Poll gives Bynum slight lead over McLeod Skinner in 5th Congressional District Democratic primary

State Rep. Janelle Bynum (left) and Jamie McLeod-Skinner are in a tough fight for the Democratic nomination in the 5th Congressional District. (Campaign photos)

A new poll paid for by Janelle Bynum’s congressional campaign shows the state representative with a slim lead over fellow Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner days before ballots will be mailed out. 

The phone poll of 402 likely Democratic voters in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, conducted between April 26 and 28 by Democratic polling firm Brilliant Corners, found that 37% of respondents said they would vote for Bynum or were leaning toward voting for her, compared to 34% of voters who said the same about McLeod-Skinner. More than a quarter of respondents were still undecided with a little less than a month to go before the May 21 deadline to return ballots. 

It’s a huge shift in the race since last summer and fall, when a poll commissioned by McLeod-Skinner and another poll by a group that supports term limits for members of Congress both showed McLeod-Skinner trouncing the competition, including Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, who has dropped out and Bynum, who entered the race in June. Since then, national Democrats and state Democratic leaders have coalesced around Bynum as their preferred choice to take on vulnerable Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the Democratic-leaning 5th District. 

Bynum spokeswoman Blakely Wall said in a statement that the new poll underscores the momentum the campaign has built. 

“We are proud of our campaign’s grassroots support that has made this all possible, and we look forward to building on this progress to help take back the House and bring true representation back to Oregon families,” Wall said. 

Brilliant Corners also did polling for Bynum’s campaign in February, and comparisons show that the state representative has become better known in the district over recent months. In February, about two-thirds of voters polled recognized McLeod-Skinner’s name, but less than a quarter of respondents knew Bynum. By April, 69% of respondents knew McLeod-Skinner and 53% knew Bynum.

Respondents rated them similarly on a scale from 0 to 100 in February, with Bynum averaging 59.5 and McLeod-Skinner averaging 58.7. While McLeod-Skinner’s average rating was virtually the same two months later, Bynum’s had risen to 67.4.

In February, just 15% of respondents said they would back Bynum, compared to 38% of respondents who were for McLeod-Skinner. Nearly half the February respondents were undecided or interested in Matthew Davie, a Bend tech executive who toyed with running but ultimately didn’t file. 

Bynum began running ads in the district two weeks ago, while McLeod-Skinner’s first ads will begin airing Tuesday. 

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