New poll: Pa. voters warming to Biden. Where things stand in presidential, Senate races.

New polling suggests that Democratic President Joe Biden's disapproval ratings in Pennsylvania may be eclipsed by dislike for his most likely opponent in November.

In a survey of 800 registered Pennsylvania voters conducted March 22-26, The Bullfinch Group found that most people (51%) would refuse to vote for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. The poll was commissioned by the libertarian-leaning Commonwealth Foundation in Harrisburg.

Still, Biden's lead over Trump (44-41%) in the hypothetical head-to-head is slim, falling within the survey's 3.46% margin of error.

“If there’s one thing for certain heading into this 2024 election season, it’s this: Pennsylvania will be a hotly contested, critical swing state," said Nathan Benefield, senior vice president for the Commonwealth Foundation. "Pennsylvanian voters are undoubtedly a bellwether for the nation as a whole.”

Biden's marginal lead comes as some Pennsylvanians have seemingly warmed to the job he's done, with his approval rating up 7 points (38% to 45%) from the end of last year.

Conversely, the past two Commonwealth Foundation surveys have seen Trump's numbers remain level. He's maintained an unflinching 41% of Pennsylvanians' support in both.

Things appear to be less competitive in the state's U.S. Senate race.

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) leads likely GOP nominee David McCormick 47-30%, with 8% leaning toward "other" and 15% in favor of "none of the above." Casey rates at a plus-11 among Pennsylvanians, with a plurality (47%) viewing him favorably.

The poll also touched on K-12 education, the state budget and the economy, among other topics.

Pennsylvania education policy

School choice expansion, a point of contention within the divided Pennsylvania Legislature, is viewed positively in various forms by a majority of commonwealth voters.

The poll found support for more tax credit scholarships (80%), government-funded education opportunity accounts for parents in the state's lowest-performing school districts (77%) and giving students the ability to attend any public school regardless of their home address (70%).

More than half (59%) said they'd send their kids to a private or charter school if cost were no object.

“Parents are hungry for educational options, and more than three-in-four voters support Lifeline Scholarships," Benefield said.

2024-25 state budget

Though Gov. Josh Shapiro enjoys high favorability (62%), voters are less enthusiastic about aspects of his spending plan for 2024-25.

The majority (61%) indicated they believe Shapiro's 7.1% budget increase is too high. Just 29% said they would support his plan if it would ultimately lead to draining the state's $6-billion Rainy Day Fund and a tax increase.

“While voters support the issues candidate Shapiro touted, they are staunchly opposed to his latest budget," Benefield said. "They recognize that Governor Shapiro’s proposed budget — with its $3 billion spending increase and deficits in perpetuity — will result in higher taxes."

A proposal to spend $300 million to "bail out" mass transit systems in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh was opposed by 56% of respondents.

What is the economy in Pennsylvania?

Most of the polled Pennsylvanians (57%) said the economy is not good, or poor. An even greater percentage (68%) suggested that inflation has affected them a great deal or fair amount.

Voters were a little more upbeat in terms of job outlook: A plurality (40%) believe it's a good time to find a job, with 37% saying it's a bad time and 22% unsure.

Pennsylvanians appear to be largely divided about who's to blame for the economy and who is best suited to fix it.

Nearly a third of those polled (31%) responded that Biden has improved economic conditions, while a narrow plurality (39%) feel he's worsened them. The remaining respondents said Biden either had no effect on the economy in Pennsylvania (17%) or are unsure (13%).

Regarding which party is more trusted to help the economy, voters were split evenly (43%) about Democrats and Republicans.

“Inflation and the rising cost of living remain chief concerns facing Pennsylvanians in 2024," Benefield said. "With over two-thirds of voters saying that rising prices are eating away at their standard of living — and the economic data indicates they are right — it’s no wonder that a plurality report their family is worse off than two years ago, and a majority think Bidenomics has worsened or had no effect on economic conditions.”

Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania state capital bureau. He can be reached at bsiwy@gannett.com or on X at @BruceSiwy.

This article originally appeared on York Daily Record: 2024 PA voters poll: Joe Biden with slim lead over Donald Trump