Poll: How Likely Are Republicans to Take Over the Senate in 2014?
On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?
DEMOCRATS (83 VOTES)
Average: 4.0
Slight chance (0-3): 42%
Moderate chance (4-6): 53%
Strong chance (7-10): 5%
Slight chance
"They can't help recruiting themselves out of winning."
"It is very likely that Republicans will make meaningful progress in their numbers in the Senate, but this is where a handful of past overreaches to the right really make it tough to get to 51 for Republicans. Ken Buck. Todd Akin. Christine O'Donnell. Dick Mourdock. Tough to run when you keep shooting yourself in the foot."
"They have a real opportunity but for the Akin/Mourdock wing of their party, which keeps winning primaries."
"Their primaries and extremism will, again, prevent them from taking the majority. On top of that, their fundraising is stagnant due to disarray and dismal returns last cycle."
"GOP will have to pull a straight flush to win the Senate. Not going to happen."
Moderate chance
"Southern Democratic incumbents will have their hands full."
"Republicans still need a few difficult wins over incumbent Democrats and do not appear to have the wind at their back."
"Too early to tell. Republicans should be doing better given second-term midterm blues, but they are having a tough time putting all the pieces together."
"The math favors the Republicans, but they have screwed up their chances the last two cycles. Remains to be seen whether they will do that again."
"Still possible, but now Kentucky and Georgia make it harder."
"It should be higher, but the Republicans continue to play a game of Russian roulette with the tea partiers, and too often they lose a Senate seat they otherwise would have won with a more mainstream candidate."
"Less than 50-50, as they still need to run the table; but our recruitment in a few places is just horrendous and leaves the door open."
Strong chance
"I really hope I'm wrong, but candidate recruitment has not been our strength this time around. You would think Dems could find one interesting person in some of these states who could give the Republicans a solid race. But not happening."
On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?
REPUBLICANS (96 VOTES)
Average: 5.3
Slight chance (0-3): 16%
Moderate chance (4-6): 63%
Strong chance (7-10): 21%
Slight chance
"Republicans taking the Senate is feeling like Charlie Brown kicking the football."
"There are sufficient opportunities for pickups. The problem is that there are also a handful of vulnerable seats that offset to a degree, [making] getting to 51 unlikely."
Moderate chance
"It's possible, but we have to learn some lessons we haven't shown we have learned yet."
"Republicans misfired with unforced errors in 2010 and 2012. Takeover in 2014 will require better performance."
"2014 will depend on quality of GOP candidates."
"GOP still needs to get its act together. Too many primaries, and the opportunity will slip away."
"Given how in last two cycles we've ruined golden opportunities with moronic nominees, I'm not gushing with confidence."
"The GOP brand is so damaged, I worry they will snatch minority from the jaws of majority."
"Feels like one or two seats too many to overtake."
"Dead even right now; recent Dem recruitment strength (Georgia, Kentucky) will divert some GOP resources. Right track/wrong track numbers still not bad enough to wash out Democrats."
"Too many missing opportunities in purple states—no candidate in Virginia, no top-tier candidates in Iowa and Minnesota and Michigan, etc."
Strong chance
"There are seven seats in states won by Romney; presidents lose, on average, six seats in their second term; Democratic National Committee/Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee debt is north of $20 million; National Republican Senatorial Committee has out-recruited the Democrats."
"Watch for a late-breaking Louisiana win to put the GOP over the top."
"Numbers don't lie, and geography matters. The states in play are favorable to the GOP. But there is still time for the party to screw it up."
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Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.
GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.
