Poll: No sign of populist backlash against Biden after Silicon Valley Bank collapse
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Despite Republican criticism of the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds no sign of populist backlash to the Biden administration’s response.
The survey of 1,582 U.S. adults conducted from March 16 to 20, does show that more Americans now say the country is “in a recession” (54%) than said so before Silicon Valley Bank imploded on March 10. That number has risen 7 percentage points since October (despite the fact that recent economic data has shown solid GDP growth, better-than-expected job creation and high but easing inflation).
Meanwhile, an additional 12% of Americans who don’t think the U.S. is currently experiencing a recession nonetheless believe it is “heading for” one — and a majority (58%) are at least somewhat worried “that other banks might fail, triggering a larger financial crisis.”
Growing economic anxieties, however, have yet to translate into public outrage of the sort that followed the 2008 financial crisis. For instance, a full 56% of Americans approve — and just 13% disapprove — of the federal government’s decision to shut down Silicon Valley Bank after its collapse. Even more (67%) approve of the government making sure that “all of the bank’s depositors had access to their funds by the following day”; only 15% disapprove. A scant 15% say the government response was not “necessary to prevent other bank runs that could trigger a larger financial crisis.” Most Americans (52%) say the response was necessary.
These attitudes differ only marginally by party, with little in the way of backlash — even among Republicans:
53% of Republicans approve and just 15% disapprove of the decision to shut down the bank
65% of Republicans approve and just 19% disapprove of the decision to give all depositors access to their funds the next day
46% of Republicans say the response was necessary to "prevent other bank runs that could trigger a larger financial crisis," more than twice the number who say it was not necessary (20%).
In contrast, just 26% of Americans say that “looking back,” they approve of “the federal government’s response to the financial crisis of 2008.”
Much of the criticism leveled at the Biden administration in recent days has centered on the idea of a “bailout” — in particular, the government’s decision to stem further panic by guaranteeing that even wealthy tech investors who deposited more than $250,000 in Silicon Valley Bank will get their money back. (Under U.S. law, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation [FDIC] only insures deposits up to $250,000.)
But overall, far more Americans (47%) approve of the idea that “deposits larger than $250,000 will also be refunded” than disapprove (28%), while just 41% say they would describe the government’s response as a "bailout.” Even fewer choose “bailout” (37%) when offered "rescue" (31%) as an alternative. All in all, the total number of Americans who say the government is either doing the “right” amount (35%) or “too little” (12%) is twice as big as the number who say it is doing “too much” (24%).
As a result, President Biden’s job approval rating (43% approve, 51% disapprove) has not suffered since the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey in late February (41% approve, 53% disapprove). If anything, it has improved slightly. Biden’s ratings on the economy (38% approve, 53% disapprove) and inflation (34% approve, 56% disapprove) are also within a point or two of prior readings.
None of which is to suggest that the Silicon Valley Bank fallout can’t or won’t rupture existing political fault lines in the future. Nearly half of 2020 Donald Trump voters, for example, disapprove of the decision to guarantee deposits over $250,000 (49%), while just a third (33%) approve. And even though far more Americans say the government response so far has been fair (42%) rather than unfair (24%), those numbers are reversed among Trump voters (29% fair, 40% unfair).
Much will depend going forward on on how far the damage spreads beyond Silicon Valley Bank — and who ends up footing the bill. When told that “the federal government says that funds for paying out even the largest Silicon Valley Bank deposits will not come from taxpayers, but rather from the FDIC itself, which will make up any losses with increased fees on banks,” more than twice as many Americans say they approve (50%) than say they disapprove (23%). But when asked if they” trust the federal government [that] taxpayers will not be on the hook for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank,” far more say no (47%) than yes (27%) — with a full 62% of Republicans and 58% of independents saying they do not trust the federal government.
Fact-checkers have noted that it’s only the depositors being bailed out, not the bank — or its shareholders or bondholders — and that by preventing a bank run, the feds may not actually have to pay out much at all. Critics argue that the cost will be passed onto bank customers in the form of higher fees.
Either way, Americans largely agree on what to do next. A full 53% favor — while just 16% oppose — putting “back in place” the “tighter regulations on banks” that Congress passed “in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis” and then loosened in 2018. Even Republicans (48% favor, 18% oppose) and Trump voters (45% favor, 23% oppose) tend to want to revive such regulations, which were weakened by a Republican-led Congress and Trump, with some Democratic support. Progressive Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has been a major proponent of reviving them.
Americans also agree on the causes of the current crisis. “Risky corporate behavior” leads the list (49% say it mattered a lot, 68% at least a little), ahead of rising interest rates (32% a lot, 61% at least a little) and lack of federal oversight (34% a lot, 61% at least a little). Risky corporate behavior (33%) also comes out on top when Americans are asked which factor played the “biggest role” in the Silicon Valley Bank collapse (versus 13% each for rising interest rates and lack of federal oversight).
Americans select the GOP’s preferred narrative — i.e., “the bank’s emphasis on diversity and inclusion” — least often as a cause of the collapse, with just 23% saying it contributed a lot and only 8% saying it played the biggest role.
Diversity and inclusion, of course, draw more blame from Republicans (32% a lot, 54% at least a little), Trump voters (42% a lot, 62% at least a little) and Fox News viewers (40% a lot, 65% at least a little). Even among these groups, however, far more say risky corporate behavior played the biggest role in the bank's collapse than say diversity and inclusion.
Ultimately, Americans seem concerned over the Silicon Valley Bank situation, but not panicked. Just 12% say they have withdrawn money from their bank “because of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank”; just 18% say they are considering doing so. And a full 55% agree (while just 30% disagree) that “Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. Your deposits will be there when you need them” — even when that statement is explicitly attributed to President Biden.
When the quote is not attributed to Biden (among half of respondents) that gap is even wider — 63% agree to 24% disagree — and includes majorities of both Republicans (57% agree, 32% disagree) and Trump voters (53% agree, 35% disagree).
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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,582 U.S. adults interviewed online from March 16 to 20, 2023. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to March 15, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (32% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.
