Poll: Hillary Clinton Will Win Election
Despite questions throughout the campaign about whether Millennial women would turn out to support Hillary Clinton, a new Cosmopolitan.com survey shows that a decisive majority of the site’s readers think Clinton should - and will - win the election in November. The survey of 1,097 women between the ages of 18 and 34 who were randomly selected from among Cosmopolitan.com newsletter subscribers and said they are likely to vote, revealed that 71 percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers would vote for Clinton if the election were held today, and 84 percent predict that she will win the presidency. By contrast, only 23 percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers said they would support Trump, and 16 percent expect him to win.
Clinton’s support is matched by strong favorability numbers that have risen since another survey of Cosmopolitan.com readers in June. Today, 63 percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers say they have a favorable view of Clinton, a ten-point bump since June. Trump’s favorability numbers, on the other hand, have stayed steady at approximately 20 percent, signaling that young women have become markedly more enthusiastic about the Democratic candidate over the course of the summer.
The survey, conducted in partnership with John Della Volpe, CEO of SocialSphere and director of polling at the Harvard Institute for Politics, found that more Clinton supporters are voting for their candidate, rather than against the other candidate. Fifty-four percent of Clinton voters said they were voting for their candidate, rather than against the other candidate, while only 32 percent of Trump supporters said they were voting for their candidate - a decrease since June, when 41 percent of Trump supporters said they were voting for their candidate.
Although some Clinton supporters still had reservations about their candidate, describing her as “shady” or “untrustworthy,” many seemed genuinely excited about the idea of a Hillary Clinton presidency. “She’s an incredible woman who’s gotten stuff done and knows how to compromise in a real way,” said Polly Faust, 25, a Clinton supporter who works in marketing in Chicago. “I just think she’s been preparing for this her whole life, dealing with misogynistic men all her life, and she’s ready, and she’s going to be amazing.”
The broad support for Clinton could be explained, in part, by the fact that Cosmopolitan.com readers think Clinton is better suited than Trump to deal with a wide range of issues, including the economy (61 percent Clinton vs. 28 percent Trump), national security (63 percent Clinton vs. 25 percent Trump), health care (65 percent Clinton vs. 23 percent Trump), and tax policy (63 percent Clinton and 26 percent Trump). “Some people criticize her for this, but I love that she is so specific on policy - she’s detailed and thoughtful and has clearly consulted with all the right people,” said Caitlin Dowd, 30, a Clinton supporter who works at an auction house in New York City.
Cosmopolitan.com readers were especially likely to view Clinton as more adept in policy arenas that affect women specifically. “She’s going to be great on women’s rights, she really has the background on that, and I just don’t think Donald Trump has a clue,” said Flor Robles, 31, a Clinton supporter who works in IT and lives in Texas. On reproductive rights, 77 percent viewed Clinton as better, while only 11 percent said the same of Trump, and on the wage gap between men and women, 78 percent viewed Clinton as better, while only 9 percent said the same of Trump. At the Republican National Convention, Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, promised that her father would fight the wage gap and help make childcare affordable, but Trump was subsequently criticized for excluding fathers and adoptive parents in his proposal.
Jamie Forslund, 32, a teacher in Philadelphia, wondered if Millennials’ strong support for Bernie Sanders had made some Clinton supporters afraid to speak up previously. “I’m liberal so everyone expected me to be for Bernie, and I really didn’t want to say I was for Hillary,” she said. But once she started telling her friends and family, she discovered that nearly everyone was also backing Clinton. “It became easier to openly support her.”
In a survey of Cosmopolitan.com readers conducted in February during the primaries, younger Millennial women (ages 18 to 24) tended to support Sanders, while older Millennial women (ages 25 to 34) tended to support Clinton. Today, however, younger and older Millennial readers are equally likely to say they’re voting for Clinton.
For some Cosmopolitan.com readers, the contrast between Clinton and Trump helped clarify the decision. “It’s increasingly clear that his only commitment is to himself and his name,” said Jennabrynn Melgar, 28, an administrative assistant in Nevada. “Whereas her main concern is the well-being of this nation.”
Asked about the effect of the candidates’ spouses on the race, Cosmopolitan.com readers agreed that Bill Clinton and Melania Trump were both more of a hindrance than a help. Fifty-three percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers said Bill Clinton hurt the campaign, while 26 percent said he helped, and 21 percent said he made no difference. When asked to explain why Bill Clinton could have a negative effect on the campaign, though, many readers shrugged away the question. “To the people that are against her, I think he’s hurting her, but his presence is a plus for me,” said Dawn Walter, 33, a sales analyst in Virginia who is supporting Clinton. “He’s got experience and he can be a sounding board.” Perspectives on Melania Trump were less negative, but few thought her presence was helping her husband: 32 percent of respondents said she hurt the campaign, 15 percent said she helped, and 54 percent said she made no difference.
Tim Kaine, Clinton’s running mate, was widely viewed to be ineffective but benign. Sixty-three percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers said they thought Kaine made no difference to the campaign, while 24 percent said he helped, and 13 percent said he hurt the campaign.
Trump’s vice-presidential pick, Mike Pence, on the other hand, was perceived to be more of an asset to his candidate. Thirty-seven percent of Cosmopolitan.com readers said he helped the campaign, while 21 percent said he hurt the campaign, and 42 percent said he made no difference. Several Trump supporters, including Laura Scrimenti, 18, a student from Oregon, said that Pence’s presence on the ticket was calming their fears about Trump as a candidate. “When Pence was named VP, I had no qualms about voting for Trump,” she said. Pence’s pro-life stance appealed to her, she explained, and made her feel like at least one candidate on the ticket shared her values.
But others reported that Pence’s track record on certain issues - as governor of Indiana, he dramatically rolled back women’s access to abortion - made them even more determined to vote for Clinton. “I am very upset that Trump manages to make Pence seem sane and rational,” said Joanna Balin, 27, a Clinton supporter who works in television in New York City. “He essentially wants to outlaw abortion. He wanted women to have funerals for miscarriages. In some ways, I think he’s more dangerous than Trump.”
Some former Bernie Sanders supporters expressed regret at voting for a person they saw as a flawed candidate. Eliana Alvarez, 20, a student in New York City who voted for Sanders in the primary, said she chose Clinton in part because she agreed with some of Clinton’s policies, but mostly because she couldn’t consider the possibility of voting for Trump. “From the beginning he’s been racist and sexist and homophobic and Islamophobic,” she said. “It’s not what we need in a leader of the free world.”
For Maggie Mahoney, though, a 32-year-old legal assistant in Ohio, the choice was easy. When Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, she became an enthusiastic Clinton supporter. “Of course I’m excited because she’s a woman and she’s making history, but it goes much further than that,” she said. “She really is for the people and I believe she’ll be a good president - and not just because I’m not a fan of Donald Trump.”
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