Pockets of growth in north suburbs buck Allegheny County population decline

Apr. 8—Hari and Shyamala Elluru of Franklin Park have moved around a lot for work since arriving in the U.S. from India in 2013.

Before moving to Green Tree four years ago, the Highmark Health software developer and his wife lived in Colorado, Texas and Connecticut.

But a search for the best school they could find for their daughter and son meant packing up and moving one more time.

"Our children's education is very important to us, and North Allegheny is one of the best in Pennsylvania," said Elluru, 40.

The family, who is currently renting after being unable to find an affordable house in the area, is part of a growing trend of people moving to the North Hills, drawn by highly rated schools and roads that make commuting to Downtown Pittsburgh or to Cranberry in Butler County relatively easy.

Several municipalities in the North Hills saw some of the largest population increases over the past decade, according to data from the American Community Survey, which is collected every year by the Census Bureau. It is sent to a sample of people across the country, resulting in population estimates for years between the decennial census.

Franklin Park, where the Elluru's reside, grew by 12% between 2010 and 2019, data shows. In that same period, Ohio Township saw the largest increase over the past decade, growing by almost 50%, or more than 2,100 people. That was followed by Marshall Township, which saw a 35% increase in residents, or more than 2,350 people.

The influx of residents has triggered a building boom of high-end housing to meet buyer demand.

In a single development alone — Venango Trails in Marshall — 500 homes have been built since 2011 on the former golf course property. The homes range between $375,000 to more than $1 million, according to Nicole Hanson, Marshall's director of planning.

"Cost does not appear to be a deterrent for people buying or building here," she said.

Hanson said the reasons people most often give for moving to the North Hills have not changed during the 16 years she has helped guide the community's growth.

"The North Hills is attractive because of its close access to I-79 and the Turnpike, the North Allegheny School District and the overall high quality of life here," she said. "You can be 20 minutes from Downtown and still live in a rural atmosphere."

Growth in the northern part of the county largely is bucking both countywide and regional trends that, for decades, have reflected shrinking populations because of the aging of residents who remain in the region and a lack of younger generations moving to the area.

While Allegheny County is not immune to those trends, several factors have led to the stabilization of its population over the past decade as the rate at which shrinkage occurs slows, leading local leaders to declare the county a success story compared to Rust Belt towns across the country.

Stabilizing populations

Over the past decade, numbers from the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program suggest Allegheny County lost 7,300 people, which would bring the population to about 1.21 million people in 2019, mirroring the county's population between 1920 and 1930.

Like much of Southwestern Pennsylvania, the county's population decline began when the steel industry collapsed during the 1970s and 1980s. During that period, the county's population dropped by 155,000 people.

"People moved away, the jobs weren't here," said Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald. "It was really an economic exodus that occurred. It wasn't about quality of life, it wasn't about neighborhoods, it really was opportunities."

Repercussions from the loss of manufacturing jobs continued over the next several decades as people continued to leave the county. Census data shows that between 1980 and 1990, the county lost 113,700 people; 1990-2000, 54,700 people and 2000-2010, 58,318 people.

According to Chris Briem, a regional economist at the University of Pittsburgh, in the years surrounding 2010, two major things happened that helped stabilize populations: Fracking of the Marcellus shale excelled, and PNC established a large downtown presence, helping the Pittsburgh region recover at a faster pace from the Great Recession.

Pennsylvania, which has been a top contender in the oil industry, quickly generated jobs in the oil and gas industry, growing by 15,114 jobs between 2007 and 2012. By 2012, 30,000 jobs across Pennsylvania were created as a result of shale gas production, data shows, including pipeline construction, support activities and drilling.

In that same period, Allegheny County had the largest increase in oil and natural gas employment, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor. Data shows that between 2007 and 2012, employment increased by 1,283 for a total of 1,730.

That growth was coupled with the expansion of PNC Bank in Pittsburgh's Downtown area. The financial services group expanded its footprint with the opening of a new tower in 2015, bringing with it space for 2,000 employees.

As those industries largely grew during the first half of the decade, they helped stabilize the economy shattered by the 2007-09 Great Recession. A 2012 report from the Brookings Institution designated Pittsburgh as one of three fully recovered cities at the time.

"It was a pretty good decade economically for Allegheny County," said Jim Futrell, vice president of market research and analysis with Allegheny Conference. "The jobs were being added. Early in the decade, the economy here in the region was doing a lot better than it was elsewhere in the country and as a result, we were better able to retain our population. So I think that helped stabilize things early in the decade. We've been able to continue with that moving forward."

Still, the growth seen over the decade was not enough to counteract shrinkage because of migration and natural deaths. Another factor, Briem said, was that fracking largely contracted in Pennsylvania by the end of the decade, when 23,738 jobs were reported in the natural gas industry, according to a 2020 Pennsylvania Energy Employment Report.

"The trends for the future of the region I predict are fairly flat," Briem said. "I think the challenges going forward are that ... we're still an older region. Certainly outside the county, but even within the county we're still a relatively older region so we're not going to see any gains from natural population growth anytime soon."

Future possibilities

In the North Hills, only time will tell if the area will continue to grow. Interest from buyers and developers might be a good indicator of that, said Hanson.

Still, some areas have not been immune to declines seen across the region (West View: -2.87%; Bellevue: -2.73%; Shaler: -2.34%; and Ross: -1.64%). In these areas, it comes down to space.

"Communities such as Ross and McCandless just don't have room for large-scale developments with 500 or 600 homes," said McCandless Town Manager Bob Grimm. "New homes are being built, but they typically are smaller projects or are being built in areas that can be redeveloped."

As individual communities experience spurts of growth or decline, changes in Allegheny County will likely depend on trends seen across the country in terms of natural population shrinking and aging populations, Futrell said.

Despite those challenges, however, Fitzgerald is positive numbers will eventually flip, showing positive populations rather than declines.

He attributed that to new construction in residential and commercial structures, the diversification of the economy, and the increase in members of the Hispanic and Asian communities that has been seen over the past decade.

"There's just a lot of different areas that are growing here in this region," Fitzgerald said.

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