Poll: Which Senate Incumbents Are Most Vulnerable?

Michael Catalini, Naureen Khan and Peter Bell
National Journal

Which red-state Democratic senator is most vulnerable going into 2014?

DEMOCRATS (98 Votes)

Mark Begich, Alaska: 18%
Mark Pryor, Arkansas: 31%
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: 18%
Max Baucus, Montana: 4%
Kay Hagan, North Carolina: 29%

Mark Begich

“Tough place to be a Democrat. Oil and gas interests rule the land where enviros wish they did.”

“Begich, hands down, running in a R+14 state, unless Sarah Palin runs against him. Then he’d win by 14.”

Mark Pryor

“Tom Cotton would pose a major problem for Pryor, who will also suffer from a national Democratic Party which is putting him into an increasing number of awkward situations (such as gay marriage).”

“The first Senate ads of the 2014 cycle are up [in] Arkansas for a reason.”

Mary Landrieu

“The fault line between Democrats and Republicans is deeper than ever in Louisiana.”

“All five will win. Proven records for the people of their states, good fundraising ability, and strong state operations.”

Max Baucus

“Red state, leadership position, and long tenure in Congress. This trifecta will make it tough for the Finance Committee chairman.”

Kay Hagan

“Obama barely won N.C. in 2008 and lost it in 2012. And Sen. Hagan’s recent announcement in support of gay marriage, while admirable, will make her reelection more difficult.”

“It will be tough with no wave to ride.”

“When a one-term incumbent Democratic governor decides to bow out without a fight, you know it’s a tough state for D’s.”



Which red-state Democratic senator is most vulnerable going into 2014?


Mark Begich, Alaska: 24%
Mark Pryor, Arkansas: 17%
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana: 18%
Max Baucus, Montana: 7%
Kay Hagan, North Carolina: 34%

Mark Begich

“Begich’s only hope is for Joe Miller to get in. But if he stays out and [Lt. Gov. Mead] Treadwell gets in, Begich is toast.”

“Has actually been an excellent senator, but he was a [Department of Justice]-engineered fluke that won’t survive in an off-year election.”

Mark Pryor

“Arkansas has turned bright red, and Pryor’s votes are out of the mainstream of the Razorback State.”

“A nice man who could not be more out of line with his state. And we all know where nice guys finish.”

Mary Landrieu

“All should fall—but first the GOP must find five candidates who can tie their shoes and run five campaigns better than the typical campaign for high school president.”

“Too many R’s have voodoo dolls of Mary.”

Max Baucus

“At some point, money doesn’t buy you love.”

Kay Hagan

“North Carolina went strongly R in 2010 and 2012. The old moderate-Dem machine is busted for good. Hagan is one and done.”

“Through no fault of her own, though. N.C. will trend back to its red political roots because of her president.”

“N.C. senators get virtually no news coverage at home and, hence, all are weak.”

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Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O’Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.