Politico sources say front line in Ukraine might collapse if Russia goes on offensive
There is a high risk that the front line will collapse if Russian forces launch a new offensive this summer, senior Ukrainian military sources have told Politico on condition of anonymity. They said Ukraine is in need of drones, howitzers, and hundreds of thousands of shells and missiles.
Source: senior Ukrainian officers speaking to Politico on condition of anonymity
Quote: "According to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valerii Zaluzhnyi – the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February – the military picture is grim.
The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to "penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts."
Details: One senior military source claimed that "nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers".
The source believes only Ukrainian resilience and endurance, as well as mistakes by the Russian command, can change the grim dynamics.
Senior Ukrainian officers also stressed that relying on Russian mistakes is not a strategy, and they bitterly recalled the errors that they said undermined the Ukrainian resistance from the very start – mistakes made by both the West and Ukraine.
They also spoke ill of Western "foot-dragging", arguing that supplies and weapons systems arrived too late and in insufficient quantities to make a difference if they could have.
One officer said that Zaluzhnyi named it "the War of One Chance".
Politico pointed out that it now depends on where Russia decides to focus its forces in the offensive, which is expected to begin this summer: "In a pre-offensive pummeling – stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south – Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push."
Ukrainian officers said they now need more basic conventional weapons, as well as drones: "We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets."
This source estimated that Ukraine needs 4 million shells and 2 million UAVs.
The officers stressed that they also need many, many more soldiers. Politico reported that Ukraine currently does not have enough troops on the front line, which exacerbates the problem of insufficient Western support.
In addition, the sources say that Ukraine is currently facing not only a military crisis but also a political one. They emphasised that while Ukraine is avoiding major conscription, "Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner".
Background:
Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, stated that Russia was forming a new contingent of troops consisting of more than 100,000 soldiers and that the Russians may attempt an offensive along part of the Ukrainian front this summer.
With the onset of summer, the threat of a new large-scale offensive by Russian occupation forces along the entire line of contact is growing, writes the UK edition of the Economist.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the Russians may be preparing to conduct a new offensive, which is expected late in May or June. He did not specify which front was at risk.
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