids if these numbers were even close to accurate,” Adkins said.

If the poll is accurate, it may also prove to be a positive omen for Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly whose reelection will depend in part on strong turnout in Johnson County.

In an interview prior to the release of the poll, Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist with Target Smart, warned that polling would be extra challenging this year given the dynamics that drove August’s vote. Turnout, especially among young women, was significantly higher than expected.

“This dynamic where turnout is so charged, and it’s so unusual - we’re seeing things happening now that we just haven’t seen happen before in terms of voter engagement - makes it even harder for pollsters to determine who is going to vote,” Bonier said.

The Star’s Jon Shorman contributed to this report.