Pensacola could see a 'hyperactive' 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Here's what to know
Last year may have been a brief reprieve from the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, the third costliest year on record, racking up $116 billion in damage in Florida alone. But the first official forecasts for this year underline the word brief.
Accuweather is expecting an “explosive” 2024 hurricane season with the potential to break the record of 30 named storms in a single season.
In its forecast, Accuweather warned that the Florida Panhandle, along with Texas, South Florida and the Carolinas, saw elevated risks this year.
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“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
Meteorologists warned people and businesses to start preparing now for the upcoming season. AccuWeather forecasters said there are signs now the first named system of the season could spin up before June 1, which is the official start of the season.
The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University will release their first predictions in the coming weeks.
AccuWeather’s 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
AccuWeather is already warning people that this year’s hurricane season could be hyperactive while urging residents in Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas to begin preparations sooner rather than later. Here’s a look at the first official forecast:
20-25 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
4-6 direct U.S. impacts
Texas, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas face heightened risk
Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season
2024 Atlantic hurricane season could dry up list of named storms — again
It’s a worrying sign that AccuWeather is already gearing up expectations that we could run out of hurricane names for the upcoming 2024 hurricane season — a feat that has only happened twice, in 2005 and 2020.
This season is expected to see between 20 to 25 named storms. Eight to 12 of those storms are forecasted to develop into hurricanes, while four to six could impact the United States.
“There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” said DaSilva.
Florida Panhandle residents should prepare for heighted risk
When meteorologists create long-ranging forecasts, they analyze analog years, which are past years with similar weather patterns to current conditions.
Those conditions now include a potential La Niña, which can lead to more severe hurricanes in the Atlantic. One of the analog years meteorologists are looking at is 2016, which spawned Hurricane Matthew, the strongest tropical cyclone to affect the First Coast of Florida since 1898.
Hurricane Matthew was a Category 5 hurricane that never officially made landfall in the Sunshine State. Instead, it moved parallel to Florida’s coast as a Category 3, coming within about 20 miles of the shore. The storm was so powerful that it still accrued $1.173 billion in damage across Florida, causing three direct and 11 indirect deaths.
DaSilva said that Florida is always vulnerable to tropical systems, but what sets this year apart is the data derived from these analog years. In a graphic provided by AccuWeather, the historical data shows a cluster of hurricane landfall locations around the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.
What was the last hurricane to impact Pensacola?
Hurricane Sally, a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane in 2020, was the last major hurricane to hit the Pensacola area. It underlined the importance of taking every hurricane seriously.
Coincidentally, the storm was also the first major hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since Hurricane Ivan in 2004, landing on the same date in the same spot.
Hurricane Sally landed in Gulf Shores, Alabama, at 5 a.m. on Sept. 16 with maximum sustained winds of 105. The storm produced widespread wind, storm surge and freshwater flooding across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Hurricane Sally damage: Hurricane Sally damage in Pensacola, Escambia County, Santa Rosa County, Walton County
Much of the damage was due to the storm’s extremely slow-moving nature — roughly 5 mph at landfall. Sally essentially hovered over the area, which prolonged and exacerbated the local impacts as hurricane-force winds, storm surge and torrential rainfall hammered the area.
Ultimately, Sally dropped 15-30 inches of rain across Baldwin County and the western Florida Panhandle. Pensacola saw over 24 inches of rainfall, and the storm surge reached up to 5.6 feet.
Perhaps most memorable to Pensacola area residents was the indirect partial collapse of sections of the Pensacola Bay Bridge, which cut off direct access between Pensacola and Gulf Breeze for months while Skanska worked on repairs.
Could there be a tropical cyclone before the official start of hurricane season?
Yes, and May storms typically form closer to the coast, meaning there is less time for residents to react.
Pre-season tropical cyclones often develop out of cold fronts that move down and stall in the Gulf of Mexico. Those storms could "pop up quickly," DaSilva said.
What should you do now, before hurricane season starts?
DaSilva said what he recommends, especially for those who live along the coast, is:
Have a hurricane plan so you know what you're going to do, especially if you need to react quickly and a system rapidly intensifies at the last minute.
Check your evacuation zone to see if it has been updated based on the latest computer models.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: 2024 hurricane season in Florida Panhandle could be 'hyperactive'
